Basketball Gambling Pick - March 19, 2010

What a day in the tournament yesterday as the lower seeds took care of business! So did we with a nice winning day!

We got the dancing started off on the right shoe yesterday, nailing 14 of our 16 bracket picks including upsets of No. 13 Murray State over No. 4 Vanderbilt, No. 11 Washington over No. 6 Marquette, No. 11 ODU over No. 6 Notre Dame and No. 10 St. Mary's over No. 7 Richmond. If you are interested in seeing the rest of my completed bracket, go here: Wunderdog's Completed 2010 NCAA Tournament Bracket. 

We also had a winning day on our 11 premium picks yesterday. Today we are on the dance floor with 12 premium ATS and TOTALS picks from day two of the NCAA Tourney including a 5-unit pick.

WUNDERDOG 2010 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
NFL	46-29 last 75 picks	61%	+$4060
CFB	25-10 last 35 picks	71%	+$6040
MLB	265-219 last 484 picks	55%	+$8370
CBB	18-16 last 34 picks	53%	+$170
NBA	14-2 last 16 picks	88%	+$3780
NHL	274-210 last 484 picks	57%	+$11150
WNBA	121-90 last 211 picks	57%	+$5490
TOTAL			+$39060

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Minnesota vs. Xavier (12:25 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 143 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

This total is very high looking to me with a Big-10 team and the defensive nature of the conference, so it’s surprising to see this one in the 140s. Minnesota may not fit that form as well as other Big-10 teams, but it is still a team that has failed to get out of the 60s in 11 of their last 16 games, and 12 of 16 if you don't include overtime. The Musketeers played all three of their tourney games a year ago to the UNDER with no game totaling more than 136. On a neutral court, the Musketeers have also turned in a 10-3 mark to the UNDER in their last 13 and vs. Big-10 teams, they are 5-2 to the UNDER as well. The Golden Gophers have been slowed down by good teams where they are 9-4 to the UNDER vs. teams with a winning percentage of over .600. I'll ride with the UNDER in this one.

The Temple Owls are one of the toughest defensive teams in the country. They swept through the A-10 Conference Tournament, allowing just an average of 48 points per game. They also play a half-court game, limiting possessions. The result is their last 10 opponents, not including overtime minutes, have failed to get to 60. The Big Red is an experienced team, and no stranger to defense either, holding seven teams in the 40s this season and have played 18-8 to the UNDER in their last 26. Temple is at six straight UNDERs in neutral-site contests, and 12-4-1 in non-conference games to the UNDER in their last 17. I'll go with the UNDER in this one.

Jamie Dixon has put together some rugged, experienced and talented Pitt teams over the last decade, but they often lose their way and underachieve in the big dance. This team lacks the experience of many of those teams. The Golden Grizzlies were battle tested early, and it helped this team come together and improve game by game, finishing out at 20-1 in their last 21. Keith Benson is a tough match-up for anyone with 17 points per game and 10.5 rebounds per game, and at 6'11" will be a handful for Pitt inside. Derick Nelson gives them the perfect inside-out game as he connects on 40% of his 3's. Oakland has gone for 70 in 18 of their last 20 games, and Pitt isn't as "sticky" defensively as they have been in the past. Oakland hangs tough here and gets the call.

It doesn't say Davidson on the uniform, and their is no Stephen Curry, but that doesn't mean that this Wofford team isn't as equally competent coming out of the Southern Conference, with 26 wins on the season. Those 26 wins is exactly the number Davidson had when they made their big run. The Terriers are 13-0 in their last 13, and 19-1 in their last 20. This is a team that lost to Pitt on the road by 3, and by 12 at Michigan State and beat Georgia and South Carolina. The Badgers are tough on the defensive end and have touched 80 just once in 21 games, so they are certainly not a high-scoring team. The Badgers have long been a defense-first team, and going back 12 years, their postseason resume shows 32 UNDERs to 17 overs, including eight of the last 10 UNDER. This is a lot of points in what will be a low-scoring game vs. a competent team. I'm going with Wofford and the UNDER here.

I'm not excited about the prospective winner in this one, but can say with 100% certainty that the Aggies will win this one, just not sure if that means the Utah State version, or the A&M version. I do like the UNDER here as the Utah State version of the Aggies play relentless defense every single game. They are 17-1 over their last 18 games, and no team has reached 70 on them without the benefit of overtime. They have held one team in the 30s, two in the 40s, and seven in the 50s during the run. The Texas A&M version of the Aggies allowed just 62.9 points per game in their 14 out-of conference tilts, with 67% of those UNDER. They have been a perfect 4-0 to the UNDER with a total posted at 135 or less. This game will be won on the defensive end, so I like the UNDER here.

