March Madness Point Spread - March 28, 2008
We split last night, but hit our 4 unit play, for a +0.6 unit night. Tonight we have four picks in three games including a double 5-unit game!
Wunderdog Bracket Update: As of last night's Sweet 16 games, Wunderdog Sports Picks March Madness bracket has the potential to have 6 of the Elite 8 teams in Kansas, North Carolina, Louisville, Memphis, Texas and UCLA. Of those six teams, our predicted Final Four, Championship game and Champion are all on track.
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Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:
Game: Davidson vs. Wisconsin (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Davidson +4.5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)
Pick: 5 units on Game Total UNDER 126.5 -110 (risk 5 to win 4.6)
This game, as is the case in most Badger games, has ugly written all over it. Wisconsin certainly doesn't win with offense as they average just 67.6 ppg. Their calling card is defense. They allow just 53.9 ppg, rank 3rd in the country in FG percentage defense at 38%, allowing just 30.5% from beyond the arc. The one thing that Wisconsin hasn't seen is a player that puts up and makes three pointers on the level of Stephon Curry. The Big 10 has not a single player with 100 made threes, and no team on the Badger schedule has either. Drew Neitzel is about as close as you can find, and he hit 4-for-10 from deep, scoring 26 in a 2-point game in the Big-10 Tourney. This season the Badgers faced a total of five players in the top 100 in terms of made three pointers on the season. Those players performed good, shooting 36.1% in nine games. So don't buy it when the stuffed suits tell you that Curry will be shut down here. Davidson won't be intimidated, not by a long shot. They have already played two #1 seeds, and two #2 seeds on the road (North Carolina, Duke, UCLA, Georgetown). They played superb in those games, losing by an average of just 4.5 points per game, and all of those teams are better than Wisconsin. For the most part the Wildcats played on the others' home-court. When they got Georgetown on a neutral floor, they won. Davidson can play at any speed. They have gone 6-1 ATS in their lined games with a total in the 130s or less, and have played five of the last six UNDER the total. Wisconsin has not played a game with over 128 points scored since mid-February, and has played eight of the last nine UNDER. They have played 24-13 to the UNDER in their last nine post-season appearances. Finally, this decade in 3rd round NCAA Tournament games, all nine games posted with a total of UNDER 130 have gone UNDER. Davidson has shown they belong, from their early season games vs top teams and their tournament so far. Curry has averaged 30 ppg vs the five top teams on their schedule (UCLA, NC, Georgetown, Gonzaga, and Duke). We like the Wildcats with upset potential getting points and the UNDER.
Game: Stanford vs. Texas (7:25 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Texas -2 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
This is technically a road game for both teams but it's being played in Houston. The Longhorns are 6-0 in NCAA Tournament games played in Texas the past five years. Even without that edge, we liked them in this matchup. The home-court helped North Carolina break out of an early tough-going yesterday and we think it can make the difference in this game too. We like the fact that Texas had a tough go of it vs. Miami. They held off a fierce Miami comeback from a 17-point defecit which shows heart and also prepares you well for future close games and tough situations. Texas has the decided offensive advantage, averaging 75.5 per game to Stanford's 71.2 (69.8 on the road) and the Longhorns are playing defense better than Stanford right now. Texas shows up for big games. They are 13-5 ATS vs. elite teams (those outscoring their opponents by 8+ ppg) in late-season play the past two seasons. Over that same span, they are 28-17 ATS off a win and 22-12 ATS off two straight wins. The Cardinal have the twin towers but Texas has the superstar guards. You may be tired of hearing it but it's true - the deeper you get in this tournament, the more important great guard play becomes. We like the "home" team in this one.
Game: Villanova vs. Kansas (9:40 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Kansas -12 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Villonova has gotten a lot of people to jump on their bandwagon with their recent play. They came back from dead, and in the end blew out a frustrated inexperienced Clemson team. The Tigers had not been in the tourney for over 10 years, and did it ever show. Such is not the case with Kansas. Villanova deserved to be higher than a 12 seed - we have no issue with that. So, we don't underestimate them. The numbers don't lie though, as this team shoots just 43%, which is about as bad as it gets on this level. On the road, they are bad, shooting just 42% and posting a 9-9 record. They also don't defend the three very well, ranking 250+ there. They are the only team in the entire tournament from a multiple bid conference that lost eight games by double digits! When they play good teams, and lose they lose big! Many feel they are in peak form now, at the right time, and that their poor play is all part of the past. What happened then in the Big East Tournament when they faced Georgetown? They lost by 19 because they couldn't shoot or defend the long ball. They also lost to Louisville late in the season, dropping the game by 14. In their last eight games against tournament teams, Kansas is winning by 16.3 ppg. Many of those were vs. teams better than Nova. The Jayhawks shoot 51%, knocking down 40% of their three-pointers. They also defend at 38%. There will be mismatches all over the floor, and they favor Kansas. We like them to win and cover.
Results: 3-1
NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-27-2008
The Tar Heels haven't just won this year, they have won big. They have an amazing 26 double-digit wins on the season and are absolutely clicking on offense right now. Washington State is capable o...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-25-2008
UMass is just 10-7 away from home, allowing 78.8 ppg. At home, the Cuse is 16-5, producing more points per game and allowing fewer than the Minutemen. UMass is coming off a 68-63 win over Akron. The p...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-24-2008
Ohio got here behind a great team effort as all five starters reached double figures in their 80-74 win over Brown. Bradley was deadly from the line in their win over Cincinnati. Without their 26-for-...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-23-2008
Miami has been a real success story this year, bouncing back from a 12-win season the year before to make it this far. In this game the student (Frank Haith) faces the teacher (Rick Barnes). Hait...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-22-2008
Lots of people fell off the Duke bandwagon after the emotional 1 point squeaker win vs. Belmont. There were questions about this Blue Devils team coming in, and that near miss confirmed in many p...
