March Madness Gambling - March 12, 2009

We missed the mark on yesterday's CBB selections. Today we look to rally with seven more premium picks.

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Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Central Michigan vs. Ball State (12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 114.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The Ball State Cardinals are a slow-paced team that relies on defense to keep them in games. They have played 11 conference games where the opponent has not gotten out of the 40s and 50s, and they have played in 12 themselves without reaching the 60 mark. Central Michigan plays a similar style, and it has led to nine of their last 10 games going under the total. Ball St. is now 9-2-1 ATS to the UNDER off a straight-up loss. The last time out these two combined to produce just 97 points. I expect this one to be similar and will back the UNDER here.

Rice certainly can't match Tulsa's talent, so a team that plays slow and methodical will likely do even more of that. The Owls have already played 12 of their last 16 to the UNDER, and in a recent game against Tulsa, the two combined for just 110 points. There was just 101 shots taken by both teams in that game, and a similar result is likely here in this one. Rice has dictated tempo in conference games to the tune of 18 of their last 24 going under the total, and I see this one doing the same. UNDER is the call here.

The Kentucky Wildcats had an impressive run after opening the season with an embarrassing loss to VMI at home, and dropping their next one to North Carolina. The Wildcats went on a tear and went 17-2 after those losses. How things have changed. The Wildcats limped down the stretch as they closed out the season 3-8, including dropping their last four. They were also just 2-9 ATS in those 11 games. Ole Miss has suddenly been an explosive offensive team, averainging 89 points per game in their last two. The Rebels have topped the 70-point mark 16 times on the season, including 85 vs. Kentucky. The Wildcats are just 2-10 SU when they allow 70+, and they have allowed that in each of their last four games. I like Ole Miss here.

Southern Miss really tanked down the stretch as they closed the season at just 1-10. The offense just hit a slump and could never dig their way out as they averaged just 58.7 ppg in their last nine. This from a team that scored more than that average in all but two of their first 21 games. Their game with UAB was no exception, where they were held to just 56 points. The Blazers have closed out the season with four consecutive UNDERS themselves, and with neither team doing a lot offensively right now this total is too high, and I'm backing the UNDER.

The Bowling Green Falcons love a slow-tempo game and it has shown in conference play. They opened the season allowing 82 to Buffalo, and 72 to Kent Stste, but since then no team has scored more than 67 points in regulation time against them, and none of the last three opponents have put up more than 50 points. Ohio, U. has scored 51 or less points in four of their last six games, and this game is going to play slow and ugly. These teams both feature a similar style, and that has led to them playing each of their last five under the total, and I expect this one to go under the total as well.

Memphis has been stopping C-USA opponents cold with a tight man-to-man defense. The last nine opponents have managed to average just 50.3 ppg, and there is no wonder that eight of the nine have gone UNDER the total. Memphis defense has been so dominate that 40 of their last 59 conference games have gone UNDER the total! Enough siad. This one goes UNDER the total.

The Wolfpack, after a slow start, closed out the season strong, at 12-4. Their young players began putting it together, and they won their last three by an average of 15 points a game. That included a pasting of the Spartans by 23, after beating them by 12 on the road earlier in the season. The Spartans closed the season on a 2-7 ATS run and have had no answers against the good teams on their schedule. They have been dismal inside the conference where they are 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 conference games. The Wolfpack is 18-8 ATS in neutral site games in their last 18, and as a chalk of 7-12.5 are an amazing 40-19-3 ATS in their last 62. They beat this team soundly twice, and the third is on its way. Nevada minus the points here.

Results: 2-5

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• View our 2008 NCAA basketball betting preview here.
• Take a look at our NCAA basketball sportsbook reviews here.
• Here we show our 2008 college basketball prior picks results.
• Take a look at our betting college basketball here.
• Take a look at our college basketball Game-of-Day Analysis here.
• View NCAA basketball blog here.
• View our updated college basketball pick.
• View our updated NCAA basketball odds and lines.
• View march madness bracket here.
• Hop over to our NCAA basketball ATS records here.
• Updated today: march madness picks.
• Don't forget to read our college basketball prior picks here.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-11-2009
The Golden Knights didn't close the season in conference play the way they would have liked, but have been an over-achieving team playing above the line. They closed the Conference USA slate with ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-10-2009
The Georgetown Hoyas slipped during the middle part of the season, and it has left them at 16-13. They are still alive in many bracketologist’s eyes for an at-large tourney bid based on the fact...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-09-2009
Looking at this Colonial Conference Tournament, it has been a defensive struggle in just about each and every game, with nine of the 10 games finishing under the total thus far. That isn't much of...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-08-2009
Arkansas is 2-13 this season in SEC play and they are 2-8 on the road. Their defense allows 78 points per game on the road while Vanderbilt holds foes to 63 points per game at home - that's a mass...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-07-2009
Georgia St. has really come on strong late in the season. They posted just five wins against div-1 teams all year, but suddenly have won five of their last six. They have been a very methodical team t...