Free Basketball Picks - March 23, 2008
We hit our 5-unit play but missed on the others. It seems the totals are what are clicking for us in this tournament (we are now 5-2 on totals) so we come back with another 5-unit total pick today along with a couple other selections...
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Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:
Game: Miami vs. Texas (2:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Texas -310 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 1.3)
Miami has been a real success story this year, bouncing back from a 12-win season the year before to make it this far. In this game the student (Frank Haith) faces the teacher (Rick Barnes). Haith was an assistant under Barnes at Texas for three seasons before heading to Miami in 2004. This is where the feel-good story for Miami ends. A win here gives Texas their fifth visit to the Sweet 16 in the past seven years. Miami defeated St. Mary's 78-64 in the first round, but they needed a 25-5 run in the second half to get it. This is a solid team, but they are now going to face a team that is much, much better. Texas manhandled Austin Peay, winning by 20 points. Four players finished with double-figures, led by AJ Abrams and his 26. DJ Augustin got just six points but dished out eight assists, getting him over the 200 mark on the season. Miami's win was just their ninth in 17 road games this season while Texas has notched 12 in as many games. The Longhorns have won 14 of their last 18 vs. winning teams this season including 8-2 vs. teams at .600 or better. Miami's strength is defense but Texas is 14-5 this season vs. teams that hold opponents to 42% or less from the field. Texas is 6-1 this season playing with less than two days rest while Miami is 1-7 the past two seasons in this situation. The line in this game gives us pause as Miami might be able to cover it. But, we see very little chance of Texas not advancing here and as such we'll take the Longhorns on the moneyline.
Game: San Diego vs. W. Kentucky (2:40 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on W. Kentucky -5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Highlanders are now 18-1 in their last 19 games and have covered six straight. This is a very good shooting team that is red-hot right now. They had five players hit multiple threes against Drake, so they can strike from anywhere on the floor. San Diego eeked out a nice win against a UConn. But, the Huskies looked listless and seemed to be playing without any energy. The history in these games shows that the #13 seeds are beaten 80% of the time by the #12 seeds, and a #13 seed playing a #12 has never won if they were not in the tourney the prior year. Western Kentucky is now 12-3 ATS this season vs. winning teams including 7-1 in their last eight. No upset here as we see Western Kentucky moving on.
Game: Oklahoma vs. Louisville (5:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 5 units on Game Total UNDER 126 -110 (risk 5 to win 4.6)
Louisville has held eleven Big East teams in the 50s and allows just 38.6% FG shooting and just 30.7% from beyond the arc. They aren't the best shooting team either hovering around 45%, and they convert only 65% from the line. The Cardinals have played UNDER in six of eight games with a posted total in the 120s. Oklahoma is another team that plays sticky defense and like A&M yesterday, it becomes their calling card when they are the dog as it is how they stay in games. Oklahoma is 6-0 to the UNDER as a dog, holding opponents to 40.9% shooting and just 32% from long-range. Combined these two teams have played 64% of their games with a posted total in the 120s UNDER. Oklahoma has gone 9-2-1 UNDER on a neutral court and Louisville is 14-5 UNDER after a straight up win. Another defensive struggle is in order here and the UNDER is our play here.
NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-22-2008
Lots of people fell off the Duke bandwagon after the emotional 1 point squeaker win vs. Belmont. There were questions about this Blue Devils team coming in, and that near miss confirmed in many p...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-21-2008
Tennessee's defense was a no-show in the SEC tournament and they have heard about it ever since. You can bet they are going to be looking to make a statement to the fans, press and to themselves h...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-20-2008
The problem for the Vikings here is that their output against the few top-caliber teams they have played this year has not been good. But in those games they did manage to slow the pace. You can bet P...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-19-2008
The Hokies may be feeling snubbed by NCAA committee and find themselves in the NIT (Not In Tournament). Morgan State had a 15-1 run stopped in their conference final, as an even hotter Coppin State te...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-18-2008
This game kicks off the College Basketball Invitational - a new single elimination tournament to be held on the home courts of the higher seeds. This is Rider's first tournament game since th...
