Ncaa Basketball Final Four - March 27, 2009

The Sweet 16 is here and we are in need of some winners. To that end I've been busting my ass! Hopefully after reading below, you'll agree.

The tourney hasn't gone well so far. During the first two rounds, plays were made based on situations that hit at very high rates over the past four years. But this year they have completely reversed. Situations that were hitting 80%+ over about 150 plays turned around and hit about 30% - 40%. So, time to try something new...

I've spent the past few days analyzing and those situations to try to prune. I've also put forth a lot of efffort looking at something that didn't get a lot of my attention prior - moneylines. I've found something that I really like and it will be the basis of a handful of plays for the Sweet 16. For Thursday and Friday, I have eight plays. This includes three traditional plays and five parlays. Read on for details...

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Purdue vs. Connecticut (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Connecticut -6.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 134 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The Huskies seem to be peaking at just the right time. A.J. Price is playing like an All-American. He averaged 14.6 ppg on the season, but has taken that up to 24.5 ppg over his last six games. Perhaps an even bigger lift for the Huskies has been the emergence of Stanley Robinson who missed the first part of the season, and appeared lost upon his return. Robinson over his last eight games is averaging 14 ppg and 9 rpg. That gives the Huskies a lot of options, as they already have Adrien and Thabeet inside as the only duo in the country each averaging a double-double. And with Robinson's play over the last month, they are close to having three! The Huskies have won their first two tournament games by an average of 41 ppg and are playing as good as anyone in the tournament. Purdue has gotten here in much less spectacular form, as they escaped Northern Iowa by 5 and Washington by just 2. Purdue plays tough defense, but they haven't had to defend a team like the Huskies all season, and the Huskies are right there with them on defense. Purdue doesn't have the answers UConn has offensively, or off the glass, which is where the difference lies in this game. The Boilermakers reached 80 points just once in their last 27 games, and that was against a really struggling Indiana team. The Huskies look like a team that is serious about cutting down the nets for the 3rd time in 10 years, and have too many answers for Purdue in this one. I like UConn to win this one big. This game also features two teams that are ranked very high in FG percentage defense with UConn at #3 and Purdue at #11. I'm also on the UNDER here.

Missouri likes to get out and run, but I'm not so sure how much success they will have vs. Memphis in doing so, as the Tigers have not allowed any team over 70 points in their last 23 games. The Tigers have also played 13 of their last 16 games vs. teams with a .600 or better winning percentage to the UNDER. The better the team, the more intense the defense. Missouri has managed to score well this season, but when you look at their games vs. teams that bring something to the table defensively, they have been held down. They got just 59 vs. Illinois and 62 and 65 in their two games vs. Kansas. And they scored in the 60s vs. Texas as well. This one will be played at a much slower pace than anticipated, but even still, a lot more Missouri shots will be challenged than they are used to. This one goes UNDER the total.

As I mentioned in the intro, over the past few days I've done some very in-depth research on moneyline plays in the tournament. What I have found represents tremendous betting value in my opinion and I'll share the details with you in-depth.

While the NCAA Tournament is known for its upsets, the reality is that there really aren't a lot of big upsets. And, the ones that do occur tend to come in the first round. In the first round, a team that really didn't deserve to be ranked so highly might get caught. Or, nerves can get a hold of a team and they can lose a game they should not. But after the first round, these things are much more rare.

Now by "big" upset I'm not talking about minor suprises. Sure, a 10 seed will upset a 7 seed now and then, but that isn't necessarily a big upset. Sometimes 10 seeds are actually favored over 7 seeds (as was the case this year with USC a 2-point favorite over BC). Even some larger "upsets" based on seeding aren't really that surprising because the oddsmakers tell us the teams aren't that different. Cleveland State beating Wake? Dayton beating West Virginia? Yes, now those are upsets! But they were really the only ones of note thus far in 2009. Even Western Kentucky's (12 seed) win over Illinois (5 seed) wasn't that crazy as Illinois was only favored by just 5 points. Arizona also won as a 12 seed but they were only a 1.5 point underdog. Neither of those are really upsets of note.

The point here is that there really aren't that many big upsets in the tourney, especially after you get out of the initial round. This year is a case-in-point as there were no big upsets in the second round. Some games were very close down to the wire, but in the end, the medium and big favorites won their games, advancing to this round. It got me thinking.... How often are there big upsets in after round one? Turns out not often. In fact, it's downright close to never!

I analyzed games after round one and I found that in certain situations, upsets are extremely rare. Based on certain criteria, I identified 48 games over the past four years in which one team was clearly supposed to win. In those 48 games,  47 out of 48 times the team that was supposed to win actually won! Of teams that met the criteria I set, the only upset in the past four years was Indiana upsetting Duke (who was favored by 9 points) in 2002. The other 47 times, the team that was supposed to win, won the game outright. Many of those teams lost versus the spread, but the straight-up loss was almost non-existent. In round two of this year, this system went a perfect 6-0. So this system I have developed is now up to 53-1 over 4.5 years.

For the Sweet 16, there are four games/teams that qualify for my system: Pittsburgh, Louisville, Connecticut and North Carolina. While a team does not have to be #1 seeds to qualify for the system, these four happen to be the #1 seeds. So, that led me to look at one more thing - how have #1 seeds done in the Sweet 16? Well, over the past ten years, the ones that qualify for this system are 22-1 straight up!

