We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Toledo at Florida State (6:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Toledo +11.5

Toledo finished the season on a 15-4 run, and was much improved as the year progressed. That may catch Florida State off-guard because even back at the beginning of the season Toledo went on the road and stayed within 10 points of Kansas, winth five points of both Vanderbilt and Drexel, and beat VCU. Florida St. felt they should be in the NCAA Tournament, as yes they did have a bunch of loses, but none were to a team below 55 in the RPI. It will be interesting to see if they even show up here tonight. Toledo is not going to be the type of school to inspire a home team, and that could spell trouble tonight, and the points look good.

Michigan is making a habit of finding their way into the NIT. Things looked like they were about to change. They opened 14-3 and 2-0 in the Big 10, but then the wheels fell off. It is easy to understand why they did not get an NCAA bid. They have won just five games since Jan. 20, and three of those wins were against Minnesota. What else need be said? Utah St. is one of the best coached teams in the country, and you can be sure they will come prepared to play. This team not only knocked off Nevada, they knocked them off twice. They also won at Oral Roberts, so this team can play. Michigan has trouble scoring, but defends well, and in a game where points will be at a premium we like them here.

Delaware State has allowed just 54-points a game over their last 13. To be getting 17 points is an awful lot in a game that figures to be shortened by the tempo of Delaware State. West Virginia is a team that just peaked too early. W. Virginia won 13 of their first 14 games and has since gone 9-8. Not sure how much inspiration Delaware St. will provide to a team like W. Virginia that has earned an NCAA pedigree the past few years. We don't expect Delaware St. to win this one, but slow things down enough, to make 17 points a huge number to crack.

Niagara has been hot, and winners of 11 games in a row. They had just three true road games within those 11 games, and the wins were by 4, 2 and by 1 point. They have struggled away from home. Overall, 12 of their last 17 games have been tighter than this line. Florida A&M isn't exactly cold coming into this game. They have now won 7 of 8. There are two motivational factors here that can't be overlooked: Niagara is disappointed to be playing in this game. The second factor is a biggie - Florida A&M has five members on its team that are from Chicago. The winner of this game will go on to Chicago! That means this team is going to be highly motivated to get home, so to speak, and we believe this game will be very close.

North Carolina Sate made a valiant run through the ACC Tournament and came up a bit short against North Carolina. This will mark the fifth game in six days for NC State., a team that only goes seven-players deep. It isn't only the physical nature of this game, it’s the emotional as well. NC State was sky-high for four straight days, and now have to travel immediately, to play on the road against a very good Drexel team. NC State has four starters that have averaged 37, 37, 35 and 35 minutes a game for four straight days, must travel, and do it again. Drexel has beaten Villanova and Syracuse on the road, has won at St. Joseph’s, and at Temple. This is a team with a chip on its shoulder, and they will be catching NC State drained mentally, and physically.