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Game: Old Dominion vs. Butler (2:50 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Game Total UNDER 123 -110

One thing for sure, Butler was a tired team going down the stretch, and it showed. They have had over a week to get their legs back, and get back to what made them special early on when they beat four straight tournament teams in Notre Dame, Tennessee, Indiana, and Gonzaga. The one thing they do well is defend the court. They held a high-scoring Tennessee team to 44 points, and Indiana to 55. That is the defensive team that will take the court here. They have held 24 teams in the 50s, and offense is not their strong suit, as they shoot in the low 40s. Old Dominion was on a serious roll until George Mason derailed them in the CAA tourney. Old Dominion is similar to Bultler. They defend very well, but shoot under 42% as a team on the road. They have kept 15 teams from getting out of the 50s. This game looks like a game that will play ugly - that is just how these teams play. Points will be precious, and shots will be taken deep into the shot clock. This should play in the 50s at best, and we will ride the UNDER here.

Georgetown certainly has that look of a team that could cut down the nets at the end of this tournament. Some teams have found this first tournament game difficult that were in the same situation last year. UConn comes to mind, as they struggled. Belmont has really played their best basketball of the year in their last seven games. They had beaten seven opponents by 15+ points during the season, but added seven more to that total, all over their last seven games. They have perhaps the deepest team in the tournament, as they play 10 players double-digit minutes, and only one player logs over 30 minutes a game. Both of these teams are great defenders. Georgetown is limiting opponents to 38.3% shooting, and Belmont limits opponents to a nearly identical 38.7%. We are sure of one thing and that is Belmont has looked at the film from the Syracuse vs. Georgetown game many times over. They will employ a zone, just as Syracuse does, to limit penetration, and take Hibbert out of the game. Syracuse is the only team that beat Georgetown in their last 14 games. Their zone frustrated Georgetown, and they ended up shooting 25 three-point shots. They shot just 29.8% for the game. Last year Georgetown also lost to Syracuse in the Big East finals. The Belmont zone will be the key to the game. This will slow the game down, and take away the speed and athletic edge that Georgetown has, and keep Belmont them in the game. Belmont played at Michigan State early on, and they have improved since then by leaps and bounds. They led that game into the second half on Michigan St.'s home-court. Belmont is careful with the ball, and has only turned it over 11 times or less in 5 of their last 8 games, while Georgetown has forced just 24 turnovers over their last three. Belmont is experienced, and was in the tournament last year, so the novelty is gone, and they will be better prepared. We also like the UNDER in this one as Georgetown has played under in 23 of their last 31 neutral-court games, and has been 10-1 UNDER in first-round NCAA tournament games in their last 11 appearances.

It seems like year after year we are seeing Penn or Princeton here from the Ivy League. Penn seems to have taken over for now. Penn has not fared well with past teams in the NCAA tournament, but now they have a veteran class with experience from last year. They drew another Texas team last year, and more than held their own. The numbers from that game would make you think it was a complete blowout. Penn shot 32% and hit just 61% from the line. Texas shot 40% and 86% from the line. Texas destroyed them on the boards 38-18! All that said, Penn led at the half, and was down by one point and had the ball with 5:53 left in the game. Rick Barnes said after the game. "We had a team here that was going to shorten the game, and I'm just glad we will play again." There were just 98 shots taken in the game, and expect the same here. This is a ton of points for a game that ends up with 100 shots or less, and this is a better version of last year's team. They have 3 of the top 4 scorers back from that game, and 123 minutes from that team returns. Penn hangs tough in this one.

Vanderbilt is one of those dark horse teams that when they have it going, they can beat anyone in the country, just ask Florida. They have five players that all can shoot the three-point shot with accuracy, and when they get it going, they are impossible to defend. This may be a moment for them to get that momentum going again, and make a run here. George Washington - we just aren't sold on. They were likely lucky that Xavier got bounced from the A-10 tourney, because it is doubtful they'd be here otherwise. Taking a look at the few games they had against top competition, they fell flat, and came up short. George Washington lost to Providence, who is not even in the tournament by 19 points, Air Force by 14 (also not in tournament), Xavier by 29, USC by nine, and UMASS by seven points. They have beaten a lot of bad teams, or teams that are respectful within the A-10, but not outside it. Look for Vandy to win this one.

Ohio State is expected to make the Final Four, and to be one of a handful of teams that cuts down the nets. Sometimes these teams have difficulty in the first round, against a no-name opponent. All the pieces are in place to make that run. The one bothersome thing from this team is they seem to go in lapses offensively, and if the opponent isn't a familiar name they may experience some of that here. Howie Dickenman is no stranger to the NCAA tournament, as he was an assistant under Jim Calhoun at UConn. His teams are tough, disciplined, and play with energy. This will be his third trip to the dance with Central. They do have three scorers in Mojica, Blackwell, and Nwadike. Central was horrible at the beginning of the year, and suddenly the light went on, and went on to finish with 17 wins in their last 18 games. Ohio St. has played 15 games now to close the season with the biggest winning margin 21 points. They don't seem to be the kind of team that really goes out to lay a team out. Central won't win this one, but they will certainly fight hard enough to keep this respectful.

It is hard to explain what happened to UCLA down the stretch. They lost no games to teams that aren’t in the tournament, and suddenly they lose convincingly to Washington, and then enter the Pac-10 Tournament, and lose to California, falling down by 12 points at the half. A big concern has to be the shooting slump of Arron Afflalo. He was just 1-7 vs. Cal. and 0-5 from three-point range, and had just three points in 38 minutes. The prior game against Washington he was just 4-14 and 3-10 from three-point range and combined in both games to be 2-6 from the free-throw line. The Bruins won't go far without him, and his confidence seems way down. Weber State has been a tourney spoiler in the past. They knocked off a very good Carolina team in 1999, and this team has some weapons. Dezmon Harris hits 40.6%, Tyler Billings off the bench hits 53%, and Juan Silverio 46.2% and all are excellent from beyond the arc. If the three pointers are going down, and Afflalo is struggling, this game could get interesting. Weber St. also has the Big Sky MVP in David Patten, who can take over a game. Lots of weapons, and we will take the 20+ points here with a team that can shoot their way into late excitement in this one.