Ncaa Basketball Picks - March 20, 2009

Ouch! That was not the way we had hoped to start this year's NCAA Tourney - and for that we apologize. Today, we look to move on and put yesterday's train wreck in our rearview and never look back. We feature a baker's dozen premium CBB picks today (including three 4-unit plays) as our bounce back begins...  

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Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Stephen F. Austin vs. Syracuse (12:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Stephen F. Austin +11.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 130.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Friday’s action begins with Syracuse taking on Stephen F. Austin. The Cuse expended a lot of energy in the Big East Conference Tournament, both physically and emotionally, and you wonder the impact it will have in a game against a no-name team. We have seen them falter in this situation many times come tourney time, most recently their loss to Vermont a few years ago. The Lumberjacks went to College Station to face A&M early on, where the Aggies hardly ever lose, and played them even for 30 minutes before A&M broke loose for just a seven-point win. This team plays slow, as no one has topped 67 points against them in their last 17 games. I will take them here, along with the UNDER.

Tennessee lost 133 out of 200 minutes of contributions from last year’s team that lost trying to advance to the Elite 8. This team took some time to gain experience, and came within three points of winning the SEC Championship, so they are ready. Oklahoma State had a shinning moment in the Big-12 Tournament by knocking off Oklahoma. The problem is that they dropped all of their road conference games to the good teams. Out of conference, they got hammered by the good teams as well. I think this team is still a year away from winning in the NCAA Tournament, so I'll go with Tennessee here.

Marquette suffered a blow when PG Dominic James went down with a season-ending injury. They lost five of their last six games, but they were all to teams seeded No. 3 or higher in this tournament. They also showed us something by taking Syracuse to overtime, losing to Louisville by just four, and Villanova by just one. Utah State has not seen a team even close to the talent and experience they get here. They played nobody at all so the win column is highly inflated. Their top game was against St. Mary's who isn't even in this tournament and they lost by 11. Marquette still has a lot of weapons and experience, so I make them my choice in this one.

North Dakota State has the distinction of being the first team from North Dakota to ever play in the NCAA Tournament, and likely won't be the first to win one. They dropped perhaps their top game out of conference to Minnesota by 14. The Jayhawks are young, talented and have woven their season around defense as they lost a lot of firepower from a year ago. Their stretch of eight straight games in the Big-12 holding teams under 70 is testament to that. They have also played and 11 of their last 16 under the total. I expect this one to go UNDER as well, and that's my call here.

For some reason, the Sun Devils had trouble with the Washington schools in the Pac-10 where they went 0-4, but played very well against everyone else. Harden and Pendergraph may be one of the best inside-outside duos in the country, and they will make it difficult for Temple to defend. The Owls probably needed to win the A-10 Championship game to get here and to their credit they did. Where they have had problems is outside their own gym vs. good teams. They lost all of their road games against the top of the conference, as well as their top out-of-conference games at Clemson, Kansas, and Villanova, and are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last six as a dog. The Sun Devils are getting a huge bounce off a loss as they have been 11-2 ATS in that situation. Arizona Sate gets the call.

Dayton put up 26 wins this season, but many still doubted this team as an NCAA Tournament-caliber team. They opened the season 22-2 against a relatively soft schedule, and finished just 5-5. West Virginia put a 23-win campaign together against the deepest conference in the country, the Big East. It is a schedule that included 13 games vs. NCAA Tournament teams. The distance between these teams in wins is few, but the distance between these teams in talent is great. The oddsmakers know it, but this is still not enough as the Mountaineers get a comfortable 10+ point win here.

Last year everyone was high on this Cornell team that broke the Ivy string of Princeton and Penn winning seemingly every year. They proceeded to get hammered by 24 at the hands of Stanford. How many times do we see a team have a big year, get bounced in the NCAA Tournament, then come back with much of the same cast, and use the experience and maturity to win or play close? The role has changed, as this year it is the Missouri Tigers that have no tourney experience from a year ago and that will cost them in this one. The Tigers also aren’t carrying much weight as a chunky favorite where they are 3-9 ATS in their last 12. Cornell hangs around and gets the call. I also like this one to go UNDER the total as Missouri is 4-0 at neutral-site games last four, and Cornell has played their last five under the total.

Cleveland State was projected to win the Horizon at the beginning of the season. At the same time, no one expected Butler to be as strong as they turned out to be, but in the end it was Cleveland State that cut down the nets as Horizon Tournament Champions. It wasn't a fluke either, as they lost their two games vs. Butler both home and away by two points in the regular season. Most look at the name and think that this team can't play, but maybe those should ask Jim Boeheim of Syracuse as the Vikings went to the Carrier Dome and knocked off the Orange. Wake Forest opened the season at 16-0, held the No. 1 ranking for awhile, but closed just 8-6. You have to question this team as three of their last four losses have been by 10+, and the last loss come in the opening round of the ACC Tournament to Maryland by 11. They have struggled all season against a zone defense, and expect them to see a lot of that in this one. Cleveland St. can play and I will take them here by slowing the tempo down with a zone that has been the plague of the Deacons all season, which will also put me on the UNDER in this one.

The Siena Saints were supposed to be even better this year with most of the pieces back from last year’s NCAA Tournament team. Last year’s squad featured an upset over Vandy, before eventually bowing out to Villanova. They may be better, but they still haven't caught up to the top teams and they showed that weakness this season. They upgraded their non-conference schedule which included Tennessee, Kansas, Pittsburgh, and Oklahoma State, but they went 0-4 in those games. It wasn't just a 0-4 it was an uncompetitive 0-4, as they lost by an average over double-digits per game. This is a very telling, so I'll go with Ohio State here.

The Badgers have become a fixture in the postseason and so has their defense. Their Big-10 Conference Championship games and postseason tournament games bear out the fact that this team plays ugly - another word for defensive. Over the past 11 years their postseason mark of unders is 29-16-1 or 64.4% in all. Florida State may be a willing dance partner to ugly as nine of their last 13 have also played under the total. Wisconsin has also now played their last seven vs. teams with a winning percentage of .600+ to the UNDER, while Florida St. is 14-5-2 to the UNDER in their last 21 at a neutral site. The UNDER gets the call.

Results: 5-8

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• View our NCAA basketball prior predictions here.
• Don't forget to read our NCAA basketball sportsbook reviews here.
• Check out our updated NCAA basketball odds.
• View our march madness bracket here.
• Check out our updated NCAA basketball ATS records.
• View our march madness pick here.
• Take a look at our free NCAA basketball predictions here.
• View NCAA basketball gambling philosophy here.
• Here we show our NCAA basketball Game-of-Day Analysis.
• Hop over to our blog NCAA basketball picks here.
• Don't forget to read our 2008 season NCAA basketball gambling preview here.
• View 2008 college basketball season picks here.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-19-2009
The Memphis Tigers came within a few points of winning a national championship last year, dropping a heartbreaker in overtime at the hands of the Kansas Jayhawks. That Tigers team saw Joey Dorsey, Chr...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-18-2009
Vermont had a good run in the NCAA Tournament a couple years ago, but certainly this isn't a team on the same level. They are a good team in the American East, but they will be harshly tested here...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-17-2009
This is a opening-round game in the first-ever Collegeinsider.com Tournament. Kent State is looking for their 11th straight 20-win season, but I don't see it happening tonight. Kent State was carr...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-16-2009
...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-14-2009
Aside from an OT game with Toledo, the Zips have been very methodical, and defensive to reach this game vs Buffalo, and late in the season as well. The Zips have allowed just 55.3ppg in their last 7 M...