Free Ncaa Basketball Pick - March 14, 2010

With Selection Sunday on tap, we warm up with some Conference Championship picks. We took another winnng day in college hoops yesterday as we finished 5-2. Today we roll out five premium picks on this the final day of the conference championships.

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Richmond vs. Temple (1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Richmond +4.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Richmond beat Temple by 17 points last time they met. Now they are getting points. Yes, you can argue for revenge motivation, and Temple is very good. But the fact remains that Richmond knows they can win this game and won't be intimidated. Temple is not invincible has they have lost four games on the road, only two less than Richmond. The Spiders are 12-5 ATS on the road and their offense right now is hot. Temple's offense has been weak all season on the road, averaging just 63.9 per game. When facing winning teams this season, the Spiders are 14-6 ATS. Over the past two seasons, they are 8-1 ATS vs. top-level teams (those at .800 or better). As a dog this season they are 8-2 ATS. I like the underdog here.

Duke is great. They have a legitimate shot at winning that "big" tournament that starts on Thursday. But covering 9 points today in the ACC Championship is asking a lot. Duke has won 11 of their last 12 basketball games. But in those games they have just five ATS wins. In their last eight games, they own just two. That's a sign of a "public" team that is overrated when it comes to the spread. Tech has the offense to keep up with Duke enough here. The Yellow Jackets are 8-1 ATS this season vs. high-scoring teams (those that average 77+ ppg). The Blue Devils beat Georgia Tech by 19 points in February but that's a good thing as Tech is 10-2 ATS dating back to last season on the road revenging a loss. In the Paul Hewitt era, they are 23-11 ATS revenging a double-digit road loss. And, as good as Kryzewski is, his Blue Devils are just 34-58 ATS in March games. Take Georgia Tech here.

The Bulldogs need a good showing here if they want to ensure a trip to the Dance. There is no doubt who the better team is here, but Mississippi State has got to be more motivated and they will be fighting and clawing all game. They perform well against winning teams as they have gone 29-17 ATS the past two seasons vs. winning teams and 15-3 ATS vs. teams that score 77+ points per game. In addition to the NCAA Tournament motivation, the Bulldogs are playing for revenge here as they lost last time out to the Wildcats. Mississippi State is 8-1 ATS the past two seasons on the road revenging a loss. They are off a great defensive effort, holding Vandy to just 52 points. That bodes well also as the Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS this season after a game in which they allowed 60 or fewer points. I'm taking Miss State here. I also like the UNDER. The Bulldogs have gone UNDER in 12 of 17 road games this season and the Wildcats have gone UNDER in eight of fourteen. These two teams play great defense with each averaging 63.8 per game allowed on the road. When facing good teams (those outscoring opponents by 4+ ppg), Kentucky is 13-5 UNDER this season. In neutral-court games, Mississippi State is 11-3 UNDER over the past couple of seasons. Take the Bulldogs and the UNDER here.

These teams have taken very different paths to get to this game. Minnesota has already handled the second and third seeds in this tournament. Why not the #1 seed? Ohio State has struggled to make it to this game. They needed a hail mary buzzer beater to beat Michigan and double-overtime to dispatch of Illinois. Their confidence can't be peaking right now. But Minnesota's has to be sky-high. The Gophers have won four straight SU and ATS with the last game the most impressive as they beat Purdue by 27 points as an underdog. Over their last nine games this team has gone 8-1 ATS. Now that's peaking. Ohio State has been great at home this season (17-1) but on the road they have lost six games and they own an under-.500 ATS mark. Minnesota is at their best after a big win, going 9-2 ATS after a 15+ point win.

Results: 3-2

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Don't forget to read our college basketball free picks here.
• Don't forget to visit our college basketball prior predictions .
• Read our march madness brackets here.
• Check out our updated college basketball handicapping philosophy.
• Don't forget to visit our college basketball odds and lines.
• Updated today: blog NCAA basketball picks.
• View our updated NCAA basketball sportsbook reviews.
• Don't forget to visit our NCAA basketball Game-of-Day Analysis.
• Take a look at our ncaa march madness picks here.
• View 2009 college basketball picks results here.
• View our updated 2009 college basketball handicapping preivew.
• Don't forget to visit our NCAA basketball ATS records .

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-13-2010
The Kentucky Wildcats have lost just two games this season and one was to the Tennessee Volunteers, so they won't be intimidated here. Along the way the Wildcats had several close calls, and altho...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-12-2010
The Duke Blue Devils are a huge favorite in this one, and I don't think they will be going with starters deep into the second half with a likely three straight games in three days. It is has been ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-11-2010
The Hurricanes have been held to the 60s or less in 10 ACC games, and aren't a team that likes to get out and run, but would rather work in the half-court. After touching 70 in 13 of their first 1...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-10-2010
The Houston Cougars certainly draw attention from oddsmakers as they like to run up and down the floor. The problem is this team carries totals it can't achieve and, despite the big offense, the u...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-09-2010
Bethune Cookman is barely over .500, and Florida A & M well below. Regardless of the outcome here the winner is playing in the play-in game come tournament time. Bethune Cookman, for those that do...