Ncaa Picks - March 19, 2009

The tournament is here! With 16 opening round games today, I am as excited as can be! I have done a lot of research for this tournament and as a result, I have premium picks in 13 of the 16 games! Yes - it's a virtual smorgasbord!

While I debated cutting the number down, the fact is I like each of these picks and I am playing them all myself. In the end, I didn't think it was fair to hold back on some of the picks to get down to an arbitrary number.

For some I know that the large number of picks is music to your ears - lots of action! Others won't want to bet that many games. That's fine - there is no right answer - your choice. If you fall into the latter category, simply bet a subset (ones you agree with or the higher-rated plays). If you are betting these all, as always, keep each bet to 1% per unit of your bankroll. Either way, have a great day one and we'll have tomorrow's picks in your hands early Friday morning.

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Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Cal State Northridge vs. Memphis (12:25 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 132.5 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)

The Memphis Tigers came within a few points of winning a national championship last year, dropping a heartbreaker in overtime at the hands of the Kansas Jayhawks. That Tigers team saw Joey Dorsey, Chris Douglas Roberts and Derrick Rose all either use up eligibility, or declare for the draft. Those three players combined for 46 of the 68 points scored in the championship game - 67.6%! They also dished out 12 of the team's 14 assists. How in the world are they back again, as a No. 2 seed and strong candidate for another Final 4? John Calipari doesn't rebuild at Memphis, he reloads. And he has another freshman sensation in Tyreke Evans, who in his first year leads Memphis in scoring. Shawn Taggert and Antonio Anderson emerged as double-digit scorers, and Robert Dozier elevated his game. The result? Memphis hasn't skipped a beat in terms of wins and losses. But, the offense isn't nearly as good. It's about defense as this team defends as well as anyone in the country. How good? They gave up 43 points per game in the three games in the C-USA Championship round. They have allowed an average of 48.5 ppg in their last 12 overall. Last year's team put up 80+ in 19 games. Meanwhile this year in the last 13 games, Memphis has reached 80 just once. CS Northridge at 17-13 is fortunate to be here. They were 6-10 to start the season and finished 11-3 to make their way into the tournament. They have done it with defense, as those 14 games down the stretch saw teams average just 65 ppg against them and no team touched them off for 80+. If Memphis, with their superior athleticism and tenacious defense, holds them to 50 or less, like they have with just about everyone, this total of 130+ would require a lot from the Tigers offense. Memphis would have to go over 80 to push it over, something they have done just once in their last 13 games. And, this is something Northridge hasn't allowed happen in their last 14 games. Too many things have to happen in an unexpected way to push this one OVER the total and my play here is on the UNDER, which has also prevailed in 11 of Memphis' last 12 games.

The Mountain West was a much tougher conference this season than in years past, and that should have prepared BYU much better for the tournament than past entries. That along with games against Utah State, Wake Forest, and Arizona State will help them here. The Cougars get it done on both ends of the floor as they topped 80 points 13 times, but allowed just two opponents to do the same. Their two leading scorers are also the two top assist-makers on the team, so they are a highly disciplined, unselfish team. Texas A&M has always been a top team at home, but on the road, disappointing as they beat the bottom of the conference on the road, but lost every game to the good teams. BYU has the experience and the ability to win on the road, which A&M just hasn't shown, so I am going with BYU in this one.

While Radford put up points in a hurry in conference play, when they stepped out against teams on a higher level, they were stopped cold. They managed just 54 at West Virginia, 66 at Virginia, and 61 at Wake Forest. This is a better team, and they will have trouble scoring here as well. That puts a lot of pressure on Carolina to be pushing 100 in this one and with the amount of garbage time likely in this one, I don't see that happening. I like this one to go UNDER the total.

The California Bears are one of the best shooting teams in the country. None of their top eight players shoot under 45%. It doesn't stop there. The top three scorers - Randle, Christopher, and Robertson, have combined to knock down 182 threes in 408 attempts. That works out to be 44.6%. To put that in perspective that is better than 231 teams in NCAAB shooting percentage on all shots. That is a problem in this one for Maryland who ranks just No. 180 in defending the three-pointers. Too much firepower here, so I'm going with Cal to get this one.

The UConn Huskies have the reputation of being a fast-break team, but with the size they have inside, that is not the case anymore. They rarely score big, and their defense is one of the tops in the country, so I don’t expect Chattanooga to do much damage either. UConn held 15 teams in the 50s or less this season, and 20 teams to 61 or less. That led to 14 of their last 19 regular-season games going under the total. The Moccasins are 4-0 UNDER in their last four neutral-site games, and I'm calling for this one to go UNDER the total.

