Ncaa College Basketball Picks - March 21, 2008
We dropped 2.9 units yesterday. After a bad start to the day we swept our last three plays including the top-rated 4-unit pick. We were 2-1 on our totals and come back with three more of those total along with the side we like the best...
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Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:
Game: American vs. Tennessee (12:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 142 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Tennessee's defense was a no-show in the SEC tournament and they have heard about it ever since. You can bet they are going to be looking to make a statement to the fans, press and to themselves here. The Vols are 13-4 UNDER the past two seasons after allowing 80 points in their last game. They are 10-2 UNDER the last twelve times they allowed 80+ in two straight games. American, winner of the Patriot League, will not bring much firepower here. What they do have is a very good defense. They held foes to 61.8 ppg this season. They haven't seen the likes of Tennesee's offense for sure, but their strength nonetheless is defense. Neutral court teams that outscore their opponents by 8+ per game, coming off two 80+ point performances go UNDER the next game 62% of the time as the line gets pushed out of whack. The fact is, Tennessee is 12-5 UNDER this season after scoring 80 points last game and 9-1 UNDER after a game in which 155+ points were scored. The reaction to Tennessee's last couple of games, coupled with no respect for American, has led to an inflated total and we'll take the UNDER.
Game: South Alabama vs. Butler (2:45 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Butler -4 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Butler felt a bit snubbed by the selection committee as they feel their 29-3 record, including wins over Virginia Tech, Ohio State, Florida State and S. Illinois, was deserving of a better seed. The #5 seed last year, the Bulldogs didn't make a big stink about it. But we think they are motivated to send a message in this game. While the game is being played five hours from South Alabama's campus, we think Butler has just too much talent for the Jaguars to handle. The biggest difference between these two teams is on defense. South Alabama allowed 69.4 ppg on the road this season while Butler allowed just 58.9. Coming into this tourney, the Bulldogs played superb, holding their last seven opponents to an average of 51 ppg! We like this mismatch and the motivation for Butler.
Game: Boise State vs. Louisville (9:40 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 148 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)
While Boise State enters this contest as one of the best shooting teams in the country, Louisville comes in as one of the best defensive teams in the nation. The Broncos put up some good offensive numbers, but have yet to face a team that is as tenacious on defense as Louisville. The Cardinals allow just 38.3% shooting, and 30.9% from three. Those numbers get even better when they got outside the BCS Conference schools, where they have allowed just 36.3%, and 30.3% from beyond the arc. Louisville has reached 80 just six times in its last 30 games, and we don't expect Boise State to try and get into a track meet with a quicker, more athletic team. The past three seasons, Louisville is 19-9 UNDER as a double-digit favorite. They are also 12-4 UNDER the past two seasons vs. good shooting teams like Boise State (those making 48%+ of their shots). We like this one to go UNDER the posted total.
Game: Texas Arlington vs. Memphis (9:55 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 142 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Tigers were last a #1 seed in 2006 when they lost to UCLA in the regional finals. They should have little trouble with UT Arlington in this one. While the spread is a huge 25 points, we'll focus on the more reasonable total. The Mavericks are not a bad team as they averaged 70.9 on the road this season but again Memphis, they are in for a very tough day. The Tigers allowed 59.4 ppg on the road this season (better than their home defense). They cut that to 54.2 over their last five games! Their last five foes have gotten 55, 56, 56, 53 and 51. Memphis is 17-6 UNDER in March games the past three seasons. They are 21-9 UNDER the past two seasons coming off a game in which they allowed 60 or fewere points. That includes a 10-2 UNDER mark if they allowed 60 or fewere in three straight games. We look for the Tigers to shut down Arlington in a big way, and for this game to stay UNDER the total.
Results: 3-1
NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
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