College Tournament Basketball Picks - March 15, 2008
We went 2-1 yesterday for +2.5 units. Today we have four games.
Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:
Game: Hartford at U M B C (12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Hartford +335 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 6.7)
Hartford? UMBC? Who the heck are they? Exactly. We think there's value on this game, in part due to the lack of attention to this America East Conference title game. We think the dog has a good shot at the upset here, and a birth to the NCAA Tournament. Hartford has rolled through the tournament so far, knocking off New Hampshire and Boston University, setting an AEC record with 18 Division I wins. Hartford is hitting 44.7% from the field this year and 37.9% from beyond the arc, putting up 71 ppg. This is a road game for them but they actually scored more away from home than they did at home this season. So they can keep up with the potent UMBC offense. And, Hartford is playing better defense right now. Last game they held Boston to 33.9% from the field and 3-for-20 from beyond the arc. This team beat UMBC earlier this month and we think they can do it again.
Game: Michigan State vs. Wisconsin (1:40 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Wisconsin -3 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Michigan State has not fared well against Wisconsin, losing by 15 this season and dropping a pair of games last year, including a double-digit loss in this very same Big-10 Tournament. Wisconsin swept the entire Big-10 schedule this season, outside of two setbacks to Purdue, which matches up favorably with them. Along the way Wisconsin beat 12 teams by double-digits, and does it with a 40 minute defensive effort that has them #3 in FG percentage defense. Michigan State does not match-up well here, and will have defenders in their face all game long, and the eventuality of it all will be offensive frustration, which is what carries the Spartans. We like Wisconsin here to come away with a comfortable win.
Game: Stanford vs. U C L A (6:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on U C L A -3.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
#11 vs. #3 in what should be a great game at the Staples Center (advantage UCLA). The last time they met, UCLA won by 10 in overtime. UCLA won't have Luc Richard Mbah a Moute here but we still like them to win again, and cover. UCLA seems to be on a mission, having won nine in a row and 30 out of 33 this season. They've had some close, controversial wins, but the fact is things are going their way. We don't hold that against them - we give them credit. UCLA has lost one road game this eason while Stanford has lost five. The Bruins' defense is much better and that will be the difference here. The Bruins are 9-2 ATS this season in games with a total under 130. THey are also 22-11 ATS the past three seasons on teh road vs. conference opponents and 10-1 ATS this season after an ATS loss.
Game: Pittsburgh at Georgetown (9:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Georgetown -5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Hoyas are finally playing up to their potential against good teams. They have two blowout wins and a third is expected tonight. This will be the 4th game in four days for Pittsburgh, and last year it showed when they lost to the Hoyas by over 20 in the Big East Championship game. They shot just 26% in that game, and 17.6% from beyond the arc. Pitt has had key players average 37+ minutes with the OT game vs Louisville. We expect them to show it here in the second half against a Georgetown team that is hitting its stride, and has never lost in this tournament as a #1 seed.
NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-14-2008
The Buckeyes played in the National Championship game last season. Now they are fighting for a birth to into the tournament. They beat the Spartans on Sunday by 9 points but that was a home game for t...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-13-2008
We had to ponder some numbers regarding Georgetown. Why does a team that shoots 48.3% and 37.1% from three-point range, as well as the best FG percentage defense in the country at 36.4% (and just 29.1...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-12-2008
Saint Louis has sure put up some ugly numbers this season, none worse than their 14% shooting, 20-point effort against George Washington. Their last two games have been almost equally ugly, falling by...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-11-2008
These teams are about as even as it gets. Especially since Indiana-Purdue won by three points at home then and lost at Oral Roberts by one. There is one big difference. Caleb Green was the best player...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-10-2008
Yes, this is a home game for San Diego. But, it won't matter. The Toreros upset St. Mary's last night to advance to this title game. After a blowout win over Pepperdine and last night's wi...