So, I really like these four teams to win their games outright. Now, maybe you are thinking "That's not impressive - of course they are expected to win." This is true, these are all favorites and all #1 seeds. Fair enough. The question is, can we come up with a betting strategy to profit off this?

One option is to take each of these four teams on the moneyline. UConn is -300, Pitt is -310, Louisville is -500 and N. Carolina is -420. Is there value there? Yes there is. Why? Here's the math: 53-1 comes out to 98.1%. The 22-1 mentioned above comes to 95.6%. So if we believe history will repeat itself, these four teams have a 95-98% chance of winning their games outright. Let's take the more conservative one as our estimate for the chance of each of these four teams winning. If the expectation is 95.6%, then the equivalent "fair" moneyline on each team is around -2400. So, based on the history above, you should be laying -2400 for each of them to win (risking $2400 to win $100). Instead, you are laying -300 to -500 to win 100. So there is a lot of value there in my opinion. That being said, I know a lot of people don't like laying 300 - 500 to win 100. So, I've come up with some alternate strategies using parlays that will allow us to risk less and still profit from this finding.

The answer is parlays.

We can put these four teams together in various parlay combinations to reduce the odds we need to lay. While not a big fan of parlays for every day betting, there are times when I feel they are ok and this is one of them. I normally don't like parlays because I think the odds are bad. In this case, they are great! I like these parlays enough that I am making them official recommended plays.

Let's look at the numbers. First let's look at a four-team parlay, playing all of these #1 seeds to win straight up. At the odds mentioned above (-300, -310, -500, -420), a 4-team parlay will pay out at +160. That means for every $100 we bet, we'd win $160 if all four teams win. Is that a good deal? You bet! The reality is that if we believe each team independently has a 95.6% chance of winning their game, the "fair" odds on this parlay are -565. Yes - you read that right. We should acutally be laying $565 to win $100. Instead we are laying $100 to win $160. It doesn't get any better than that!

But what if we are wrong? What if the 95.6% is too high? What if these teams actually have a lower chance of winning their games? Well, maybe the 95.6% is too high. Despite a lot of compelling data (22-1 for #1 seeds in the Sweet 16 over the past 10 years, and 53-1 for this system overall), let's assume 95.6% is too high. Let's use a more conservative number, like 90%. Let's assume each of these four teams only has a 90% chance of winning their game. Is that reasonable? Based on that assumption, the chance of winning all four games is about 66%. The "fair" odds for a 66% bet is -195. So if we believe each team only has a 90% chance of winning their game, the sportsbooks should be charging us $195 to win $100 on this bet. Instead we are risking $100 to win $160! Again - not often we stumble upon value like that.

How far off could we be on our assumptions here before we get to the point where this parlay is actually a bad bet? In order for this bet to be a bad value at the +160 odds we are getting, we'd have to believe that each of these four teams has less than an 80% chance of winning their respective games. Given the figures I have looked at (22-1 and 53-1), I personally find that very hard to believe.

So, I am recommending a 4-team parlay on Pittsburgh + Connecticut + Louisville + North Carolina - all on the moneyline to win straight up. It should pay around +160.

These numbers (53-1 and 22-1) are impressive. Does this mean this bet cannot lose? Absolutely not! Just like any bet, there is a risk it will lose, so play it accordingly. If three of these teams win and one loses, this parlay loses. But, this is a risk we take with any bet. Usually on flat odds bets (-110 odds) we have about a 40-50% chance of losing. On this parlay bet, I believe the chance of losing to be closer to 20-30% so it's great in comparison. Layer on top of that the fact that if we win, we get paid much better than even money, and it becomes a great opportunity. Not a lock - but an opportunity.

Below I have also listed four more parlays that are official plays for the Sweet 16. They consist of all possible three-team parlay combinations using these four teams. As you can see, they pay around even money when in fact they should be paying much much less - so the overlay value on them is also extremely large (I think the true odds on them should be around -150 to -200).

Good luck in the Sweet 16.

Results: 7-1

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Here we show our college basketball Game-of-Day-Preview.
• Check out our updated college basketball blog.
• View our 2008 season NCAA basketball betting preview here.
• Hop over to our 2008 college basketball prior picks season results here.
• View our NCAA basketball prior predictions here.
• Check out NCAA basketball sportsbook reviews here.
• View college basketball spreads here.
• Don't forget to visit our march madness brackets.
• Here we show our NCAA basketball ATS records.
• Don't forget to read our ncaa march madness pick here.
• Check out our updated sports handicapping NCAA basketball picks.
• Take a look at our betting NCAA basketball here.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-24-2009
Many would believe this Gators team would be disappointed in not being in the NCAA Tournament, and surely they are, but Coach Donovan doesn't allow them to be a no-show. That was evident by last y...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-22-2009
Arizona State, the sixth seed, is just a two-point underdog here to the number three seed. Why so little? Because they have a great shot at winning this. In my bracket, I had ASU making it to the Swee...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-21-2009
We are down to the round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament, and one can't help but notice that 11 of the remaining teams are from the Pac-10 and Big East, or more than 1/3 of the field. The only Big Ea...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-20-2009
Friday’s action begins with Syracuse taking on Stephen F. Austin. The Cuse expended a lot of energy in the Big East Conference Tournament, both physically and emotionally, and you wonder the imp...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-19-2009
The Memphis Tigers came within a few points of winning a national championship last year, dropping a heartbreaker in overtime at the hands of the Kansas Jayhawks. That Tigers team saw Joey Dorsey, Chr...