College Basketball
Premium Edition
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March 27, 2007
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darrell,
Two selections tonight from the NIT. For insight into the madness we call the Final Four, please see the article below.
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THE FACES OF THE FINAL FOUR The tournament, in what seems like warp-speed fashion, has now played itself down to the best of the best. The Final Four. It will be the lowest total combined four seeds (1, 1, 2, and 2 for a total of 6) since 1993 when the total of the seeds was five. It will also mark the second year in a row without an ACC team, something that hasn't happened for over 20 years - the 1984-85 tournaments. Florida will have the rare opportunity to capture back-to-backTourney Titles. The last to do it was Duke after the 1991-92 seasons. TheBig 12 will not get an opportunity to end their drought as they have not won the tournament since 1988 when they had both teams in the final with Kansas besting Oklahoma. Overall, you'd have to say the selection committee did a great job seeding the teams this year as the upsets were minimal and the higher seeds for the most part prevailed. So who will be wearing the crown when the last horn sounds next Monday Night? Ohio State was high on a lot of pre-season lists to be here. And of course Florida with everyone back, UCLA with most everyone back, and Georgetown with Green and Hibbert. Ohio State has been interesting. They have just three losses the entire year with two of those coming at the hands of No. 1 seeds and the other to a No. 2 seed. Yet they barely survived two games earlier in the tournament to stay alive. Georgetown looked down-and-out versus North Carolina, but rallied to push the game to OT. UCLA has lost games during the season that defies them being here. Losses to California, Stanford and Washington made many believe they would not get to the Final Four, but they proved the naysayers wrong. Florida did not finish well either, but seemed to flip a switch to run the table in the SEC tourney. They kept that momentum going, surviving without a major challenge thus far. Their closest game has been seven points, the largest of all survivors. Could the No. 2 seeds pull off twin upsets on Saturday? Certainly they could, but we have seen just one No. 2 vs. No. 2 final in 22 years. Whatever happens it will be hard to argue that these aren't the four best teams in the country, which isn't always the case when the tourney reaches the Final Four. Four teams left, three more big games, two survive the weekend, one champion, and a lot of shattered dreams. Welcome to the Madness! |
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We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).
Game: Mississippi State vs. West Virginia (7:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 2 units on Mississippi State -1.5
The NIT has reached Madison Square Garden, and both Mississippi State and West Virginia have played all of their games in this tournament at home. W. Virginia has been almost unbeatable at home, but the road tells a different story. They managed wins against Seton Hall and Rutgers during the Big East regular season - two of the lower teams in the Big East this year. They were beaten rather soundly in their other games, losing five games by double-digit margins. Mississippi St. started poorly on the road, but came of age late, to beat Kentucky on a neutral court. They also won at LSU and Auburn, while falling by one point to Alabama. We will ride the team that has shown more ability to adapt to life away from home, and go with Mississippi State.
Game: Clemson vs. Air Force (9:20 PM Eastern) Pick: 2 units on Clemson +1
Both of these teams looked like NCAA tournament locks midway through the season, and both had disappointing finishes. Air Force has dominated teams at home with this group winning 58 of 60 games. The problem, especially lately, is playing away from the comfort of their home court. Over their last games away from home we have seen them shoot just 39.7% and 31.3% from three-point range, while giving up 47.8% and 32.3% from beyond the arc. They also have had a 10 rebound per game deficit to overcome. This has all resulted in a 1-6 mark down the stretch away from home. Clemson started 17-0, and completely folded. A closer look, however, shows they lost to some very potent teams. Clemson suffered 10 losses on the season, and eight of those losses were to teams in the NCAA tournament, and seven of those seeded within the top 25 teams in the country. Air Force has had a good run, but without some home-cooking they would be ordinary. The Falcon’s stats at home vs. on the road are a long way apart. Clemson in this one.
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