Ncaa Tournament Predictions - March 20, 2010

My NCAA Tournament Bracket is now 28-4, putting it in the top 1% of all brackets on ESPN and CBS Sports! If you are interested in my bracket picks for today, take a look at my completed 2010 NCAA Tournament Bracket. 

We went 7-4-1 in CBB yesterday including a 5-unit winner for another winning day. On the NBA side we nailed a 5-unit winner, boosting us to 15-2 in the last 17 picks. Another 5-unit NBA goes tonight.

Our 5-unit CBB, NBA and NHL picks are now 106-61 (63%) on the season and we feature two more today. We have 11 premium CBB picks including a pair of 5-unit selections as well as a pair of 4-unit plays.

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: North Carolina at Mississippi State (12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on North Carolina +7.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The Tar Heels are not used to the NIT, but with a talented youthful team, it isn't a bad spot for them to get some experieince, and an 8 point win over a talented William & Mary team that beat Wake Forest this season, shows they have come to play, not go through the motions. The Bulldogs were shunned by the NCAA tournament committee and they are not happy to be here. They played a lackluster game vs Jackson State, but won on pure talent alone. This one won't come as easy. The Tar Heels have owned the SEC, where they are a perfect 10-0-1 ATS in their last 11 encounters, and overall 43-19 ATS in non-conference games. The Bulldogs might squeeze out a win here, but the Heels are capable, and certainly are the odds on favorite to get out of this one, inside a big number. I'll go with North Carolina here.

The Bulldogs are looking for their 30th win here and are atypical of a classic 30-win team. This team isn't an offensive machine by any stretch, and may have the fewest 80+ point games of any team seeking a 30-win season as they enter here with just three, and none in their last 13 games. They have not allowed 70 points to any team that isn't from a power conference, and that covers 30 games! The fact is only one team even got to 60 against them in their last nine. The Racers have played UNDER in 10 of their last 14 as a dog, and this one is going to struggle to see the winner get out of the 50s. I'm going with the UNDER here.

Based on my analysis of certain big favorites in the NCAA tournament after round one, I believe these two teams have a very small probability of losing. The chance of both losing their games I peg at around 10%. At those odds, we should be paying a price here of over -1000. Instead we get -215. It's great value. Put them in a moneyline parlay.

While the NCAA Tournament is known for its upsets, the reality is that there really aren't a lot of big upsets. And, the ones that do occur tend to come in the first round. In the first round, a team that really didn't deserve to be ranked so highly might get caught. Or, nerves can get a hold of a team and they can lose a game they should not.

But after the first round, these things are much more rare. Now by "big" upset I'm not talking about minor surprises. Sure, a 10 seed will upset a 7 seed now and then, but that isn't necessarily a big upset. Sometimes 10 seeds are actually favored over 7 seeds. Even some larger "upsets" based on seeding aren't really that surprising because the oddsmakers tell us the teams aren't that different. This year in the first round we saw one really big upset (Ohio over Georgetown) and some medium upsets in Murray State and Cornell. Despite the large number of double-digit seed wins this year, the only real big upset (from a pointspread standpoint) was Ohio.

The point here is that there really aren't that many big upsets in the tourney, and after you get out of the first round, they really drop. I have done the number crunching and what did I find long term about upsets after round one? They very rarely happen. I analyzed games after round one and I found that in certain situations, upsets are extremely rare. Based on certain criteria, I have identified 59 games over the past five years in which one team was clearly supposed to win. In those 59 games, 57 times the favored team won. Many of those teams lost versus the spread, but the straight-up loss was almost non-existent. For the first day of Round 2 this year, there are three games that qualify for my system: Tennessee, Kentucky and Kansas.

So, I really like these three teams to win their games outright. Now, maybe you are thinking "That's not impressive - of course they are expected to win." This is true, these are all good-sized favorites. Fair enough. The question is, can we come up with a betting strategy to profit off this?

The answer is parlays. We can put these teams together in various parlay combinations to reduce the odds we need to lay. While not a big fan of parlays for every day betting, there are times when I feel they are ok and this is one of them. I normally don't like parlays because I think the odds are bad putting even-odds teams in parlays. In this case, they are great! Let's look at the numbers. First let's look at the three-team parlay, playing these teams to win straight-up. At the odds we are given here on these three teams, 3-team parlay will pay out at -160. Is that a good deal? You bet!

The reality is that if we believe each team independently has a 96.6% chance of winning their game (57 out of 59), the "fair" odds on this parlay are -910. Yes - you read that right. We should actually be laying $910 to win $100. Instead we are laying $160 to win $100. It doesn't get much better than that!

But what if we are wrong? What if the 96.6% is too high? What if these teams actually have a lower chance of winning their games? Well, maybe the 95.6% is too high. Despite the compelling data (57-2), let's assume 95.6% is too high. Let's use a more conservative number like 90%. Let's assume each of these teams only has a 90% chance of winning their game. Is that reasonable? Based on that assumption, the chance of winning all of the games is about 73%. The "fair" odds for a 73% bet is -270. So if we believe each team only has a 90% chance of winning their game, the sportsbooks should be charging us $270 to win $100 on this bet. Instead we are risking just $160.

These numbers (57-2) are impressive. Does this mean this cannot lose? Absolutely not! Just like any bet, there is a risk it will lose, so play it accordingly. If three of these teams win and one loses, this parlay loses. But, this is a risk we take with any bet. Usually on flat odds bets (-110 odds) we have about a 40-50% chance of losing. On this parlay bet, I believe the chance of losing to be closer to 10-20% so it's great in comparison.