The Minnesota Golden Gophers did the best job they could of trying to play their way out of the NCAA Tournament. They opened the season with a 16-1 mark, only to completely come undone, and closed the season with just a 6-9 mark. When you consider that four of the six wins came against Northwestern, and Indiana, there isn't much good that happened with this Gophers’ team for the entire second half of the season. They played a very soft early schedule, and their entry here is due in large part to wins they accumulated against soft teams. Texas played a much more difficult schedule before Big-12 play, with games against four teams in the tournament. The Golden Gophers are not very golden when posted as an underdog, as they are 8-20 ATS in that role in their last 28. Texas wins, covers, and advances here.

Michigan is a surprise to be here, and finished just 9-9 in conference play, but did some good things along the way like beating Duke and UCLA, as well as Purdue in conference play, but overall this team is young, and has been inconsistent. They are going to face a Clemson team that likes to utilize pressure as a weapon, and I could see that doing in a young Michigan team that loses its identity at times, becomes mistake prone, and takes bad shots. Clemson is 5-1 ATS against the Big-10 while Michigan 1-5-1 ATS against ACC, and more importantly, the Wolverines are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine as neutral-site dog. Clemson wins this one.

American University isn't Princeton, but they may be the closest thing this tournament has seen since Pete Caril left the Tigers and retired. The last 23 games American has played just one team reached the 70-point mark, and on the season they held 17 teams in the 50s or less. It will be a challenge for Nova to keep their poise and not rush shots trying to break the pace of the game. Nova scored in bunches this season, but they have also played UNDER to a mark of 14-3-1 in their last 18 non-conference games. I like this one to play Princeton-like in the 50s, and I will back the UNDER here.

The Zips have poked along all season, and their tempo is about that of a snail. They have held 19 teams on the season to below 60 points. This total believe it or not is the second-highest total they have played to this season, and the other one went UNDER. Gonzaga likes to get out and run, but they played a similar style team in Washington State and that game played in the 120s. The Zips get slower the better the team they play, and have now gone 6-0 to the UNDER against teams with a .600 winning percentage or higher, while Gonzaga is 7-2 to the UNDER as a neutral-court favorite. I like this one to go UNDER.

This is not the vintage offensive Duke team Coach K has put on the floor in years past, but there is always a constant about his teams, and that is they play hard on the defensive end of the floor for 40 minutes. Even when he has had big scoring offensive teams, the post season has been different. Duke has played 29 NCAA Tournament games since 1999-00, and 19 of the 29 have gone UNDER the total, or 65.5%. They have also seen 24 of their last 35 as a favorite go UNDER the total, as well as 10 of their last 12 on a neutral court. Binghamton doesn't get many lined games, but when they do, five of the last six have played UNDER the total. I like this one to go UNDER.

Oklahoma is a rare team, as they are a very high seed, but only have two players that average 10 or more points a game. One interesting side note to that is no team has ever won a National Championship without at least three double-digit scorers. I would be surprised if Morgan State doesn't pack a zone defense surrounding Blake Griffin, and dare the Sooners to win this one from outside, where they don't have a player shooting over 37% from behind the arc. It is because this team wins by second-chance points, Blake Griffin, and a very good defense. Morgan State is not a running team, and they won't try to be here either, so  I like this one to finish UNDER the total.

The UCLA Bruins are back again, and they always seem to step it up come tourney time. The Bruins are a tough defensive team and that is going to make VCU struggle to get good shots, and if they do early, it could be lights out fast in this one. The Rams are not a strong offensive team, and they are very one-dimensional with Eric Maynor at 22.4 ppg, he is the only consistent threat to deal with, and UCLA is too good for one player to take them down. The Bruins get it done when they are a solid favorite as they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven as a favorite of 7-12.5 points, and I look for them to win and cover here.

The Hilltoppers made a nice tourney run last year, winning two before bowing out by 10 to UCLA. Tyrone Brazelton had 31 points and Courtney Lee 18 in that game against UCLA, and unfortunately they are no longer wearing Hilltoppers uniforms. This is a much less explosive and experienced team, and they don't have the go-to duo they did a tear ago. Illinois is about as good a defensive team the Hilltoppers will have seen all year. As mentioned, Western Kentucky does not have the offense they did a year ago, and Illinois has been an under machine with 12 of their last 17 going under, so I’ll take the UNDER in this one.

Results: 2-11

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Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-18-2009
Vermont had a good run in the NCAA Tournament a couple years ago, but certainly this isn't a team on the same level. They are a good team in the American East, but they will be harshly tested here...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-17-2009
This is a opening-round game in the first-ever Collegeinsider.com Tournament. Kent State is looking for their 11th straight 20-win season, but I don't see it happening tonight. Kent State was carr...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-16-2009
...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-14-2009
Aside from an OT game with Toledo, the Zips have been very methodical, and defensive to reach this game vs Buffalo, and late in the season as well. The Zips have allowed just 55.3ppg in their last 7 M...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-13-2009
UC Santa Barbara is off a big finish in Big West play, as they closed the season on a 7-1 run and made that 8-1 with their win last night over Fullerton. The defensive effort has made the difference a...