Free Ncaa Nba Picks - March 29, 2009

We went 7-1 for +26 units in the Sweet 16! The big score came thanks to hitting all five parlays including the big +160 four-teamer. This newsletter contains all the picks for the Elite 8 weekend games. Good luck to you.

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Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Villanova vs. Pittsburgh (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 141 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The Villanova Wildcats and the Pittsburgh Panthers square-off in a regional final ensuring at least one Big East team will be in the Final Four. These teams have a history of playing very ugly games, which is another word used interchangeably with defense. On the seniors’ watches (last four years), these teams have not sniffed anything close to this total as they have played to 130 or less in every matchup, and that goes back even further as just one of the last 10 meetings has managed to top even 130. Villanova has been an under machine when posted as a dog, as they have played UNDER to the tune of 24-8-1 in their last 33 as a dog. The Panthers have notched six-straight UNDERs against teams with a straight-up winning record. This one is set too high, so UNDER gets the call.

Our NCAA tournament moneyline system is now up to 57-1 after our four wins in the Sweet 16. So of course I'm going to ride it again. As a reminder, this system takes a subset of tournament favorites on the moneyline. For more detail on it, you can review the writeup from the Sweet 16. While upsets do happen in the tournament, there are a subset of games that almost never result in an upset and I have found those games. Two games in the Elite 8 qualify for this system and I'm putting them together in a 5-unit two-team parlay.

While I know many people don't like laying three to win one, I think it would be a disservice to leave these moneyline plays out. Afterall, the subset I have identified is now 57-1 over the last four years. Subscribers that played the four teams last round on the moneylines at 4-units each (lines ranging from -300 to -500) scooped another 4.4 units on top of the winnings from the official picks. So, if you don't like playing these types of plays, fine - just pass and focus on the parlay above. But, I do think there's tremendous value on the straight moneyline plays at -310 as well. The reasoning/math is described below...

Is laying -310 crazy? As a general rule, across all favorites of this size, it might be. But sports betting is about identifying value and pouncing. The break-even winning percentage for a -310 favorite is about 76%. If you placed 100 bets at -310 on teams and they won 76 of the 100 bets, you'd break even. Anything below 76 and you lose and anything above 76 and you win. So, if we can convince ourselves that in these games, the favorites will win more than 76 times, then it's a good bet. Now, if we expect 77 wins or maybe even 80 wins, it might make sense to pass. The value is low. But what if we expect much more than 76? Then it's worth consideration! Given that these two teams qualify for my system that is now 57-1, my expectation is much higher than 76%. With 57 wins out of 58, we have a win rate of 98.3%. If we use that figure, then we would expect 98 wins out of 100 (instead of 76)! The "fair moneyline" on these games would be -5700, and we are laying just -310. Now, granted, 98% is probably a bit too optimistic. But we have a lot of "wiggle" room between 76 and 98. So, I think there's tremendous value on these moneyline plays and I'm going with them each for 5-units as well.

Results: 1-3

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Hop over to our NCAA basketball sports handicapping philosophy here.
• Take a look at our NCAA basketball Game Analysis here.
• Check out our updated college basketball blog.
• Read our 2008 NCAA basketball betting preview here.
• Take a look at our 2008 college basketball pick results here.
• Read our ncaa march madness picks here.
• Read our free college basketball pick here.
• View our updated ncaa tournament picks.
• Don't forget to visit our NCAA basketball ATS records.
• Read our college basketball odds here.
• Don't forget to visit our NCAA basketball picks.
• View our college basketball sportsbook reviews here.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-25-2009
The Huskies seem to be peaking at just the right time. A.J. Price is playing like an All-American. He averaged 14.6 ppg on the season, but has taken that up to 24.5 ppg over his last six games. Perhap...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-24-2009
Many would believe this Gators team would be disappointed in not being in the NCAA Tournament, and surely they are, but Coach Donovan doesn't allow them to be a no-show. That was evident by last y...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-22-2009
Arizona State, the sixth seed, is just a two-point underdog here to the number three seed. Why so little? Because they have a great shot at winning this. In my bracket, I had ASU making it to the Swee...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-21-2009
We are down to the round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament, and one can't help but notice that 11 of the remaining teams are from the Pac-10 and Big East, or more than 1/3 of the field. The only Big Ea...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-20-2009
Friday’s action begins with Syracuse taking on Stephen F. Austin. The Cuse expended a lot of energy in the Big East Conference Tournament, both physically and emotionally, and you wonder the imp...