Ncaa Picks Free - March 18, 2010

Lace-up your dancing shoes and get ready for the opening round of the 2010 NCAA Tournament.

We went 8-3 last night for +17 units across all sports with CBB being the only loser. Today we roll with 11 premium picks from round one of the NCAA Tourney.

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Florida vs. B Y U (12:20 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 147 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Sometimes you have to break a team down as to how they do playing very good teams. The Gators have proven one thing, and that is defense is their calling card vs. the top teams. Their last five games vs. teams in the dance have shown none to get over the 140 total points scored mark. The average points scored has been 132.4 ppg in the five. It has been their calling card for years, resulting in a 37-16 mark to the UNDER vs. teams with a winning percentage of over .600. The Gators have also been 18-6 to the UNDER in their last 24 out-of conference games. While BYU has proven it can score in the up-tempo Mountain West, they only played one non-conference game vs. an NCAA Tournament bound team, and were held to a very telling season-low 61 points. I'm going with the UNDER in this one.

Notre Dame did a great job down the stretch after losing their star player Luke Harongody for several games with a bruised knee. Irish coach Mike Brey made a decision to go into a slowdown, shot-clock burning half court offense to shorten games without his star. Despite Harongody returning, the offense worked so well that he has decided to stick to it because his players were really good in it. What has happened is that Notre Dame has gone from a push-the-ball offensive team to a slowdown, half-court team. The difference has shown them averaging just 58 points per game in their last five, while allowing just 52.8 ppg. If you subtract the overtime points scored vs. Marquette, the numbers decrease by about 2 ppg. Notre Dame is now 10-1 to the UNDER as a neutral-site favorite, and Old Dominion, very content in the half-court game, is 8-3 to the UNDER in their last 11 as a dog, as well as 8-2 to the UNDER out-of conference in their last 10. I'll go with the UNDER here.

The Robert Morris Colonials finished the season on a 19-4 run, and have played as a much-improved team. This team isn't going to run up and down the floor and get in a track meet with a much superior and more athletic Villanova team, and they will run their half-court sets, and play tough defense, which is what they do best. This is a team that allowed 70+ points in 12 of their first 17 games, but just twice in their last 17 games, so they have created a winning formula. The Wildcats opened the season at 20-1, but really have struggled to find that level since, finishing the season a disappointing 4-6. It is an offense that peaked too early, scoring 80+ in 14 of 17 games, but have since have not touched 80 in seven straight games. This is a lot of points with a struggling offense, facing a slowdown team that plays some defense. I'll go with Robert Morris and the UNDER here.

Not many have heard of the Sam Houston St. Bearkats, but they will soon see this team is talented. They closed the season on a 17-2 run. They also won't be intimidated here, as they played Kentucky in Lexington and outscored the Wildcats in the second half, and dropped the game by just 10 points. Corey Allmond dropped 37 on the Wildcats, and he is not even their leading scorer, so there is plenty to worry about for the Bears. Baylor certainly isn't devoid of talent as the Bears can play too, but this line is set high, because no one knows the Bearkats, but they will find out. Baylor is a good defensive team and held 22 opponents to 70 or less on the season, so I don't expect a shootout here, as the oddsmakers suggest, and the Bears are 10-4-1 to the UNDER after a straight-up loss. This one is close, so I will go with Sam Houston State and the UNDER.

The Sun Belt certainly gains no notoriety in NCAAB, but the conference has snuck up on a lot of teams in the NCAA Tournament, sporting an 8-3 ATS mark in their last 11 in the big dance. The Mean Green has been really coming on at the right time and will enter here off the confidence of 11 straight in the win column. The defense has really delivered, holding opponents in the 60s or less in 10 of their last 12 games. The Wildcats are not exactly coming in strong at just 2-3 in their last five, nearly matching their loss total of four through their first 28 games. The Mean Green is a sterling 18-5 ATS in their last 23 at a neutral site, and 8-2 to the UNDER off a win. This one is closer than it looks, and I will go with North Texas and the UNDER here.

The Northern Iowa Panthers are a precision team that plays methodically in the half-court, and perhaps the best pure defensive team in the country. That may be evidenced by the fact they walked through the MVC Tournament sweeping the three games, allowing just 44 points per game. The Panthers have only allowed four of their last 28 opponents to top the 60-point mark. They have won 10 of their last 12 games and in the process, failed to reach 60 points eight times themselves, and on the season stand at 21-7 to the UNDER. The Runnin’ Rebels finished their Championship game showing just 100 total points scored, and this one looks to play the same way. The Panthers are a perfect 11-0 to the UNDER as a dog, and UNLV is 4-0 UNDER vs. teams with a winning percentage of over .600. UNDER is the call.

The Kansas Jayhawks are a talented team, and usually looked upon as very offensive, but this team is a better defensive team and often finds themselves playing lower-scoring games than most would think. The Jayhawks, in their last 16 games, playing to a total of over 145 points, have gone 13-3 to the UNDER. They have also gone 6-1 to the UNDER facing a total of over 145 in their last seven postseason games. The Mountain Hawks surely are not going to make this a track meet, or they will get blown out of the building. While they have scored well vs. Patriot League opponents, their only true test was against Richmond, the only NCAA Tourney bound team they faced, and they scored just 53. Kansas, to many people's surprise, has played UNDER in 10 of their last 11 NCAA Tournament games, and I don't see anything here to change that. I'll go with the UNDER here.

It is never disappointing getting to the NCAA Tournament, but there are a lot of questions surrounding these teams. Texas opened the season looking like a team ready to cut down the nets at the end of this tournament at 17-0, but how quickly they began to fall. They went from the No. 1 team in the country to a No. 8 seed over an eight week period. It is easy to see what went wrong for the Horns. The offense through their 17-0 start was producing 87.2 points per game, but since then, while they have gone just 7-9, the offense has lost 13 ppg! Wake Forest has met a similar fate, opening the season 18-5, but closing it at 1-5. The Demon Deacons’ offense has been the culprit. Wake averaged 78.8 ppg until finishing the last five games averaging 18.6 ppg less! That means combined these teams are now producing close to 32 ppg less than when they were peaking, ands that spells falling short of the total here, so UNDER gets the call.

Results: 6-5

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• View NCAA basketball handicapping here.
• View college basketball prior predictions here.
• Don't forget to visit our ncaa tournament picks.
• Take a look at our college basketball betting approach here.
• Take a look at our college basketball lines here.
• Don't forget to read our blog college basketball picks here.
• View our NCAA basketball sportsbook here.
• Don't forget to visit our NCAA basketball Game-of-Day Analysis.
• Take a look at our ncaa march madness picks here.
• Check out 2009 NCAA basketball prior pick results here.
• Don't forget to read our 2009 NCAA basketball betting preview here.
• View NCAA basketball ATS records here.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-17-2010
The Bearcats really had it going and looked like they were on their way to an NCAA Tournament bid, but then the wheels fell off. The Bearcats finished the regular season at 2-7 in their last nine game...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-16-2010
Winthrop is a well-coached team and they slowed games down to win the conference tournament and get to the big dance. The Eagles allowed less than 100 combined points in the last two games to get here...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-15-2010
...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-14-2010
Richmond beat Temple by 17 points last time they met. Now they are getting points. Yes, you can argue for revenge motivation, and Temple is very good. But the fact remains that Richmond knows they can...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-13-2010
The Kentucky Wildcats have lost just two games this season and one was to the Tennessee Volunteers, so they won't be intimidated here. Along the way the Wildcats had several close calls, and altho...