Ncaa Final Four - March 22, 2008

We were 7-3 overall in basketball yesterday (3-1 in college and 4-2 in NBA), racking up 12.8 units in gains. Today we have our first 5-unit play of the tourney as well as three others.

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Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: W. Virginia vs. Duke (2:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Duke -4 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Lots of people fell off the Duke bandwagon after the emotional 1 point squeaker win vs. Belmont. There were questions about this Blue Devils team coming in, and that near miss confirmed in many people's minds that they are due for a premature exit. But we think there is value on them today. The Dukies are most vulnerable to a team that is big inside, and that is not what West Virginia offers. Coach K is also good at taking the best opposing player out of the game, forcing others to step-up. Duke is much more athletic, and plays guards out well away from the hoop, which will make life difficult for the Mountaineers today. Under Krzyzewski, Duke is 64-39 ATS coming off a win in which they lost ATS as a favorite. The Big East is not a conference of 3-pt shooting teams, but one that is (Notre Dame) beat this West Virginia team by 13. We expect a similar outcome here today with a Duke bounce-back.

Kansas State is a team under the radar. We had them advancing to this round in our bracekt but few others did. They beat USC handily, by 13 points even with Beasley in foul trouble. They have other talented players that can step up, and in Beasley, they have a player capable of dominating a game. In a setting of lose and go home, that usually matters more in the NCAA Tournament than any other time. They completely dominated USC on the boards, pulling down 18 offensive rebounds. You also have to remember that they beat Kansas, so make no mistake about it - this is a good team that is capable of an outright win here. Wisconsin has dominated their last six opponents on the glass. But when they don't win that battle, they are in close games or lose. They will have a tough time controlling the boards vs. the Wildcats. When Wisconsin lost, or was in a close game this year, they lost the battle of the boards almost every game, and gave up double-digit offensive rebounds. We expect the Wildcats to do exactly that, and win, or stay in it to the end.

This should be a good physical battle and we like the team who played in the tougher, better conference. Pittsburgh won the Big East tourney, besting Louisville, Marquette and Georgetown along the way. They can handle the Spartans who were just 9-8 on the road this season and have averaged only 63 ppg over their last five. Michigan State's defense gets the press but Pitt's isn't bad. The Panthers defense held one of the A10's top scorers (Dionte Christmas), who was averaging over 20 ppg to just 1-for-12 shooting last game. We like the more battle-tested and proven Pitt team to advance here.

This will be the most defensive game of the round of 32. Texas A&M did not get out of the 50s in half their Big-12 contests, and they allow just 39% FG shooting. The Bruins really crank up the defense in the Tournament. They have held six teams in the 40s, and three others to the 50s over the last 2+ years. They play an NBA style game that is suited for the NCAA Tournament, as they go deep into the shot clock, and force the opponent to do the same. This could be a game with minimal possessions, and lots of time ticking. UCLA is 23-11 to the UNDER after a 20+ point win and 12-5 UNDER in non-conference games. A&M is the dog in this show, but their defense is superb. They know they have to bring what they do best, defense, to stay in this one. They are 5-1 to the UNDER in their last six games as an underdog. This total is too high, and we will ride the UNDER.

Results: 1-3

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• View our college basketball sports book reviews here.
• Read our NCAA basketball betting approach here.
• Here we show our ncaa tournament picks.
• Here we show our 2007 NCAA basketball preview.
• Read our NCAA basketball Game-of-Day Analysis here.
• Here we show our 2007 NCAA basketball pick season results.
• Here we show our march madness bracket.
• Hop over to our college basketball ATS standings here.
• View our updated blog college basketball.
• View our free NCAA basketball picks here.
• Don't forget to visit our NCAA basketball previous picks.
• Don't forget to read our NCAA basketball lines and odds here.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-21-2008
Tennessee's defense was a no-show in the SEC tournament and they have heard about it ever since. You can bet they are going to be looking to make a statement to the fans, press and to themselves h...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-20-2008
The problem for the Vikings here is that their output against the few top-caliber teams they have played this year has not been good. But in those games they did manage to slow the pace. You can bet P...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-19-2008
The Hokies may be feeling snubbed by NCAA committee and find themselves in the NIT (Not In Tournament). Morgan State had a 15-1 run stopped in their conference final, as an even hotter Coppin State te...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-18-2008
This game kicks off the College Basketball Invitational - a new single elimination tournament to be held on the home courts of the higher seeds. This is Rider's first tournament game since th...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-17-2008
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