Ncaa Basketball Predictions - March 20, 2008

Let the Dance Begin! We start on the road to San Antonio with seven picks in today's tournament action.

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Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Portland State vs. Kansas (12:25 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 145.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The problem for the Vikings here is that their output against the few top-caliber teams they have played this year has not been good. But in those games they did manage to slow the pace. You can bet Portland State isn't interested in getting into a track meet with Kansas. They are going to slow this game down as much as they can, try to drop some 3's, and hang tough. Their game with UCLA featured just 117 total points. Against Akron 129 were scored. And a total of 132 was reached vs. Washington State. Kansas has slowed down a bit offensively as the season has worn on. They failed to reach 70 points just once in their first 24 games and have since failed to reach the 70-point mark in four of their last ten. Their early season out-of-conference games against some weaker teams showed them going 8-3 to the UNDER as well. In non-conference games overall the past two seasons, the Jayhawks are 19-10 UNDER. We like this one to stay UNDER the posted total.

The Owls were not on the radar at midesason at 14-12 but came together late and enter the tournament on a seven-game winning streak, playing their best basketball of the season. Since a January 9th ten-point loss to Duke, this team has lost just once by even as much as 6 points. It's hard to ignore two straight wins vs a good St. Joesph's team, and convincing thrashing of Xavier by 19. This team shoots the ball well at 47.2% and can knock down some 3's as they connect on 37.2%. Michigan State started strong at 19-2, but finished just 6-6. Outside of a lopsided game vs Indiana the Spartans have struggled against the top teams in the Big-10. The struggle has taken place on the offensive end of the court. They managed 70+ points in 16 of their first 23 games, but closed the season reaching the 70 point mark just twice in their last ten games. Temple is 14-5 ATS this season vs. winning teams including 8-2 int their last ten. They are also 8-1 ATS vs. teams good defensive teams (those holding foes to 42% or worse). We like the hot Owls to hang around in this one.

Two solid mid-majors square off in this one and both have had outstanding seasons. Kent State has played well on the road all season and they are 12-5 in their last 17 out of their own building. They are experienced, fundamentally solid, and most of all balanced. They can score inside and out, and are a tough team to defend. Defensively they allow just 40% from the field so they are good at both ends. UNLV got noticed by making a deep run into the tournament last year. One would think that experience would make them comfortable for an encore this season. The problem is, this is a completely different team. Players from last year's tournament that averaged 138 of 200 minutes, delivering 52.3 ppg, 24 rebounds, and 10 assists, are all gone! This is a very inexperienced team, one that could implode vs. a disiplined Kent State team. The Flashes are 12-4 ATS this season vs. winning teams including 8-2 ATS vs. those at 60%+ SU. They also know how to win expected close games as they are 11-3 ATS the past two seasons in games with a line of -3 to +3. UNLV loves the three, hoisting up 23 per game. Kent matches up superbly in that area as they are 8-1 ATS this season vs. teams that attempt 21+ bombs per game. We like the Golden Flashes here to advance.

Pittsburgh has gotten healthier as the season progressed, and the wins have followed. The big question here is what toll did playing four games in four days take on the Panthers, not just physically, but emotionally? They just beat Marquette, Louisville,and Georgetown and could come out a bit flat in this one. Oral Roberts has some players, and defends very well, allowing under 40% shooting on the season. This has the looks of an ugly game, which is often the case with Pitt anyway, but Oral Roberts can get out and defend too. The thinking here is that Pitt could get caught in an emotional trap after three straight upsets, and expending a lot of energy in Big East tourney. Oral Roberts will be playing their biggest game of the year, which usually means 40 minutes of laying it all on the floor, and we think they are good enough to spring the surprise, or certainly stay inside the number here. The icing on the cake is that the public is all over Pittsburgh with over 70% of the bets coming in on the Panthers, yet the line has moved the other way. Take Oral Roberts in this one.

