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Game: Butler at Florida (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 127.5 -110

This game sets up much like the Southern Illinois vs. Kansas game did last night. Florida likes to get out and run but Butler just will not get into a 94-foot game with Florida or anyone else for that matter. Their style is consistent. They have not had a game all season with more than 105 shots taken between the two teams. That means very limited possessions and a very low scoring game. This Butler team played against Tennessee and held them to 44 points and Indiana to 57, so the tempo becomes very disruptive, and frustrating to the team wanting to run, as we witnessed with Kansas last night. We will play this one to go UNDER the total.

There is something very interesting but also very revealing about this Vanderbilt team. This team plays the opposite way of last year's Notre Dame team. Notre Dame was snake bitten last year losing 8-10 games by just a few points each, and ended up mediocre. But by turning half of those around they would have been playing in late March like Vanderbilt is this year. Vanderbilt is 22-11, and has won nine games either in OT or by five points or less. If you turn five of those around they are 17-16, very similar, but on the other side of the fate of ND last year. They have also lost more games by double digits this season, than almost all the teams still standing! Vanderbilt has lost seven games by double digits, and two others by eight points each. What this tells us is that this team simply has zero margin for error. Things have to go well for them, or they become non-competitive. The biggest factor is shooting the three-point shot and Georgetown is the best defender they will have seen all season around the perimeter. The top defensive team Vanderbilt has seen this year was No. 26 Miss State and they lost by 13. They have three double-digit losses to teams that are inside the top 50, and Georgetown sits above them all. Georgetown beat Vanderbilt, at Vandy very early in the season by 16 points. That does not mean much here, as both of these teams are improved. Vandy is the 184th team in the nation in FG% defense, so Georgetown, like last time will be able to score. We see this much the same as their first go round. Georgetown by double digits.

This game is expected to score in the high 70s, to the low 80s for the winner, and that has been a good place this season for USC. When USC has scored 70+ points this season they have been 16-3 ATS, and when they give up 70+ this year they are 9-2 ATS. Carolina has scored 70+ points in all but one game, and are at their best when the game becomes frenetic, and they score 90+. Carolina has been 7-1 ATS when they reach 90+, but since the begining of the year, they have only managed that three times against Miami, Arizona and Wake Forest - no team of USC’s caliber. They have been just 3-6 ATS in the 80-point range over their last nine, and 3-3 ATS in the 70s. USC has been a good road team all season winning at Oregon, UCLA, and Washington State and covering at Kansas, so they have played very well away from home. North Carolina is just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games out of their own building.