Ncaapicks - March 13, 2008

We went 4-1 last night for +8.8 units. Today we have five picks including two 4-unit plays and a 5-unit game!

Get ready for the Wunderdog "Lucky 7" March Madness Contest! It's your chance to win your share of over $1,000 in prizes. Details coming soon.

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Villanova vs. Georgetown (12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Villanova +6 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)

We had to ponder some numbers regarding Georgetown. Why does a team that shoots 48.3% and 37.1% from three-point range, as well as the best FG percentage defense in the country at 36.4% (and just 29.1% from beyond the arc) struggle against good teams? We have the answer, and along with it, why there is value on Villanova today. Georgetown has dominated the bottom of the conference winning virtually every game by double-digits. It has been a completely different story against the top nine teams, those that are on the bubble, or NCAA tournament teams. All eight games against the bottom resulted in double-digit wins. Their 10 against the top nine have resulted in one double-digit win, three losses, and six wins all decided by three points or less. This is why. They average three more turnovers per game, they are sending the opponent to the line eight more times per game, and they are giving up four more offensive rebounds per game. They have committed more turnovers than these opponents in nine straight games, sent the opponent to the FT line in seven straight for more attempts (10 on average), and have given up 5.4 more offensive rebounds per game in the last eight. That means 10 free throws at an average of 70% is seven points lost, which means that three more possessions at a conversion rate of 40% is 2.4 points and 5.4 more offensive rebounds at a conversion rate of 40% is 4.3 points a game. The Hoyas are spotting opponents 13.7 points a game! These teams also shoot better than what they allow on the season. The bottom line is Villanova is fighting to get over the bubble and Georgetown finds a way to win these games, but not by this size margin. Value on Nova.

Two teams that finished the season at opposite ends of the spectrum meet here. The Gamecocks have regressed during the season, closing with a 2-7 mark which included a 7 point loss at home to LSU. The Bayou Bengals have come together late, closing with a 6-4 mark, after starting conference play 0-5. LSU has improved ahead of the odds-makers realization, covering nine of last 11 after opening 2-12 ATS. The difference is the offense coming together, going from 63 ppg in first eight games to 71 ppg in last eight. Look for the Tigers to stay hot, and put an end to the Gamecocks season.

Richmond has the higher seed but is getting 8 points. Hmmm. We actually like the Spiders' chances to get the win here. St. Joes' is off an easy opening round win, but let's not forget this team closed the season losing six of their last nine games. Richmond is a team that can force a lot of mistakes as they averaged 16.6 forced turnovers per game and 8.4 steals per game. The Hawks are just 12-23 the past two seasons vs. winning teams and they have struggled with slow-down teams like Richmond, going 6-8 vs. teams that average under 54 shots per game over that span. Richmond has won five of their last seven games vs. winning teams this season including a 4-2 mark vs. teams at 60%+. They are also 4-1 vs. teams that shoot well like Joes. We see this game close at the end and while we see value on Richmond plus the points, we give them a very legitimate shot at winning so we'll back them on the moneyline.

Florida has won this tournament the past three years. But, we see them making an early exit today, ending their hopes of making it to the big Dance. Florida beat Bama back in January and revenge is sweet. Alabama's Richard Hendrix is fourth in the conference in scoring and leads it in rebounding. Alonzo Gee and Mykal Riley round make it three players averaging double-digit scoring. If these three are on, the Gators won't win this game. Florida is very young and the later it gets in the season, the more the pressure will build on these players. Alabama can shoot, hitting 46% from the field. Florida has really struggled against such teams this season as they are 4-9 straight-up vs. teams hitting over 45%. Kentucky put up 75 on the Gators last game and Tennessee lit them up for 89 the game prior. We like the Tide's chances here and will back them for a moneyline win.

After a 2-1 hopeful start in SEC play, Georgia has fallen flat. They finished conference play at 2-11. They shoot just 42% and find it hard to score, going through extensive droughts. A true measure of these teams was seen as SEC play came to a close when the Bulldogs, home-court and all, lost to the Rebels by 14. Ole Miss started strong, endured a mid-season slump, and has now won three straight. This is a team that doesn't have trouble scoring, averaging close to 80 per game, and at some point during this game the Bulldogs will go cold, and Ole Miss will put a decisive run on them, keeping their NCAA tourney hopes alive.

Results: 1-4

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Check out our updated college basketball betting.
• Check out our updated betting college basketball.
• View ncaa march madness here.
• Check out our updated 2007 college basketball preivew.
• View college basketball Game-of-Day Analysis here.
• Check out our updated 2007 college basketball prior pick results.
• Read our march madness bracket here.
• Take a look at our NCAA basketball ATS records here.
• Don't forget to read our blog NCAA basketball picks here.
• Check out college basketball free picks here.
• Read our NCAA basketball picks here.
• View NCAA basketball odds here.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-12-2008
Saint Louis has sure put up some ugly numbers this season, none worse than their 14% shooting, 20-point effort against George Washington. Their last two games have been almost equally ugly, falling by...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-11-2008
These teams are about as even as it gets. Especially since Indiana-Purdue won by three points at home then and lost at Oral Roberts by one. There is one big difference. Caleb Green was the best player...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-10-2008
Yes, this is a home game for San Diego. But, it won't matter. The Toreros upset St. Mary's last night to advance to this title game. After a blowout win over Pepperdine and last night's wi...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-09-2008
Florida has the record at 21-9, but where have the wins come from? The Gators are 18-1 vs teams with an RPI of over 100! They are 3-9 vs the top 100. The Gators are also 2-7 ATS in their last nine. Wi...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-08-2008
The Mildcats haven't done much purring in Big Ten play. They have been beaten at home by double-digits in six of eight conference games, and have basically been non-competitive. The Badgers h...