College Basketball
Premium Edition
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March 24, 2007
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darrell,
With USC up big over North Carolina, and getting 8.5 points, a 2-1 night looked in the bag yesterday until N.C. stormed back to get a 10-point victory. Argh! Two picks today...
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We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).
Game: Memphis at Ohio State (4:40 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 134.5 -110
This is a high-scoring round. Over the last nine years, the average total points per game for Elite 8 games has been 148.2. Here we get tremendous value on a 134.5 total. Memphis pours in 78.9 points per game. This is they type of team that Ohio State struggles against. The Buckeyes played five teams that scored 76+ per game this year and it was against these teams that they had problems. Granted, Memphis' stats came against C-USA opponents so there is some question there. But they handled a very good Texas A&M team last game, putting up 65 points. They have won 25 straight games so there is definitely something there. Ohio State we know can score but they have shown in this tourney that they can also be scored against. Take the OVER here.
Game: U C L A at Kansas (7:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 129.5 -110
Yes, Kansas struggled against S. Illinois, nearly losing a game they were supposed to win easily. Now we have overraction on the public's part. It has the total here. Let's take a look at UCLA's season a bit more closely. The Bruins played seven high-scoring teams this season (averaged 76+ ppg). In all seven of those games, the total was posted at 139.5 or higher (nearly 10 points higher than this total). Six of those seven games went OVER the total. The only one that did not was the , over 6 out of 7 - only didn't was their season finale vs. Washington - a game in which the teams shot for a combined 35% from the field. They Jayhawks are 8-1 OVER in their last nine games this season vs. great teams (outscoring opponents by 8+ per game). This total is set too low and we'll take the OVER.
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