The Gonzaga Bulldogs have become a fixture in the NCAA Tournament. This is a team that can seldom get any big teams to come and play them on their home court, so they are seasoned, playing in hostile arenas year after year and it should help them here as they are very road tested. Gonzaga has been the top underdog in college basketball because of having a good team, and having to play the top teams on the road. They have not had a losing season ATS as an underdog over each of the last seven years, and this year they were at their best. The Bulldogs finished at 6-1 ATS as a dog this year. The Seminoles have been overrated by the oddsmakers all season, finishing at a money-burning 8-18 ATS. That included 4-12 ATS as a favorite. I'll go with Gonzaga in this one.

Looking back at yesterday, there was only one game that was decided by more than 18 points as Kentucky won by 29. Almost half of the games ended with the loser coming up one possession short, or by 3 points or less. I don't expect Arkansas Pine Bluff to be in a one-possession game with Duke, but I do believe that the distance between a lot of these games that appear to be mismatches on paper, are a lot closer than many would think. It has been nearly 10 years since Duke cut down the nets in this tournament, and their post-season resume since has been brutal. Duke is just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 ACC Tournament games, including 0-3 this year. They have also been a huge underachiever in the big dance, exiting much earlier than their seed would indicate, and entering here with a composite 2-10 ATS mark in their last five tourneys. That puts the post-season resume at Duke in at 5-19 ATS. This is too many points, so I'm going with Arkansas Pine Bluff.

You could hear the groan in Syracuse Coach Boeheim’s gut, when the announcement came he would be pared against Vermont. The Cuse was a first round loser in ‘05 to the Catamounts. I don't think history will repeat itself, but there is one aspect of that game I expect to hold true, and that is the 117 combined points scored in that one, including overtime. There were just 114 shots taken including the extra sessions and just a combined 20 free throws, so expect Vermont to play slow and shorten the game. The Cuse suffered losses in their last two games, after dropping just one all season prior to the finales. Syracuse is 0-3 ATS on the season when they fail to get to 70, and this one certainly looks like a low-scoring, controlled game by the Catamounts, who are 8-0 ATS vs. teams over .600, and 4-0 to the UNDER as a dog of 13+. I'll go with Vermont and the UNDER here.

The UC Santa Barbara Gauchos hit a stretch early in the season where it looked like being in this spot was laughable. The Gauchos had gone 1-6 in seven games, and were completely out of sync. The before and after have been magnificent as they have otherwise been 19-3, and that changes the entire perception of this team. They are a dangerous team with their top three scorers all capable of knocking down 3's, and are combined hitting over 40% of them. The Buckeyes are obviously a better team with Evan Turner on the floor, and he saved them from an early exit in the Big-10 Tourney with a prayer 3 that connected as time expired, and then another OT escape vs. Illinois, so the margin for this team is not as wide as this pointspread would indicate. The Buckeyes’ 2-9 ATS mark in their last 11 tournament games as a favorite doesn't inspire confidence here. The Gauchos are 14-3 to the UNDER at a neutral site, indicative of their approach. The Buckeyes are 5-1 to the UNDER as a chalk of 13+. I like UC Santa Barbara and the UNDER in this one.

Results: 7-4

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Check out college basketball predictions here.
• Hop over to our NCAA basketball record here.
• Don't forget to visit our ncaa march madness brackets .
• Read our college basketball sports handicapping philosophy here.
• Read our NCAA basketball spreads here.
• Don't forget to read our blog NCAA basketball picks here.
• Check out NCAA basketball sportsbook reviews here.
• Here we show our college basketball Game-of-Day Analysis.
• Read our ncaa march madness pick here.
• View our updated 2009 NCAA basketball prior picks results.
• Check out 2009 NCAA basketball betting preview here.
• Take a look at our NCAA basketball ATS recprds here.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-18-2010
Sometimes you have to break a team down as to how they do playing very good teams. The Gators have proven one thing, and that is defense is their calling card vs. the top teams. Their last five g...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-17-2010
The Bearcats really had it going and looked like they were on their way to an NCAA Tournament bid, but then the wheels fell off. The Bearcats finished the regular season at 2-7 in their last nine game...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-16-2010
Winthrop is a well-coached team and they slowed games down to win the conference tournament and get to the big dance. The Eagles allowed less than 100 combined points in the last two games to get here...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-15-2010
...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-14-2010
Richmond beat Temple by 17 points last time they met. Now they are getting points. Yes, you can argue for revenge motivation, and Temple is very good. But the fact remains that Richmond knows they can...