We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: New Mexico St. vs. Texas (12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on New Mexico St. +8

If you want to put a barometer on a team that plays in a confrence you don't get to see or hear about too much, then measure them against a team of the same ilk. Nevada has a lot of "Texas" in them. They have the dominant All-American player, the good point guard, and outstanding supporting cast. nevada is much more experienced however. New Mexico St. beat Nevada by 7, and lost to them by 4 on the road. So this 25 win team is for real. Texas is young and just 6-7 away from home this season. They can score some points, but shoot a poor 42% from the field on the road. N. Mexico St. can score with them, as they shoot 48%, and 39% from 3. This could be an upset in the making, so we will gladly take the plentiful points.

Memphis will enter this game with the nations longest winning streak at 22 games. This team does not appear nearly as strong as last season's team that went deep into the tournament. They ran away from a very weak conference field. The second place finisher, C. Florida, needed OT to beat a non-div1-A team in Rollins. Memphis has been very stingy defensively, as they have held opponents to 38.3% shooting. The 3 tests they did have early in the season, may show they are the most vulnerable #2 seed. They lost to Georgia Tech by 7, Arizona by 8, and Tennessee by 18, all seeded beneath them. They do have one achillies-heel. They shoot just 61% from the line, which may make it difficult here to blow-out N. Texas. N. Texas can score with Memphis, as the average in the upper 70s. They have a very deep team, and lots of 3pt. shooters, where they connect on 37+%. They can also defend, as they have held opponents to 41.7% shooting. We like teams that can score, getting a bundle of points, especially when the favorite can't knock down FT's.

Notre Dame came out of nowhere to have a very good season, finishing with 24 wins. The Irish possess a balanced team, sporting 5 double digit scorers. That is not their lone asset, as they shoot nearly 40% from 3, and hold opponents to low 40s shooting. The one weakness this team possesses is when the shots are not dropping, they seem to struggle all the way around, and lose to teams far below what they are talent-wise. That is evident in losses to both St. John's and S. Fla. Winthrop took Tennessee to the buzzer last season, before dropping a 2 point decision. There is a vast difference between this Winthrop team, and that one. Last year's team was very good, but quite experienced enough to play with the big boys, and even had 3 losses in a rather weak conference. This season, they are experienced, and much better. They lost no games in the conf., and have won 18 in a row, and gained the experience from the tournament last year, and big games in hostile gyms this season, against bigtime opponents. Wisconsin finished 22-0 at home this season. Their biggest scare was Winthrop. Winthrop had a shot to win that one in regulation, but missed a shot to end the game. They fell in OT by just 3. Then they went to #1 seed NC, and led for most of the game on the Heels home-court, before bowing by just 7. They have the moxie to play #1 and #2 seeds on their own court, and almost win. That tells us this team can win anywhere, and we will back them in this one.

This is an interesting match-up. These teams will garner the mid-major label, but both have proven over the years, they can go toe-to-toe with the power conferences. This Nevada team may be the best so-called mid-major, rivaling the great Gonzaga teams over the past several years. They have everything, including an All-American. Creighton has had a good season, but this isn't a vintage Creighton team. The evidence is in their play on the road. They lost to Nebraska,Dayton,Fresno,Hawaii,Ind St,Ill St., and Wichita St. That is 7 losses to teams not even in this tournament. We are not concerned with Nevada's loss to Utah St. in the finals of their own tournament, as their PG sat out with a hamstring injury, and will be ready for tonight's game. This team was 12-2 on the road, so they are experienced, and can win anywhere. Not as close as it looks.

Wisconsin has had yet another banner season, and looks to go deep into the NCAA tourney. What we have noticed about this team is one vulnerability. They have struggled against teams that can hit the 3, and it often puts them on the ropes, because they are more of a defensive team, than a team that generates points in a hurry. They lost early on to Missouri St. when Ahern hit 60% from beyond the arc. They needed OT at home vs Winthrop, when Martin hit 7 three's. They lost to Indiana when ratliff hit 67% of his 3's. They lost to Michigan St. when Neitzel hit 6 three's. That could present quite the challenge, as Texas A&M CC is loaded with shooters. This team shot 52% for the season, and 40% from beyond the arc. It is the exact type of team that can present a challenge for Wisconsin. Wisconsin defends the lane well, and does a good job in the buuly-type play in the BIG-10. The difference is, they struggle against free-wheeling offensive minded teams, that can line 3-4 guys up from outside, and negate their inside strength. If Texas A&M CC can get the 3 pointers rolling this game will get very interesting down the wire, we like the points here.

Miami,O. is not supposed to be here, but their win over Akron puts them on the big stage. Oregon put the icing on the cake of a good season by winning the Pac-10 conference tourney. This is not a good draw for Oregon however. Oregon loves to push the ball up and down the court, and is often frustrated by teams that like to play methodically. They will meet the master's of just that in Miami,O. It is hard to give this team a lot of points, because they shorten games every single time. They have been a dog of 6.5+ only 5 times with 4 covers in those games. Oregon in their last 9 games where they failed to reach 70 points is just 2-7 ATS. That spells bad news for the Ducks. Miami,O. has allowed not a single team to get to 70 the entire season! They shoot 46% so they are not a bad team offensively, they just play 40 minutes of half-court basketball. They pride themselves at the defensive end as well, holding opponents to 40.6% shooting, and 32% from 3. Too many points in a game that will frustrate Oregon.

Arkansas expended a lot of energy trying to make the dance, and it took them 3 wins in the SEC conference tourney to find a way in. USC has been one of the best defending teams in the country holding opponents to 39% shooting. Arkansas is not a great offensive team to begin with as they shoot in the 44% range. That 4 games in 4 days took its toll on Arkansas. They shot progressively poorer as the tourney went on. They went from 47,46,43, to 36, and it may show itself in the 2nd half in this one vs a team that defends with the best of them. We exect a close game early, with USC pulling away in the last 10 minutes.