Football Handicapping - December 05, 2009

As the regular season wraps up, we have five picks for Friday and Saturday's college football action including a pick in the big SEC Championship game between #2 Alabama and #1 Florida. We look forward to the Bowls as a new season. Good luck this week...

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Ohio vs. C. Michigan (Friday 12/04 8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 53 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Dan LeFevour is the MAC's all-0time leader in passing yards and he is the main reason the Chippewas are double-digit favorites here. His team scored 34.2 points per game this season and Ohio scored 26.7, so this total is set in the 50s. But, the fact is, Central Michigan did most of their offensive damage at home this year. At home they put up 476 yards and over 50 points per game. But away from the cozy home field, those numbers drop precipitously to 381 yards and 22.6 points per game. Their defense however remained stout, giving up 18 ppg on average, home and away. I like this one to go UNDER.

E. Carolina defends their CUSA championship in this game against the high-flying Cougars. While Houston's offense can certainly get it done, their defense is among the worst in the nation. When they are playing bad teams, it doesn't matter. But, when facing a legitimate team, they can struggle. In the second half of the season, Houston played two solid programs in Tulsa and UCF, both on the road as they are here. They lost one of those outright and were 0-2 ATS. So, while they have shown the ability to absolutely crush mediocre competition, and play well at home, there are questions when they head to the road vs. a formidable opponent. On the road this Cougars teams is allowing a ridiculous 36 points per game, so expect E. Carolina to have success when they have the ball. And, given that the Pirates defense has allowed just 18 points per game at home, they should also have success slowing down Case Keenum and the Houston offense. Houston is 0-6 ATS since last season when coming off back-to-back wins. Over the past three seasons they are 0-7 ATS as a road favorite of a TD or less. Meanwhile, E. Carolina is 21-10 ATS as an underdog under Skip Holtz. I like the Pirates at home plus the points.

West Virginia opened as a 2.5 point favorite but now find themselves getting points in this game. I think the oddsmakers had it right the first time. The Mountaineers aren't playing for the Big East championship, but they are going Bowling. And, a win here will likely earn them a spot in a prestigious New Year's day game instead of something much less exciting. A 3-point loss to Cincinnati on November 13 is what kept them out of the Championship game, but we can look for positives in that game. The Mountaineers were double-digit dogs to a very powerful Bearcats team and it was a fight as they lost by just a field goal. West Virginia also lost to South Florida two games prior and Auburn earlier in the year. The only loss that was a bad one was vs. S. Florida. Otherwise they have won every game they were supposed to win this season and they aren't being asked to cover a big number here. They are 2-1 ATS this season as a dog and they are coming off a confidence-building win over Pittsburgh. West Virginia has won 15 straight vs. Rutgers and are 30-4-2 all-time in the series. I like the Mountaineers to get it done here.

The most anticipated game of the year is here with #1 Florida taking on #2 Alabama. This game may make the National Championship game pale in comparison. The winner gets to play in that game and the loser's hopes of a national title are gone. With the stakes so high, expect high-intensity and high nerves - both helping a play on the UNDER. Mark Ingram, Alabama's Heisman-hopeful running back injured his hip and was limited to just 30 yards and 1.9 yards per carry in Friday's game vs. Auburn. Oh, and these defenses are pretty good. Florida owns the #1 defense in the country and it's the reason they are here. This team has allowed a ridiculous 9.8 points per game! No opponent has scored more than 20 points on the Gators all season. Bama's defense is right there, ranked 3rd in the nation. They are 2nd in the country in points allowed, behind Florida at 10.8 points per game. The most this team gave up this season was 24 - and that was all the way back in early September in their opener. So, we have the top two defenses in the land, giving up a combined 20.6 points per game, and this total is set twice that high. Yes, these are good offenses, but not elite offenses. The defenses should dictate. The Tide are 17-5 UNDER in their last 22 games vs. teams that rush for 200+ yards per game. High intensity and low-scoring is what I expect in this game.

The fact that Cal is just a TD favorite over Washington here says a lot about both teams. California was ranked 12th in the nation to start the season and was supposed to challenge for the Pac-10 championship. But, after blowout losses to Oregon and USC, that was over. They come into this game however off strong performances vs. Arizona and Stanford, holding those teams to 44 combined points. Washington is 3-1 at home vs. conference foes, holding USC, Stanford, Arizona and Washington state to an average of just 20 points per game. Cal's offense has averaged just 23.8 points per game over their last four. Their last game vs. Stanford saw 62 points scored and under head coach Jeff Tedford, this team is 14-5 UNDER on the road coming off an OVER and 19-10 UNDER after a game in which 60+ points were scored. I expect this one to go UNDER the total.

Results: 4-1

NCAA Football Picks Resources:

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• Updated today: 2009 football prior pick season results.
• Check out our updated college football ATS standings.
• View How we pick college football winners here.
• Here we show our NCAA football lines and odds.
• Check out our updated 2009 college football team previews .

Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-26-2009
Central Michigan has locked up the MAC West at 7-0 and will be likely playing 7-0 Temple for the MAC Title. The Huskies have had a good year at 7-4, and an eighth win could be enticing to Bowl Committ...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-19-2009
How bad is it in Colorado? Really bad. No one but the clueless Colorado AD has any confidence in Dan Hawkins anymore. His record speaks for himself and the Buffs simply can't compete in the Big 12...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-18-2009
Central Michigan has a big date next week with Northern Illinois which could determine the team that plays Temple for the MAC Title. I wouldn't look for them to expend much energy here. Their offe...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-12-2009
The Red Hawks finally got a win a couple of weeks ago, but still enter this one at 1-8. They have been out-scored by an average of 17.7 points per game on the season. Their defense ranks No. 73 in NCA...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-05-2009
The Northern Illinois Huskies sit at 3-1 in the MAC West, just a game behind Central Michigan and just one game from becoming eligible for a Bowl game. This certainly isn't the spot for them to ta...