College Tournament Basketball Picks - March 13, 2009

We had two regulation-time UNDERS fall in overtime yesterday as we experienced some college hoops frustration. Overall, we snatched failure from the jaws of victory as a 4-3 winning day quickly dissolved into a 2-5 losing one, thanks to the overtimes. Oh well, sometimes those are the breaks - especially in March. So, it is with a bitter taste in our mouths that we mount our comeback today with three more premium CBB plays.

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Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Cal Santa Barbara at U C Northridge (8:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 135 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

UC Santa Barbara is off a big finish in Big West play, as they closed the season on a 7-1 run and made that 8-1 with their win last night over Fullerton. The defensive effort has made the difference as they have allowed just 62.1 points per game in their last seven in conference play. It also showed up the last time these two teams met as the total points scored were held shy of 120. Santa Barbara has been even more defensive when the game moves to a neutral-court site, as they have played to the UNDER in nine of their last 10, while Northridge has played their last four at neutral sites to the UNDER as well. This one will be a tight defensive struggle, and I'll play it to finish UNDER the posted total.

Duke has been an exceptional home team for years under Coach K, and the best Duke teams have been very good on the road as well. This is a Duke team that is a notch below the teams Coach K has put on the floor over the last 15 years or so. The Dukies actually have a negative scoring margin on the road in the ACC this season and just a 4-4 overall record. They only beat the teams at the bottom of the conference on the road by 10+. Boston College owns a win over Duke this season, so there certainly won't be any intimidation factor at work here. The Eagles have proven that they can play with the best as they not only have a win over Duke they have one over North Carolina as well. Boston College has fared well over the years in neutral-site games posting a 21-8 ATS record in their last 29. This year's team is no exception, having gone 3-0 ATS. The Eagles have also fared well against the Blue Devils going 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. This line is a high "reputation" line, offering value on the Eagles and I'll ride with them in this one.

There is a little deception at work in the total here as these teams fought out an 81-80 decision the last time they met, but it wasn't as high-scoring as it looked. The game went to OT where 31 points were scored. Pacific has played some sticky defense all season featuring five of their last eight opponents failing to score over 58 points, and seven of their last eight games going under the total. That also includes 7-0 to the UNDER in conference games. These tournament games have a tendency to play conservative and more defensive, and I like this one to go UNDER the total.

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Read our 2008 season NCAA basketball gambling preview here.
• View our updated college basketball sportsbook.
• Don't forget to read our 2008 NCAA basketball picks season results here.
• Take a look at our NCAA basketball gambling philosophy here.
• Take a look at our NCAA basketball Game-of-Day Analysis here.
• Updated today: blog college basketball.
• Don't forget to visit our NCAA basketball predictions.
• Here we show our NCAA basketball odds.
• Don't forget to read our march madness bracket here.
• Take a look at our college basketball against-the-spread standings here.
• Read our march madness pick here.
• Check out our updated NCAA basketball record.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-12-2009
The Ball State Cardinals are a slow-paced team that relies on defense to keep them in games. They have played 11 conference games where the opponent has not gotten out of the 40s and 50s, and they hav...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-11-2009
The Golden Knights didn't close the season in conference play the way they would have liked, but have been an over-achieving team playing above the line. They closed the Conference USA slate with ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-10-2009
The Georgetown Hoyas slipped during the middle part of the season, and it has left them at 16-13. They are still alive in many bracketologist’s eyes for an at-large tourney bid based on the fact...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-09-2009
Looking at this Colonial Conference Tournament, it has been a defensive struggle in just about each and every game, with nine of the 10 games finishing under the total thus far. That isn't much of...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-08-2009
Arkansas is 2-13 this season in SEC play and they are 2-8 on the road. Their defense allows 78 points per game on the road while Vanderbilt holds foes to 63 points per game at home - that's a mass...