Games played between the No. 6 seed and the No. 14 seed are not very common, and since 1999 there have been only three, and the No. 14 seed has failed to win or cover any of them. Ohio pulled off a major upset of Georgetown and for that they deserve credit. But let's not forget this team lost 14 games this year and finished .500 within their own weak conference. Tennessee will not be caught off-guard here and will look to pour it on. Their defense will be stiff and Ohio will find themselves in a very tough game. I don't see lightning striking twice. Take the Vols in a blowout here.

The North Carolina State Wolfpack are a team on the improve. Just look at their last seven games posted as an underdog, where they have claimed the outright win in five of them - all against BCS, or big six conference teams. The fact is that this team is 10-0 on the season outside the power conferences, and by season's end were winning most games against the power conferences. The Blazers appeared destined for the big dance, before closing the season with two straight losses, then suffering a third straight, bowing out of the C-USA Tournament in game one. They just couldn't play with the good teams in the conference dropping two games each to Memphis and UTEP and also Marshall, and snuck out a 2-point win in their home game with Marshall. They aren't playing well right now, and NC State is playing with confidence and purpose, so I'll back NC State here.

This game reminds me off the 2007 Tournament game between Kansas and Southern Illinois. The Salukis were a very good and experienced defensive team that controlled the clock and used their experience to give the Jayhawks a big scare, before bowing 61-58. It was a defensive clinic, and this Panthers team mirrors that Southern Illinois team in many ways. I wouldn't be surprised to see it play out in similar fashion. Northern Iowa has played 11 straight to the UNDER in neutral-site games, and is also 37-15-1 as a dog playing to the UNDER. Kansas can be explosive, but the tourney is a different animal, and they are 10-2 to the UNDER in their last 12 games in the big dance. The UNDER gets the call here.

Baylor laid 69 on a helpless Sam Houston team last game but now they face an ODU team that has held three of their last four opponents to 56 or less. On the season, ODU has held teams to just 56.9 points per game. When facing a winning team the past couple of seasons, ODU is 24-13 UNDER. That includes a 19-9 UNDER mark vs. teams at .600 or better. This season when facing teams that allow 42% or less from the field, ODU is 11-4 UNDER. And, when facing teams that score 77 or more per game, ODU is 8-1 UNDER. Catching the trend here? I like this one to go UNDER a relatively high number.

This is a classic case of Big Conference vs. mid-major. Everyone knows about Washington and the Pac-10, but New Mexico was a No. 3 seed because they come into this game with 30 wins! The Pac-10 was down this year, and Washington won the conference tournament but could muster no better than an 11 seed, which is indicative of the true power of the Pac-10 this season - it simply was not up to the level of the other five big conferences. The Lobos have it all with four scorers, and 3-point shooters, rebounding and defense. Three of their four losses came at the hands of NCAA Tourney teams, and they have nine wins against tourney teams, including California - arguably the best Pac-10 team this season. This line is made from reputation not merit, so I'll go with New Mexico here.

I have all the respect in the world for Kansas State who has a legit top 10 team this season, but under the radar lies a BYU team that is equally talented, but lesser known. Anyone who noticed Jimmer Fredette for drop 37 on Florida in their tourney opener saw the best unknown player in the tournament. Then there is Michael Loyd off the bench connecting for 27. The bottom line here is that this is a well stocked, talented BYU team that can score and defend, and will give the Wildcats all they can handle. This one should be the best game of the day, coming down to the last possession, so I'll grab the points and ride with BYU.

It has been a pretty sad state of affairs when a No. 9 seed faces a No. 1 seed in the second round of the NCAA Tournament, as they come in to this game with an overall mark of just 3-51 straight up since 1985. Kentucky scored 100 in their first game, showing that freshmen Wall and Cousins are not intimidated by the atmosphere, and in fact embrace it. That spells trouble for a Wake Forest squad that lost five of six down the stretch and needed an overtime miracle vs. another struggling team in Texas that started the season 18-0 but finished at 7-10. The Demon Deacons are not tournament darlings at 1-9 ATS in their last 10 in the dance. The Wildcats get the money here and advance.

Results: 5-6

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Here we show our NCAA basketball handicapping.
• View our college basketball prior picks here.
• Here we show our ncaa march madness brackets .
• Don't forget to read our NCAA basketball betting approach here.
• View our updated NCAA basketball lines.
• Check out our updated blog NCAA basketball picks.
• Hop over to our NCAA basketball sports book here.
• Read our NCAA basketball Game-of-Day Analysis here.
• View march madness picks here.
• Here we show our 2009 NCAA basketball prior picks results.
• View our 2009 season college basketball gambling preivew here.
• Read our NCAA basketball ATS recprds here.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-19-2010
This total is very high looking to me with a Big-10 team and the defensive nature of the conference, so it’s surprising to see this one in the 140s. Minnesota may not fit that form as well as ot...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-18-2010
Sometimes you have to break a team down as to how they do playing very good teams. The Gators have proven one thing, and that is defense is their calling card vs. the top teams. Their last five g...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-17-2010
The Bearcats really had it going and looked like they were on their way to an NCAA Tournament bid, but then the wheels fell off. The Bearcats finished the regular season at 2-7 in their last nine game...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-16-2010
Winthrop is a well-coached team and they slowed games down to win the conference tournament and get to the big dance. The Eagles allowed less than 100 combined points in the last two games to get here...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-15-2010
...