Basketball Gambling Ncaa Pick - March 30, 2008
We hit with our lone pick yesterday bumping our NCAA Tourney picks up to +7.8 units. Today we have picks in both games...
Bracket Update: Our bracket has the four teams left in Memphis, Texas, Kansas and UCLA.
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Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:
Game: Texas vs. Memphis (2:20 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Texas +3.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
We liked Texas over Stanford and they didn't dissapoint. As we stated in our writeup for that game, the late stages of this tournament are about quality guard play and it doesn't get any better than Augustin and Abrams. They took one of the best inside games in the country and made it irrelevant with their quickness. Now, we get the Longhorns plus 3.5 points and we are loving it. Sure, Memphis is the #1 seed but Texas is as good or better than the Tigers. The talk of Memphis early in the tournament focused on whether their horrendious free-throw shooting would hurt them. This team hits 59.1% from the line. 59%!! Well, so far they have cruised and it hasn't been an issue. But guess what? The further they go here, the better teams they face. The further they go, the more likely there will be a close game with increased pressure. The further they go, the more likely free throws will decide the outcome of the game. In the first round Memphis was a 26-point favorite. Then 9.5. Finally 5.5 last game. Now the line is down to 3.5. Guess what - we are now in that range where this could very well play the deciding role. And, when backing an underdog, we know that often times you can lose your bet in a close game as the favorite gets up late and the underdog must foul. Typically, the favorite hits 70%-80% of their free shots and often times turns a close game into a big win, covering the spread. Well, if Memphis is up late and Texas must foul, we have a 4+ out of 10 shot they are going to miss their charity throws. But, we aren't convinced Memphis will be up. Texas's defense has been playing as well as Memphis' of late. They are clicking. The Longhorns are 15-8 ATS this season vs. great defensive opponents (those holding foes to 42% or less from the field) so don't assume Memphis' great defense will shut them down. Texas has covered the spread in three of their last five games and 11 of their last 16. Meanwhile, Memphis is just 2-4 ATS in their last six and 6-12 ATS in their last eighteen. We believe Memphis to be slightly overrated and Texas slightly underrated. We give Texas an even shot at winning this game outright and in a close game, we like their chances a lot. Unless it's a Memphis blowout, the Tiger's terrible free-throw shooting could be the difference here so we'll take the dog and the points.
Game: Davidson vs. Kansas (5:05 PM Eastern)Pick: 5 units on Davidson +9.5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)Pick: 4 units on Game Total OVER 146 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)
We were on Davidson over Wisconsin and felt we were getting value on them in that game. It's only getting better! It's hard for most to understand just how good this Davidson team is. If the uniform said North Carolina, or Kentucky on it, the feeling would be different. But it says Davidson, and that's value remains on this Cinderella. Most believe this team consists of Stephon Curry and four role players, which is where most go wrong. This is a physical, fundamentally sound TEAM. They have lots of talent, along with the best player in the country on their side. Curry isn't just a tournament phenom. He has played six games now vs Duke, North Carolina, UCLA, Gonzaga, Georgetown and Wisconsin. They all had a plan to stop him, but he has averaged over 30 ppg against these six elite programs. Davidson has beaten the West Coast Champ, the Big-10 Champ, and the Big East Champ to get here, as well as playing close to the Pac-10 Champ, and the ACC Champ! What else could you ask for? Davidson also scrimmaged Texas, and beat them up. Why is Kansas any different? Even if Curry has an off-game, this team is not necessarily doomed. Curry shot 2-12 from three vs North Carolina on the road in Charlotte, and the Wildcats lost by just 4 points. He shot just 3-10 from beyond the arc against Duke, and they lost by 6, again on the road. Right now, he is in a zone, getting 30+ in the flow of the game, not just jacking up shots. This team is poised and experienced, and doesn't get intimidated or panic. They were down 17 to Georgetown in the 2nd half, and came back to win. They aren't just competing and covering against the heavyweights, they are beating them, and looking like the better team in the process. Wisconsin was 24-2 in their last 26, with two losses by 5 or less. Davidson destroyed them. There is always a "but" when teams like this win. Wisconsin gave up 70 points once in their last 26 games, Davidson topped them all. Georgetown gave up 70 points twice in their last 25 games, Davidson scored 74! Gonzaga gave up 80 points three times the entire season (excluding OT games) to Tennessee, UConn and Memphis, and Davidson got 82! The talk is they are no secret anymore and that Kansas will be ready. Did it really take this long for that to happen? They have played all the best teams, from all the power conferences - teams that have a combined record of 183-26 vs the best competition out there, and not a single one of these games has been played on their home court, and combined they have out-scored them! Close your eyes for a minute and think about that. Forget the name on the uniform that says Davidson. Imagine someone said described to you this game setting. Team A has played tight with or beaten UCLA, Gonzaga, Wisconsin, Duke, North Carolina and Georgetown, all on the road, and has won 25 straight games. They have a player that is averaging 34.3 ppg in the Tourney. Are they a favorite or an underdog? This team is getting 9.5 points, and you will not often find that kind of value. The near-double-digit line is based on the uniform that says Davidson, not on the heart and talent of the team playing. We will take Davidson here, and we also like the OVER. Remember this team has scored more on these big teams than any of the power teams on their schedule. They like to run, as does Kansas, so this will not be a half-court game. This game is a pick-em game, and the winner gets 80+.
Results: 1-2
NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-29-2008
UCLA is on a mission. They aren't playing blow-out basketball, squeaking by Texas A&M and Western Kentucky in the pat two rounds. But as they have done all season, they just find a way to win....
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-28-2008
This game, as is the case in most Badger games, has ugly written all over it. Wisconsin certainly doesn't win with offense as they average just 67.6 ppg. Their calling card is defense. They allow ...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-27-2008
The Tar Heels haven't just won this year, they have won big. They have an amazing 26 double-digit wins on the season and are absolutely clicking on offense right now. Washington State is capable o...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-25-2008
UMass is just 10-7 away from home, allowing 78.8 ppg. At home, the Cuse is 16-5, producing more points per game and allowing fewer than the Minutemen. UMass is coming off a 68-63 win over Akron. The p...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-24-2008
Ohio got here behind a great team effort as all five starters reached double figures in their 80-74 win over Brown. Bradley was deadly from the line in their win over Cincinnati. Without their 26-for-...
