Basketball Free Gambling Ncaa Pick - March 12, 2008

We laid an egg yesterday but look to bounce back today. We have five picks from conference tournament action as Championship Week heats up...

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Saint Louis vs. Dayton (12:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Dayton -5.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Saint Louis has sure put up some ugly numbers this season, none worse than their 14% shooting, 20-point effort against George Washington. Their last two games have been almost equally ugly, falling by 27 at Duquense and by 20 at home to Saint Bonaventure. The fact is that four of their last six games have been double-digit losses and here comes Dayon, a team that beat them by 11 and 27 points during the season. The Flyers closed strong, have an RPI in the 30s and is squarely on the bubble. A win here puts them up against Xavier, which could be a game to earn an opportunity to get in the NCAA tournament. We like the Flyers to advance here.

After enduring a 4-11 stretch the Eagles of Eastern Michigan turned the corner in early February and became a winning team closing at 6-3. They have also been 4-2 ATS in conference play as a favorite. They turned an early-season close loss to Ball State by four, into an 11-point win as this team began to put it together. Ball State managed just six wins on the season and this team shoots just 40% from the floor and 30% from three-point range, which combines to be just about the worst in the country. The Eagles are the better team and is playing better so we will ride them to advance here.

Bowling Green dropped five of seven games to close the regular season, barely making it into this tournament. They were just 7-9 on the season in MAC play. Toledo hasn't been a whole lot better, but they finished the season with two straight wins including a confidence-building upset over Central Michigan on the road where they won by seven as a 7.5 point underdog. The Falcons are just 11-22 ATS the past two seasons against conference opponents and 7-26 ATS in their last 33 March games. Toledo is 8-1 ATS off a road win the past three seasons and they have covered 16 of their last 19 games coming off a road upset win. We like the Rockets here.

It would be easy to dismiss the Bearcats off of five straight losses and a humiliating loss to Uconn, where they were pasted by 45 points. What they have done is play competitive against some good teams and one in particular - Pittsburgh. Pitt needed a late run to put them away at home, and Cincinnati beat Pitt at home despite foul problems of their two top scorers Williamson and Vaughn. After opening 15-2, Pitt has become very ordinary. They have closed the season 7-7, managing just a 5-9 ATS mark. Not too many of the wins have come easy and we don't expect this one to either. Bearcats are 13-5 ATS as a dog this season and at their best after a loss where they stand at 11-3 ATS. Pitt has not fared well off an ATS win where they have dropped their last five ATS. Like the Bearcats to stay close here.

Rhode Island comes in averaging 86.4 ppg allowed over their last five games. They gave up nearly 80 per game to conference foes while Charlotte allowed just 69 per game. URI lost six of their last seven SU and seven of their last eight ATS while Charlotte has won three straight SU and ATS. Teams that have won four out of their last five games over an opponent that has lost three of their last four hit at a 64% clip when the line is between +3 and -3. This season Charlotte is 9-2 ATS over teams that outscore their opponents by 4+ ppg and 6-0 ATS against teams scoring 77+ ppg. Rhode Island is just 4-11 ATS this season against conference foes and riding negative momentum coming off a double-digit loss to this 49ers team, we see them dropping another here.

Results: 4-1

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• View NCAA basketball betting here.
• Read our NCAA basketball gambling philosophy here.
• Don't forget to visit our ncaa bracket picks.
• Updated today: 2007 season NCAA basketball handicapping preview.
• Hop over to our college basketball Game-of-Day Analysis here.
• Check out our updated 2007 college basketball prior picks.
• Here we show our march madness brackets.
• Updated today: NCAA basketball ATS records.
• Here we show our NCAA basketball picks blog.
• View our updated NCAA basketball pick.
• Check out our updated NCAA basketball prior picks.
• Here we show our NCAA basketball odds lines and spreads.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-11-2008
These teams are about as even as it gets. Especially since Indiana-Purdue won by three points at home then and lost at Oral Roberts by one. There is one big difference. Caleb Green was the best player...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-10-2008
Yes, this is a home game for San Diego. But, it won't matter. The Toreros upset St. Mary's last night to advance to this title game. After a blowout win over Pepperdine and last night's wi...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-09-2008
Florida has the record at 21-9, but where have the wins come from? The Gators are 18-1 vs teams with an RPI of over 100! They are 3-9 vs the top 100. The Gators are also 2-7 ATS in their last nine. Wi...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-08-2008
The Mildcats haven't done much purring in Big Ten play. They have been beaten at home by double-digits in six of eight conference games, and have basically been non-competitive. The Badgers h...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-07-2008
No. 8 and No. 9 do battle this afternoon in the first round of the Southern Conference tourney. The winner gets the privelege of facing Davidson tomorrow. We think it will be Wofford that advances. We...