Ncaa Football Predictions - December 06, 2008

As good as last week was for us in NFL, it was that bad in college football. We have comeback on our minds as we roll with five picks from Championship Saturday.

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: East Carolina at Tulsa (Saturday 12/06 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Tulsa -12 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

At the beginning of the year it looked as though this East Carolina team was going to be special. They had back-to-back eye-opening upsets over Virginia Tech, who's playing in the ACC Championship game, and West Virginia. It got them into the top 25, but it was all downhill from there. The injuries started cropping up, and this team began to lose games and  their swagger in the process. What was a 3-0 start and national ranking fell to 5-4 in their last nine games, and they needed OT to win two of the five. Tulsa has the top offense in the country averaging 579 yards and 49.3 points per game. QB David Johnson has thrown 42 TD passes for 3,671 yards. The Golden Hurricanes feature four players that have caught seven or more TDs on the season, so they have truly been impossible to defend. The Tulsa defense doesn't look that good, because the offense usually strikes quickly, and leaves the defense on the field for extended periods. The Golden Hurricane defense has 36 sacks on the season. The bottom line here is that the Hurricanes have too many options on offense and the Pirates don't enough firepower to strike back. The eventuality of this one is that the Pirates are going to wear out chasing this Tulsa offense. I see them winning going away and will play Tulsa here.

Everyone seems to be incredulous that the #1 team in the nation could be getting ten points. How can Bama not be the pick here? There's actualyl good reason. It would seem suitable that the Gators met the Sooners in the National Championship game. These two teams have absolutely destroyed everyone in their path the last month or so of the season. After their loss to the Rebels, the Gators have won every game they have played in the SEC by 28 points or more. In their seven conference games the average margin has been an amazing 38 points per game, and there are some good teams in the mix that they have destroyed. Many thought the South Carolina defense would slow down the Gators and give them a game for awhile, but Florida ended up putting 56 on the Gamecocks' No. 1 ranked defense in the SEC. That No. 1 position is now held by Alabama. The Tide rolled through their season in flawless fashion, but is going to have a tough time matching up with the Gators' multitude of weapons and speed. The Gators have a Heisman QB who has thrown just two INTs all season. And the Gators just don't turn the ball over. Special teams are another area where Florida excels, so there is no time to rest against this team. Rainey and Harvin are each averaging an unthinkable 8+ yards a carry on the ground. The Tide gets credit for the big defense, but the Gators are ranked No. 7 in the country in that category. They are also No. 17 on offense, while the Tide is down at No. 54. Florida has the advantage on both sides of the ball and special teams, with speed at the skill positions, plus a QB advantage. I look for them to win this one going away and meet Oklahoma for the National Championship.

These teams have both had disappointing finishes down the stretch. Western Kentucky opened with promise at 2-2, but has since dropped seven straight games. Florida International has been equally bad as they enter this one having lost four of their last five games. They are coming off what has to be their worst loss of the season as they blew two leads of 14 points in the fourth quarter a week ago and dropped the game in OT. That game has had to leave this Golden Panther team depleted mentally, physically, and emotionally. It is hard to imagine them playing with much energy in this one, as at 4-7 there is no Bowl game, and after a game like that against a 2-9 opponent, they are glad to see the curtain come down on this season. Despite the Panthers offensive explosion a week ago, this is not a big-offensive team. Both teams are, in a sense, mirror images of each other. For a Panther team that just came out of an emotional devastating loss with nothing to play for, I'll give the edge to Western Kentucky here with the points.

The Oklahoma Sooners can likely play themselves into a National Championship game with a win in the Big 12 Title game over Missouri. The Sooners have been absolutely destroying all comers of late. It appears they are a different team than the one that lost to Texas and followed with an uninspired 14-point win over Kansas. In their last five games against Big 12 opponents (including some good ones), the Sooners are winning by 32.6 ppg - simply amazing. For Missouri the season was a good one, but fell short of expectations as they too felt like they had a National Championship-caliber team. But they just couldn't survive against the better teams in a very tough conference. The Tigers dropped three games, and that was without Texas Tech or Oklahoma on the schedule. Oklahoma is on a mission and Missouri was blown out by Texas. Missouri just hasn't measured up to the standards set by last year's team - and that team lost by 21 to the Sooners in the Championship game. These teams met twice last year, and although they were both high-scoring teams, both games went UNDER the total set for this one as they scored 72 in their regular season matchup and just 55 in the Championship game. As explosive as the Sooners have been over the last month, they are 8-0 to the UNDER in December games in their last eight, while the Tigers are 4-1 to the UNDER after allowing more than 280 passing yards in their last game. This total has reached the point where the only value is in the UNDER. Take the UNDER as well as the Sooners to win convincingly and move into the National Championship game.

Results: 2-3

NCAA Football Picks Resources:

• Here we show our How we pick college football winners.
• Updated today: 2008 college football team previews.
• Here we show our NCAA football Game Analysis.
• Check out our updated college football previous picks.
• Here we show our football sports book reviews.
• View our 2008 college football picks results here.
• Here we show our college football ATS records.
• View our Football spreads here.
• Read our college football game prediction here.
• Check out our updated college football blog.

Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-December-27-2008
This should be the top Bowl game prior to New Year's Day. Boise State is undefeated and TCU has just two losses that came to teams heading to BCS Bowls. The public has made their claim here, and i...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-27-2008
The Gamecocks are probably an offensive skill player and a QB away from being a great team. They rank 11th in the country on defense, despite getting blown out by Florida, who is doing that to everyon...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-25-2008
Northern Illinois will enter this one with the No. 21 ranked defense in the country allowing just 18.3 ppg. The fact that Navy will provide a one-dimensional attack should allow the Huskies to stack t...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-20-2008
Buffalo may be better than even their 6-4 record would indicate. Their four losses have come to Missouri, Pittsburgh, Central Michigan and Western Michigan. They have yet to lose to a team from the MA...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-18-2008
Kent State has not had a lot of success as they have lived and died by their talented QB Julian Edelman. Edelman leads the team with over 1,000 yards rushing and has thrown for 1,580 yards as well. Th...