Ncaa Basketball Expert Picks - November 29, 2009

We went 3-4 last night. Today we have five college basketball plays...

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Long Beach State at U C L A (2:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 134.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

UCLA has scored just 57 points per game in their two road games. Under Ben Howland, this team is 41-25 UNDER when the total is posted in the 130s. In all non-conference games under Howland the Bruins are 43-31 UNDER. And, in the Howland era in road games vs. teams that hit 45%+ from the field, UCLA is 39-25 UNDER. West Virginia, Notre Dame and Clemson all put up big numbers vs. Long Beach State, but UCLA doesn't have that kind of firepower. I like this game to go UNDER.

I like both Arkansas and Wyoming on the moneyline a lot today. You can certainly play them straight-up on the moneyline, but I'm going to throw them in a parlay here at -150 odds. Arkansas plays South Alabama who has already played seven games this season, posting a 5-2 mark. But, they own just one ATS win and they are 0-2 in true road games. The Razorbacks have certainly looked bad, falling to Morgan State and Eastern Tennessee State, but they should be able to handle things here at home. They desperately need a win and while it may not come by double-digits, I think they play hard and get it. A loss drops them to 2-4 while a win props them up to .500. The Razorbacks have averaged 91 points per game (98 at home) and South Alabama will really struggle to keep up with that. I'm backing Arkansas on the moneyline big here. Wyoming faces Pepperdine in a game Wyoming needs to avoid dropping to 2-5. I believe this to be a good matchup for Wyoming, a team that is 25-5 straight-up in their last 30 home games when posted as a 1-65 to -250 favorite. They are also 16-3 straight-up at home in their last 19 after playing back-to-back home games. Under head coach Tom Asbury, the Waves are just 8-21 vs. teams like Wyoming that outscore their opponents by 4+ ppg. He is also 3-11 vs. teams that average over 77 ppg. Parlay these two teams on the moneyline.

There are some concerns with this USC team. They are 2-1, but their wins have come vs. Cal Riverside and Coppin State. In their loss, they were favored by 12 points over Loyola Marymount and lost outright by eight points. Nebraska is 3-1 on the season. They also suffered an upset loss but they were a small one-basket favorite in that one. They posted a very impressive 13 point win over TCU and they just appear to be the better team here. Over the past two seasons, the Trojans are just 9-13 straight-up when facing a team that shoots 45%+ from the field. They are also 34-47 vs. teams that give up under 65 points per game. I like Nebraska here. I also like the OVER. Nebraska has averaged just 60.7 ppg allowed and USC 59 per game. But, those numbers are biased based on the competition. Nebraska has played only two quality foes and they gave up 69 and 77 in these games. USC has played no one good yet and still gave up 67 in each of two games. Both of these offenses are going to have success here and I like this one to go OVER.

Wyoming has lost three straight, but I like them to get healthy today vs. Pepperdine. The Cowboys started the season 2-1 but then fell to Denver by three as a 6.5 point dog, notching their second-straight ATS win. But then they stumbled vs. Monmouth and Hampton. They are in need of a win and they should be able to get it here. Pepperdine doesn't have the offense to hang with Wyoming here. The Cowboys are averaging 81 ppg on the season and 85 per game in their last five games. I like Wyoming minus the points.

Results: 1-4

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Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

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