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Game: Southern Illinois vs. Kansas (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Southern Illinois +9

This game looks like a complete mismatch anyway you look at it, except when you look at it the right way. Southern Illinois is a modern day Princeton, with a good coach, better talent and loads of experience. Princeton never matched-up well with anyone in this tournament, but nobody was ready for the style they played. S. Illinois plays a deliberate, cerebral game, much like Princeton, but with better athletes. Kansas has been a scoring machine, but when they have been faced with teams that shorten the game, by going deep into the shot clock and playing tough defense, they revealed an Achillies heel. Kansas has scored under 70 points this season 10 times and over the last 22 games they have been under 70 points as a 6+ favorite. While playing against a team coming off of a SU and ATS win, Kansas is 0-22 ATS! Yes, you read that right. So we know this is the exact type of game that makes Kansas struggle. S. Illinois has allowed 70+ in just one game all year, and the average number of shots taken over their last 19 games was only 88. A typical Kansas game sees 125-140+ shots. When they have played in games where the shots were down and the tempo controlled, here is what happened:Kansas State 100 shots, won by six points, Oklahoma 109 shots won by two, against Texas A&M 111, lost by three, Texas Tech 111, lost by five, Iowa State 124 shots in OT, won by four, DePaul 98 lost by seven points. Kansas has a history of playing a stinker in the NCAA tourney. They are 3-10 ATS as a No. 1 seed, and have lost to Bradley as a -7, Bucknell as a -14, and URI as a -12, so don't count out S. Illinois. Southern Illinois is a very difficult team to adapt to, and this will frustrate Kansas. Here are some first-half scores when they played top teams on the road this season: Arkansas +2, Virginia Tech +5 (in season), Indiana +1, Butler +5, V Tech +8 (NCAA), Oklahoma State +7. We like this Kansas team a lot but not in this spot, the play is on S. Illinois. 

 

This game has the makings of being one of the best games of the tournament. Texas A&M has had a very good run with this class of players, and will be looking to move forward against Memphis. Memphis has the best record of anyone in the tournament, but the knock against Memphis is always is that they played a soft schedule. The mistake often made here is that because they didn't play the same schedule as others, they can't beat the top teams. That assumption puts a lot of people on the wrong side of games. This Memphis team reminds me of what Calipari did when he was at UMASS. No one won as much as he did there with less, and surprised a lot of teams along the way. He has quietly assembled the same type of team at Memphis, only better and with more depth. The fact is that this man can recruit, and he can coach. Memphis has been 22-8 ATS in all tournament games over the last three years. They excel against teams that defend better than 39% FG allowed. Those games and type of teams have seen Memphis go 19-9 ATS. They also play their best basketball against the best teams. Teams that outscore their opponents by 4+, Memphis has racked up a 62-29 ATS mark. The last 13 tournament wins for Memphis (conf., NCAA, and NIT) have all resulted in double-digit wins. Wrong team favored. 

This looked like UCLA'S tournament a few weeks ago, but things have changed. The Bruins have had moments of lackluster offense off and on during the season, but none more revealing than what is the genesis of their recent slide. It begins with Arron Afflalo, who mentally may already be in the NBA. Discounting the Weber St. game, which was a total mismatch, he has been horrible, and in a dreadful slump over the last four games. He has been 12-43 (27.9%) from the field, and 5-24 (20.8%) from the three-point arc, and a pedestrian 67% from the line. He was averaging over 18-points per game (PPG), but over the last four, just 9.8-ppg, two rebounds and only one assist, while playing 37 minutes per game. If the Bruins are to move forward they need him badly. The entire team over the same four-game stretch has been 27.5% from three-point range and 61% from the line, and in 3 of the 4 games shot 36.1% as a team. Those numbers won't get it done against Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh will not make it easy for UCLA to get out of their offensive slump, as they allow just 40% FG shooting and 30% from three-point land. Pittsburgh has not played much in the Pac-10 winning the only two times they have matched up with the Pac-10 over the last several years, while UCLA has struggled vs. the Big East going just 3-7 SU.