March Madness Bracket Predictions - March 22, 2009

We got on the winning track yesterday hitting two of three and finishing with +2.5 units. Today we are playing on the second day of the Round of 32 with five premium CBB plays.

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Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Arizona State at Syracuse (12:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Arizona State +2.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Arizona State, the sixth seed, is just a two-point underdog here to the number three seed. Why so little? Because they have a great shot at winning this. In my bracket, I had ASU making it to the Sweet 16 and my analysis of this matchup confirms my initial feeling. Syracuse is a sexy pick for many this year, thanks to their run in the Big East tournament. And, while the Pac 10 doesn't get a lot of respect, and the Big East does this year, ASU played a tough enough schedule to prepare for this game. They've won 25 games including victories over BYU, USC, Cal, UCLA twice, and Arizona three times. Their defense is leaps and bounds better than the Cuse defense. Arizona State allows just 60.8 points per game on the road while Cuse allows 76 per game. The Orange overpowered an under-matched Stephen F. Austin club but only scored 59 points in that affair. But SFA simply didn't come to play. They were 2-for-21 from beyond the arc. The Orange face a much stiffer test here and I like ASU to get the win.

Marquette did not look great against Utah State, barely eeking out a one point win. But that game toughened them up while Missouri might as well have taken the day off vs. Cornell. The Golden Eagles get Dominic James back for this game and he should provide an emotional lift if nothing else. Versus Utah State, a normally high-powered offense uncharacteristically struggled, shooting just 36.2% from the field - nearly a full 10 percentage points below their average. The fact that they won that game anyway says a lot. Under Mike Anderson, the Tigers are just 2-9 ATS on the road coming off back-to-back double digit wins. Anderson-coached teams are also 0-7 ATS after four straight ATS wins. I like Marquette to put up a fight and keep this close, if not win. I also like the UNDER. As the intensity has picked up with conference tournament and NCAA tournament play, the scores in games with these teams has dropped. While Marquette games have averaged 147.3 all season, they've averaged just 143 over their last five games. Missouri games averaged the same 147.3 during the regular season but have dropped to 143.8 over their last five. There's a clear trend and this total looks too high. On top of that, the Tigers are 12-5 UNDER this season when facing good shooting teams (45%+ FG). Golden Eagles and the UNDER here.

USC is peaking at the right time. Expected to miss this tourney late in the season, they went on to win the Pac-10 title to punch their ticket. And they destroyed the higher-seeded Boston College Eagles in round one, winnning 72-55. They have now won six straight games SU and ATS, winning by an average margin of 10.7 points per game. That includes wins over Cal, UCLA, Arizona State and BC. They have the confidence that is going to be required to knock off a number two seed. Michigan State underperformed vs. Robert Morris. They won by just 10 points against a team they were supposed to beat by 15 or more. They should have crushed them, given their massive size advantage. Under Tim Floyd, the Trojans are 55-35 ATS vs. winning opponents and 35-19 ATS as an underdog. Right now, given how these teams are playing, they are about even, so I'll take the points on the team with momentum and confidence. 

Wisconsin showed me a lot in their first-round game vs. Florida State. They couldn't hit the broad side of a barn in the first half of that game and trailed by 12 points at half. They didn't give up however and came back to win a confidence-booster in OT. The Badgers shot just 7-for-25 in the first half of that game, yet still won the game! That shows what this defense can do. They average just 59 points allowed per game in the regular season. And they've gotten better as the season has progressed. Over their past 11 games, not a single opponent has scored more than 61 points on them, and that includes the OT game. Their average ppg allowed over that run is a ridiculous 54.1! The Xavier defense is also good, but consider that over the same stretch dating back to the beginning of February, the Musketeers have given up 80, 74, 72, 71, 65 and 80 to opponents. Xavier's average looks good but they are much more inconsistent. Under Bo Ryan, the Badgers are 9-1 ATS on the road coming off an upset win. I look for Wisconsin to carry the momentum and confidence built from last game into this one.

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Check out our updated NCAA basketball record.
• Check out our updated sports betting college basketball.
• Check out NCAA basketball lines and odds here.
• Read our march madness brackets here.
• Read our NCAA basketball ATS standings here.
• View our ncaa march madness picks here.
• Don't forget to read our NCAA basketball picks here.
• Check out NCAA basketball sports handicapping philosophy here.
• Read our college basketball Game-of-Day-Preview here.
• View our updated blog college basketball.
• Check out our updated 2008 season NCAA basketball handicapping preview.
• Read our 2008 college basketball prior picks season results here.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-21-2009
We are down to the round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament, and one can't help but notice that 11 of the remaining teams are from the Pac-10 and Big East, or more than 1/3 of the field. The only Big Ea...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-20-2009
Friday’s action begins with Syracuse taking on Stephen F. Austin. The Cuse expended a lot of energy in the Big East Conference Tournament, both physically and emotionally, and you wonder the imp...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-19-2009
The Memphis Tigers came within a few points of winning a national championship last year, dropping a heartbreaker in overtime at the hands of the Kansas Jayhawks. That Tigers team saw Joey Dorsey, Chr...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-18-2009
Vermont had a good run in the NCAA Tournament a couple years ago, but certainly this isn't a team on the same level. They are a good team in the American East, but they will be harshly tested here...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-17-2009
This is a opening-round game in the first-ever Collegeinsider.com Tournament. Kent State is looking for their 11th straight 20-win season, but I don't see it happening tonight. Kent State was carr...