Ncaa Basketball Bracket Picks - March 21, 2010

We split our 5-unit picks yesterday (2-2) across all sports. Our 5-unit CBB, NBA and NHL picks are 108-63 (63%) on the season.

We finished 5-6 yesterday on day one of the second round of the NCAA Tournament. Today we have another big day on the college hoops floor as we roll out eight more premium picks including a pair of 5-unit plays as well as a pair of 4-unit picks.

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Gonzaga vs. Syracuse (12:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 149 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)

The oddsmakers have pumped this one up with No. 1 seed Syracuse as the public will look for an explosive scoring outing from one of the nation’s top teams. While the Cuse did run off five straight overs, their season has been mostly falling short of the total as before the five-game over run they were on a 10-1 run to the UNDER, and played short of the total in the opener vs. Vermont. The Bulldogs closed the season on a 6-2 UNDER run, and have continued playing shy of the total with three straight UNDERs in the postseason, running the string to five straight UNDERs vs. teams with a winning percentage of over .600. I'll play this one UNDER the total.

These two teams qualify for my moneyline favorite system in the NCAA tournament. Going into this year, this system has been 57-2 picking straight-up winners in certain situations. These two teams qualify for that situation. The true odds on this parlay winning, in my estimation, is around 90%. At -125 odds however, we are getting value as if the odds of winning were just 56%! So, we have a huge overlay and I'm gonna hammer it with a big 5-unit pick. Here's a game in which we should be laying around -900 odds (let's even get conservative and cut that in half to -450), yet we are only laying slightly more than an even-odds game. Syracuse and Ohio State win their games, and we win this moneyline parlay.

Coach Izzo always has his teams prepared come tourney time, and rarely do they beat themselves. If you’re going to beat this team, you’re going to have to match their intensity. Over the last decade, more often than not teams simply can't do it. Over the last decade, Michigan State is 21-11-1 ATS in the NCAA Tournament. The Terrapins closed the season strong, but most of their best efforts occurred on their home court. This team is still a player away from going deeper into this tournament. Vasquez is an exceptionally talented player but Michigan State has a way of taking out a team’s top player, and I'm not sure if Maryland is at the level where they can survive that here. I'll go with Michigan State in this one.

The Mountaineers have begun to assert themselves on the defensive end of the court. Since the Big East Tournament started they have used defense to propel themselves into the Big East Championship and through the opener in the Big Dance. West Virginia has yet to allow anyone in to touch 60 the four post-season games, allowing just 55 points per game. The Tigers are slowing down with four of their last five games, not including overtime, showing a maximum offensive output of 61 points. The Mountaineers are 16-5 to the UNDER after an ATS win, while the Tigers are playing four of five to the UNDER as a dog. Defense rules in this one, so UNDER gets the call.

The Badgers are out of the Big-10 which plays low and slow. In the case of the Badgers, that translates into the postseason where they are 2-0 to the UNDER this year, and 9-2 to the UNDER over the past three years. The ledger over the Badgers’ last 23 games this season reads 18-5 to the UNDER, so you can see what they are about. Cornell gets a look at a defensive-style team in the Ivy League when facing Princeton twice a year, where they scored a grand total of 98 points in the two games. The Badgers are riding in at 6-1 ATS in their last seven as a favorite of up to 6.5, and have a huge talent advantage here. They are also much more physical - the type of basketball that the Big Red have not seen much of. Cornell is also 12-5-2 to the UNDER in their last 19 as a dog, and just 1-3 ATS in games posted with a total in the 120s or less. I like Wisconsin and the UNDER in this one.

Purdue suffered a big blow when they lost Robbie Hummel for the rest of the season to a knee injury. They have played without him before as he was saddled with a back injury a year ago, and beat a tough Siena team by 8 without him. The Boilers are 5-2 since his injury, so no alarms should be going off - there is plenty of talent to fill the hole. Texas A&M did a great job at home, but looking at neutral site losses to West Virginia and New Mexico, and a slim 1-point win vs. Minnesota, show this team is vulnerable here and a false favorite. The Boilermakers play their best basketball as the underdog where they are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21, and I expect them to get this one as well. Purdue gets the call.

The Duke Blue Devils had an easy time dispatching of Arkansas Pine Bluff in the first round. That hasn't been the case for the Dukies, however over an extended period of post-season play. Duke now owns a dismal 6-19 ATS mark covering their last 25 post-season games. The Golden Bears are one bright spot for a Pac-10 Conference that was down this season, but still does not diminish what they accomplished down the stretch. The Bears are 10-3 in their last 13 games, including a resounding 15 point easy win vs. Louisville. Duke has failed to cover in each of their last six games in the NCAA Tournament as a favorite of 6.5 or less, and I see this one playing to the wire. I'll go with Cal here.

Results: 4-4

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Read our college basketball handicapping here.
• Take a look at our college basketball prior picks here.
• Don't forget to visit our ncaa march madness brackets .
• View our updated NCAA basketball betting approach.
• View NCAA basketball odds and lines here.
• Take a look at our blog NCAA basketball picks here.
• View college basketball sportsbook reviews here.
• Don't forget to visit our college basketball Game-of-Day Analysis.
• Read our march madness pick here.
• View our updated 2009 college basketball prior picks results.
• Don't forget to read our 2009 season NCAA basketball handicapping preview here.
• Here we show our college basketball ATS recrds.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-20-2010
The Tar Heels are not used to the NIT, but with a talented youthful team, it isn't a bad spot for them to get some experieince, and an 8 point win over a talented William & Mary team that beat...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-19-2010
This total is very high looking to me with a Big-10 team and the defensive nature of the conference, so it’s surprising to see this one in the 140s. Minnesota may not fit that form as well as ot...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-18-2010
Sometimes you have to break a team down as to how they do playing very good teams. The Gators have proven one thing, and that is defense is their calling card vs. the top teams. Their last five g...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-17-2010
The Bearcats really had it going and looked like they were on their way to an NCAA Tournament bid, but then the wheels fell off. The Bearcats finished the regular season at 2-7 in their last nine game...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-16-2010
Winthrop is a well-coached team and they slowed games down to win the conference tournament and get to the big dance. The Eagles allowed less than 100 combined points in the last two games to get here...