darrell,

We had a solid winning week 13 going 4-2 with a push. We are looking forward to the Bowls coming up as we started off 2005 going 6-2 and 2005 going 8-0. But we have one more week before that. Three picks from the smaller board this weekend.

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We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Army vs. Navy (Saturday 12/02 2:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Navy -20

This is a game that traditionally draws more attention based on what it stands for, rather than the quality of the game itself. It is a big deal though for all the military personnel involved in this one. What you will always hear around these big rivalry games is "throw the records out," because the game takes on a life of its own. That may be true in some rivalries, but it is completely false in this one. It may be true when both teams are bad, which is more often the case than not, but certainly not true when one is good and the other is horrible, such as we have here. This will be the fourth consecutive year a Navy team brings a winning record into this game vs. an Army team that brings in a losing record. Navy is 27-13 during these four years while Army is 9-33. It is a chance for the seniors to sweep for Navy, and a last chance at victory for the Army seniors. Don't throw the records out, as you may be led to believe. Here is why. Navy has come into this game with a winning record in this game five times in the last 22 years when Army has faced those teams with a losing record of their own. Navy has not only won all 5 games, but covered all 5 games by an average of 19 points a game! What it means is when two teams come into this game with the fire, and there is an extreme difference in talent, the game has always become one-sided. The last three Navy teams have won by an average of 25.3 ppg. The trends favor Navy as well. Army is 4-23 ATS in their last 27 after rushing for less than 100 yards in their previous game. Navy is 27-5 ATS when they held their last opponent to under 275 total yards. They are 40-16 ATS vs a team with a losing record. This one is for the Navy.

It is sometimes tough for a team that wins so many games in a row, coming off a big intense battle and loss, to travel into another one. Arkansas coach Houston Nutt in his own words claimed they lost simply because they can't throw the ball. That was all too familiar last year when they ran all over the field but finished 4-7. Florida has some very faint hopes of playing for a national championship, but alot must happen, and it begins by winning here. Florida has not been beaten at home since October of 2004, and we don't expect them to here either. These teams match-up fairly evenly in offense and defense, save one area. Florida is the #6 ranked rushing defense in the country, and they will go to school on what didn't work for LSU, knowing the Razorback passing attack is inept, and that should be the difference maker here. Gators!

The oddsmakers have a very difficult time with this Hawaii team. You can only post a total so high. But so far, none have been high enough to hold a Hawaii game. Colt Brennan is now just 3 TD passes away from tying David Klinglers all time mark of 54. You can almost be certain he will throw a minimum of 4 in this game. Oregon State has done fairly well this season defensively, except when they have faced superb passing teams. Their highest points allowed came against the top passing teams on their schedule. Boise State the #13 ranked offense got 42. California the #14 ranked offense got 41. USC the #25 ranked offense got 31. Hawaii brings in the top ranked offense, one that nets 435 yards per game vs. the #86 ranked pass defense. Oregon State is ranked #38 in passing offense, so the ball will be in the air a lot. The fact is Hawaii has played 9 straight OVERs and in the last 8 games, all have topped the 72 total of this game. Hawaii is 21-5-1 OVER in its last 27 at home. They are 27-7-1 OVER in last 35 at night. Records are up to be broken in this one and the balls will be flying, and the total should soar above this 72.