March Madness Pick - March 14, 2008
We suffered a 1-4 day yesterday, hitting with a moneyline dog but missing the rest. Today we have three picks...
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Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:
Game: Ohio State vs. Michigan State (2:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Michigan State -4.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Buckeyes played in the National Championship game last season. Now they are fighting for a birth to into the tournament. They beat the Spartans on Sunday by 9 points but that was a home game for the Buckeyes where they were superb at 14-3 this season. This in contrast is a road game for them where they were just 5-9 this season. And, Michigan State is the better team, now with revenge motivation. Under Tom Izzo, the Spartans are 19-9 ATS revenging a same-season loss and we think they win and cover this game.
Game: Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas (3:15 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Arkansas -1 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Vanderbilt advanced here with an 11-point win vs Auburn, needing a stellar performance from A.J. Ogilvy as he connected on 12 of 13 shots. Shane Foster connected on six of nine from three as well. Arkansas has a good defense, much better than Vanderbilt's, allowing 41% on the season, and they are consistent all over the court. The key to their win vs Vandy was not stopping Ogilvy or Foster who had 22 and 20 respectively, but stopping everyone else. The Razorbacks limited all other Vandy players to 10-for-35 shooting. It has been the key all season for Arkansas as they play hard for 40 minutes, have no weaknesses, and are a well balanced team. Vandy has not posted a win vs the top of the conference on the road in SEC play all season, and we don't expect that to change here.
Game: Miami Ohio vs. Kent State (9:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Miami Ohio +160 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 4.8)
Can #5 really beat #1? We think so! The Redhawks thrive in the MAC tournament with a 33-22 lifetime mark and a title last year. This year they ahve posted wins over Buffalo and Ohio to advance here. They are playing great defense, a key for us in predicting an upset win. They held Ohio to 37.9% from the floor last game. Over their last five games, they have held opponents on average to just 36.4% from the field and 57.4 ppg! During that run, their offense, bad for most of the season, has improved tremendously as they averaged 66 ppg. The Redhawks are 10-2 straight-up the past two seasons vs. slow-down teams like Kent (those averaging under 53 shots per game). They are also 7-2 SU in their last nine facing a team over .800 after the mid-way point in the season. Miami is also 7-3 this season when the total is under 120. This is anyone's game and we like the underdog, especially at 1.6 to 1 odds.
Results: 2-1
NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-13-2008
We had to ponder some numbers regarding Georgetown. Why does a team that shoots 48.3% and 37.1% from three-point range, as well as the best FG percentage defense in the country at 36.4% (and just 29.1...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-12-2008
Saint Louis has sure put up some ugly numbers this season, none worse than their 14% shooting, 20-point effort against George Washington. Their last two games have been almost equally ugly, falling by...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-11-2008
These teams are about as even as it gets. Especially since Indiana-Purdue won by three points at home then and lost at Oral Roberts by one. There is one big difference. Caleb Green was the best player...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-10-2008
Yes, this is a home game for San Diego. But, it won't matter. The Toreros upset St. Mary's last night to advance to this title game. After a blowout win over Pepperdine and last night's wi...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-09-2008
Florida has the record at 21-9, but where have the wins come from? The Gators are 18-1 vs teams with an RPI of over 100! They are 3-9 vs the top 100. The Gators are also 2-7 ATS in their last nine. Wi...