Not a lot of offense on the floor here, but plenty of defense. Both these teams like to play a half-court game, and this one could be played in the 40s. Washington State has played 28-12 UNDER in their last 40 non-conference games, and at the same time has played 14 of 19 under as a 7-12.5 point favorite. Winthrop's success isn't measured on the offensive end of the floor where they have been downright bad of late. They miss a lot of scoring opportunities at the free throw line where they connect on a miserable 59%. But their defense is another story. They allow 39.1% shooting and just 30% from beyond the arc. Defense is the calling card for both here, and this one will have trouble getting to 50.

It's hard to believe what has happened at A&M. Just four years ago this program was in shambles, culminating in an 0-18 finish in the Big-12. They have since played in the post-season every year since then. It starts with superb defense, as the Aggies are one of the top defensive teams in the country, allowing just 39% against a very tough schedule. They play with the ultimate team concept. They have two players with over 100 assists, and seven that average over 3 rpg, and their top six scorers are separated by just 3 ppg. They have thrived against good competition having been 33-16 ATS vs teams with a .600+ winning percentage, and can play away from their home-court as they are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 neutral court games. That includes 3-0 this year in the Big-12 tourney. BYU is virtually unbeatable at home where they have racked up 47 straight wins. The road has been a different story. They are never an underdog at home, and they have played to a 24-56-2 ATS mark as a dog. As great as they have been at home, when you get them out of that building, they struggle. They have had some very good teams over the past decade, but even so, they haven't been able to come away with their conference tournament since 2002-03. To their credit, they have taken advantage of their home-court dominance, but the problem is, they become a different team when they aren't there. They are just 4-14 SU against BCS conference teams over the last five years when they don't get them on their court. On the flipside, Texas A&M is 11-2 ATS the past three seasons in neutral court games and 13-4 ATS in all March games over that span. We like the Aggies to advance in this one.

The biggest mis-match of the tournament, according to the odds-makers, is UCLA appearing as a 30+ point favorite over the Delta Devils of Mississippi Valley State. Looking at some of the scores the Delta Devils have put up vs some of the top games on their schedule, it isn't pretty. They managed just 26 vs Pac-10 Washington State, 45 vs Pittsburgh, 46 vs Creighton, 46 vs Tulsa and 40 vs Air Force. They did play good defense, though and held three of their last four opponents to under 59 or less.  UCLA's calling card is defense, as they give up under 60 per game. Bruins early out-of-conference schedule shows eight UNDERs to just 4 OVERs, with lots of low scoring games. They could hold this team in the 30s, and the Bruins have not touched 90 all season. Under Ben Howland, they are 31-20 UNDER in non-conference games and 12-4 UNDER on the road vs. slow-down teams like their opponent today that take under 54 shots per game. UCLA is not a team to run it up, and therefore we look for this game to play UNDER.

Results: 3-4

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Don't forget to read our sports betting NCAA basketball here.
• Check out college basketball betting approach here.
• Take a look at our ncaa picks here.
• Take a look at our 2007 NCAA basketball preview here.
• View NCAA basketball Game-of-Day Analysis here.
• Check out our updated 2007 NCAA basketball prior picks results.
• Don't forget to read our march madness brackets here.
• View college basketball ATS standings here.
• Hop over to our blog college basketball here.
• Updated today: college basketball predictions.
• Read our NCAA basketball prior picks here.
• View our NCAA basketball spreads here.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-19-2008
The Hokies may be feeling snubbed by NCAA committee and find themselves in the NIT (Not In Tournament). Morgan State had a 15-1 run stopped in their conference final, as an even hotter Coppin State te...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-18-2008
This game kicks off the College Basketball Invitational - a new single elimination tournament to be held on the home courts of the higher seeds. This is Rider's first tournament game since th...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-17-2008
...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-16-2008
These teams have played very competitive against each other with both games going to OT. These games saw 196 and 178 points scored, but more importantly 164 and 162 before OT. The Tar Heels are puttin...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-15-2008
Hartford? UMBC? Who the heck are they? Exactly. We think there's value on this game, in part due to the lack of attention to this America East Conference title game. We think the dog has a good sh...