Ncaa Final Four - March 12, 2010

Hey guys - we're sorry for the abbreviated write-ups today, but we have a ton of action and need to strike while the iron is hot! 

We posted our fourth consecutive winning night on the college hoops floor as we finished 7-4 last night. Over the last four days, we are 18-12 for 60% and +17 units.

Today we press on in the conference championships with nine picks including a complimentary selection below.

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Virginia vs. Duke (12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 127 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)

The Duke Blue Devils are a huge favorite in this one, and I don't think they will be going with starters deep into the second half with a likely three straight games in three days. It is has been tough to score on Duke with six of their last eight opponents not able to get out of the 50s. The Cavaliers really slow things down against the very good teams, leading them to seven straight UNDERs when posted as a dog of 13 or more. All indicators point to a short, low-scoring game, so I'm going with the UNDER in this one where Duke is also 28-11 in their last 39 in conference play.

The Wolverines have stepped up their defense big time. In their last five games they have held three opponents to 55 or less, giving up 58.2 on average over the five games. That's good for them as their offense has fallen. They have managed just 56 points per game over that stretch. The bottom line is that games for this team recently have struggled to reach 110 points. It's a reason their conference games have gone 13-5 UNDER this season. Ohio State has gone 11-6 UNDER in conference games, holding foes to just 60.5 points per game. This one has UNDER written all over it.

‘Bama is 16-9 UNDER this season including 9-6 UNDER in conference games. Kentucky is 7-5 UNDER on the road and 4-1 UNDER in their last five. Against teams that outscore their opponents by 4+ per game, the Wildcats are 12-4 UNDER this season. Take the UNDER here.

Miami, Fla. put up more points vs. Wake Forest than in any ACC game they played this season, and it has put a little extra in the total posted here for this one. This is not a high-scoring team, and their 12 ACC games playing in the 50s and 60s offensively are a true indication of that. Hokies with 100+ in an overtime game, and an 88 late, are looking offensive, but that is not this team's calling either. Half their last eight opponents, without an overtime game, have not gotten out of the 50s, and six of their last eight as a favorite have failed to reach the total. I'll go with the UNDER here.

The Volunteers are 16-7 UNDER this year including 11-5 UNDER when facing a conference opponent. They are also 12-4 UNDER vs. winning teams and 12-5 UNDER as a favorite. Over the past two seasons, Ole Miss is 13-5 UNDER on the road following a win. Take the UNDER.

Yes, Lehigh is 14-2 at home while Lafayette is just 6-9 on the road. But, both of these teams are 4-1 in their last five games, and this spread is just too high. Against common opponents, these teams have nearly identical records this season (12-5 vs. 13-4). There's just not that much separation here and Lafayette is playing their best ball of the season. I like the dog here.

Houston is 15-9 UNDER this season including 8-4 UNDER on the road. Their recent games have been higher scoring, but they face a great defense and very low-scoring team here in Southern Miss. S. Miss' conference games this year are 12-5 UNDER, averaging a total of just 118 points per game. They are 16-4 UNDER in their last 20 road games when facing a team that shoots 42% or worse from the field. They are also a perfect 7-0 UNDER after allowing 50 points or less. Take the UNDER here.

The Dayton Flyers have simply not been the same team away from their home court, where they have not won a game since the end of January. Their last two performances shows the reason why as the Flyers combined score in the two games is less than 100 points at the offensive end. The Flyers are also 11-5 after a win to the UNDER as well as playing under in five of their last seven as a dog. Xavier certainly has the pedigree of playing low at a neutral site with 10 of their last 11 neutral site games failing to get to the total. Dayton is 8-5 UNDER this season on the road, holding opponents to just 64.1 points per game. Over their last five games, opponents have managed just 61.6 per game. Yes, Xavier can score, but on the road they aren't that great offensively. In tournament games, Xavier is 9-2 UNDER the past two seasons. Go UNDER here.

The Hoyas are 8-5 UNDER on the road this season and 4-1 UNDER in their last five games as the intensity has picked up. They have allowed 63 per game in their last five while Marquette has allowed 62 per game in their last five, also going 4-1 UNDER in the process. Marquette is also 12-6 UNDER in conference games this year. They are coming off an over and that's a good thing as they are 7-1 UNDER this season when coming off an OVER. Take the UNDER here.

Results: 1-7

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Don't forget to read our free NCAA basketball predictions here.
• Updated today: NCAA basketball prior picks.
• Check out march madness brackets here.
• Read our betting NCAA basketball here.
• Here we show our college basketball odds and lines.
• Here we show our NCAA basketball picks blog.
• View our sports betting NCAA basketball here.
• View our updated NCAA basketball Game Preview.
• View our march madness picks here.
• Updated today: 2009 college basketball prior picks season results.
• Hop over to our 2009 season NCAA basketball betting preview here.
• Read our college basketball ATS recrds here.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-11-2010
The Hurricanes have been held to the 60s or less in 10 ACC games, and aren't a team that likes to get out and run, but would rather work in the half-court. After touching 70 in 13 of their first 1...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-10-2010
The Houston Cougars certainly draw attention from oddsmakers as they like to run up and down the floor. The problem is this team carries totals it can't achieve and, despite the big offense, the u...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-09-2010
Bethune Cookman is barely over .500, and Florida A & M well below. Regardless of the outcome here the winner is playing in the play-in game come tournament time. Bethune Cookman, for those that do...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-08-2010
The Siena Saints have been the kingpin in the MAAC for the past three years, and they are playing this one at home where they have now won 37 straight games. This is a talent-laden Saints team that is...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-07-2010
N. Iowa is 13-4 SU and 11-5 ATS at home this season. Their defense simply dismantles teams here. And, their defense has been getting better. Over the last five games they have allowed just 50 points p...