Ncaa March Madness - March 24, 2008
We went 2-0 yesterday with a push thrown in. We are up 2.8 units for the tournament and remain hot (5-2-1) on our totals picks. Today we have five selections in NIT and CBI action.
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Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:
Game: Ohio at Bradley (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Ohio +225 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 6.8)
Ohio got here behind a great team effort as all five starters reached double figures in their 80-74 win over Brown. Bradley was deadly from the line in their win over Cincinnati. Without their 26-for-31 performance from the charity stripe, they would have lost, thanks to 43.2% shooting from the field. It was their fourth straight game hitting under 45%. The Braves have allowed their last five opponents an average of 79 ppg. So, they don't appear to be playing good basketball to us heading into this game. Ohio is 7-2 straight-up this season in non-conference games. Under head coach Tim Oshea, the Bobcats are 30-18 SU in non-conference games and 25-9 in games with a total in the 140s. They also have a winning record under Oshea vs. winning opponents. We think Ohio has a decent shot at the win here and as such, we'll back them for the nice moneyline payout.
Game: U A B at Virginia Tech (9:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Virginia Tech -8 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 135 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Hokies are a completely different team at home where they finished superb at 13-2. Their inability to win off their home-court, finishing just 5-10, cost them an NCAA bid. The Hokies are on a mission to prove their NCAA snub was unjustified. They threw an early knockout punch to Morgan State in their NIT opener, winning by 32. It was their eighth straight cover with the last three at home by double digits. Virginia Tech averages just 70 points per game on the season, but their last seven at home have averaged 80.7 ppg. UAB did not have a very difficult schedule this season, and played only one NCAA Tournament team on the road in Memphis, and got destroyed. They have a tendency to up-tempo games, as 12 of their last 15 have produced OVERs, and that will make things rough against the Hokies who are clicking at over 80 per game at home. We like the Hokies with a comfortable double-digit win in a high-scoring game that goes OVER.
Game: Valparaiso at Houston (9:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Valparaiso +9 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Houston has put together a very good season in terms of wins and losses, but there is not a whole lot of quality associated with the win column. They finished with nine losses, but five occured in their last ten games. Their stretch-run was bad as they covered just two of their last seven. They really like to push the ball, and often settle for bad shots. This has led to a team that is amongst the NCAA's worst, shooting just 41.1% on the season. Valpo went through a rough stretch winning just four of 14 games, but is playing their best basketball of the season right now. They have won seven of their last eight. They just won at Washington, who has beaten UCLA, Arizona and Oregon at home, as well as dropping a 4 point decision to Wash State, and a 1 point loss to Pitt. It speaks volumes for how this team is really coming together now. This is simply too many points to give to a team that has played on the road at Butler, Wisconsin, Washington and Vanderbilt, and has not lost at any of those sites by more than 10. The Crusaders could surprise and get the out-right win, but at the very least they should hang tough.
Game: Utah at Tulsa (9:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Tulsa -2.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Utah posted an impressive win over UTEP thanks to defense. Their offense actually struggled as they hit just 23 of 58 shots. Tulsa was equally impressive on defense in their game over Miami Ohio, but their offense also performed better, connecting on 47% from the field. Utah is just 7-10 on the road this season while Tulsa is 14-2 at home, holding foes here to 55.3 ppg on 36.6% shooting! It doesn't get any better than that. Weak opponents you say? Consider that the Golden Hurricanes held their foes to a full 6 ppg less than their average overall and much better than that in home games. Utah is just 3-11 ATS the past three seasons on the road in games with a total set under 130. They are also just 1-8 ATS over that span off an upset win. Tulsa is 14-5 ATS this season off a home win and 10-3 ATS after a double-digit win. They are also 9-2 ATS as a home favorite. We like the home team in this one.
Results: 2-3
NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-23-2008
Miami has been a real success story this year, bouncing back from a 12-win season the year before to make it this far. In this game the student (Frank Haith) faces the teacher (Rick Barnes). Hait...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-22-2008
Lots of people fell off the Duke bandwagon after the emotional 1 point squeaker win vs. Belmont. There were questions about this Blue Devils team coming in, and that near miss confirmed in many p...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-21-2008
Tennessee's defense was a no-show in the SEC tournament and they have heard about it ever since. You can bet they are going to be looking to make a statement to the fans, press and to themselves h...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-20-2008
The problem for the Vikings here is that their output against the few top-caliber teams they have played this year has not been good. But in those games they did manage to slow the pace. You can bet P...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-19-2008
The Hokies may be feeling snubbed by NCAA committee and find themselves in the NIT (Not In Tournament). Morgan State had a 15-1 run stopped in their conference final, as an even hotter Coppin State te...
