Ncaa Basketball Tournament Picks - March 16, 2010

The college basketball post-season tournaments begin today and we hit the floor running with seven premium picks. Over the last three days we are on an 8-4 (67%) college hoops run, good for +11 units.

My completed NCAA Tournament Bracket is ready! Get it here for $15.

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Winthrop vs. Arkansas Pine Bluff (7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Winthrop -3.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 113 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Winthrop is a well-coached team and they slowed games down to win the conference tournament and get to the big dance. The Eagles allowed less than 100 combined points in the last two games to get here. Arkansas Pine Bluff worked in similar fashion as they held their last two opponents to an amazing 82 total points. Needless to say, this one very well could play in the low, to mid-forties. Winthrop has been a good choice on a neutral court where they are 11-3 ATS in their last 14. The Golden Lions, often not a lined team, have covered just one of their last six. Winthrop has the pedigree and coaching advantage here, so I'll back them in this one, along with the UNDER.

Looking at this number, it seems way to low as South Florida was favored by a similar 2.5, over a better Cincinnati team at home. The Bulls, in their last 21 games, only had two losses to teams that are not in the NCAA Tournament, so they really played well and were 7-1-1 ATS as a favorite of 6.5 or less. North Carolina State has struggled too many times to score points, never touching 60 points in three ACC Tournament games. They will also have to contend with Dominique James who is capable of 30 points all by himself. This is a tough spot for the Pack, so I'm going with South Florida here.

The Blazers at 23-5, looked like a cinch for the big dance, but the season ended the worst way possible as they dropped each of their last three games, costing them a bid. I don't see this team getting excited about the NIT, and particularly Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers had their best season ever at 28-6, and will be glad to still be playing. This is a very good shooting team with each of their top four scorers averaging over 47% shooting for the year, and this club is 5-0 ATS in their last five posted as a dog. They will be focused on beating a mid-major team here, while for UAB it isn't anything to get excited about. I'll go with Coastal Carolina here.

St. Louis went one and done in the A-10 Tourney, and will host Indiana State here. The Billikens can play defense, but really struggle to score and after their top two options, the shooting percentages are awful. They don't have a player averaging over three assists per game, so the offense is very individually dependant. The Sycamores came on strong midway through the season and blowout losses became much more competitive games. The result was a 9-2 ATS mark in their last 11 games. They have also gone 20-8 ATS in their last 28 on the road as well as 20-8 ATS in their last 28 as a dog. I'll go with Indiana State in this one.

One has to really wonder about this Seton Hall team as the locker room has been very disruptive as they closed the season on a huge negative. It got so bad that Robert Mitchell was dismissed from the team for his comments about how unprepared the coach had them for games. That kind of talk is not conducive for a lot of focus, and Texas Tech is a very solid team that played a much stronger schedule. Seton Hall is just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games overall and owns no wins in their last 10 home games by 10 points or more! The Red Raiders are up to the task here as this is a huge overlay, Texas Tech gets the call.

Mississippi State came within one-tenth of a second of beating Kentucky in regulation, but the ruling was for a basket to count, and the game subsequently went to OT, where the Bulldogs lost by 1. It was the second OT loss of the year to Kentucky, and it cost them an NCAA berth. It will be hard to swallow that bad taste and get anything going emotionally here for Jackson State. Jackson State saw a 13-game winning streak end, along with their NCAA Tournament hopes. This is a team that finished 19-2 in their last 21 games. Playing a Mississippi State team that is emotionally crippled right now and won't likely be bringing their "A" game allows them to hang around here. I'll go with Jackson State in this one.

Results: 3-4

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Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-15-2010
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NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-14-2010
Richmond beat Temple by 17 points last time they met. Now they are getting points. Yes, you can argue for revenge motivation, and Temple is very good. But the fact remains that Richmond knows they can...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-13-2010
The Kentucky Wildcats have lost just two games this season and one was to the Tennessee Volunteers, so they won't be intimidated here. Along the way the Wildcats had several close calls, and altho...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-12-2010
The Duke Blue Devils are a huge favorite in this one, and I don't think they will be going with starters deep into the second half with a likely three straight games in three days. It is has been ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-11-2010
The Hurricanes have been held to the 60s or less in 10 ACC games, and aren't a team that likes to get out and run, but would rather work in the half-court. After touching 70 in 13 of their first 1...