We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Butler vs. Maryland (3:20 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Butler +5.5

Maryland got by a good Davidson team 82-70 to get here. Butler played yet another ugly game against Old Dominion, and came out a winner 57-46. Davidson was made to order for Maryland, as they really like to push it, and Maryland is at their best when the game is up-tempo. It is clear to see they when they struggle, and that is in a game that features half-court offense making them defend the entire shot clock. They lost twice to Miami, Florida and the games were both played in the 120s. They lost to VA in a game played in the low 130s. They lost to VA Tech in a game that saw just 118 points scored before OT. They lost to BC in a game that was in the mid 130s. Now they face one of the most disciplined teams in the country in Butler. The posted total here speaks loud and clear. It is in the low 130s, and MD has not had a game set this low the entire season. The difference is that Butler is better than any of those other teams that played methodically against Maryland. How effective is this style? Butler played Purdue, Indiana, Tennessee, Gonzaga, Notre Dame, Southern Illinois, and ODU. They went 6-1 in those games. They allowed just 67 total assists in those seven games for less than 10 assists a game - their defense is just that good! They also turn you over. They did not have a negative turnover margin in any of those games, and ended with nearly a +6 per game. Yes, they win ugly. Another way to put that is they win with defense and by taking care of the ball. We will ride the dog here, and would not be at all surprised if they come away with the outright win!

VCU has had a great season, but some things pop out at you when you take a closer look. There is not a team that is left in this tournament they have beaten all season. They have lost four games to teams that aren't even in this tournament, and two of those were on their home court. Sometimes when you see a team with a lofty record that didn't play anyone, it doesn't mean they can't beat them, but here is a team that has failed miserably when facing good teams and Pitt is better than good. Pitt has lost 4 of its 7 games to teams still in the tournament, with two of the others being Marquette. The only other loss was to Oklahoma State on the road, a team that was on fire at the time and 11-1. The strength of VCU is shooting the three-point shot, something that Pitt defends very well at 30%. Pitt will win this one by double digits.

Michigan State kind of slips under the radar because they are in a conference with two top teams in Wisconsin and Ohio State. Michigan St. lost at No. 2 seed Wisconsin by two points and beat them at home. They lost to No. 1 seed Ohio St. on the road by a basket. They lost to Maryland by two, beat BYU by 15 on a neutral court and beat Texas by two points on a neutral court. The one thing these teams all share is that they are all still in the tournament. North Carolina has struggled at times. This is a talent laden team that plays sloppy during the course of a game. Too much respect here for NC, and not enough for Michigan St. Closer than it looks.