Ncaa Final Four - March 11, 2010

We added our third winning night in a row last night as we nailed both of our 5-unit CBB picks en route to a 5-4 finish. Over the last three days we have gone 11-8 for +10 units as the conference championships have been good to us.

Today we are back on the college hoops floor with 11 premium picks.

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Miami, Fla vs. Wake Forest (2:25 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 135 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The Hurricanes have been held to the 60s or less in 10 ACC games, and aren't a team that likes to get out and run, but would rather work in the half-court. After touching 70 in 13 of their first 17 games, Wake Forest has slowed to just three topping the 70 mark in their last 11. That has led to 10 of their last 12 playing to the UNDER. The Hurricanes have been 17-8 to the UNDER in their last 25 at a neutral site, while Wake Forest has played 9-3 to the UNDER following an ATS win. These teams have played their last six head-to-head meetings all to the UNDER. I'll play on the UNDER here.

Iowa was expected to be beneath the level of play needed to compete in the Big-12, and they for the most part have proven that. What wasn't expected was the fact that this Michigan team struggled as much as they did. The offense just imploded on many nights, and they failed to even get out of the 40s in four of their last 13 games. The offensive ineptness allowed for the Wolverines to play 14 of their final 17 games to the UNDER. The Hawkeyes aren't much more efficient on the offensive end as four of their last 10 have failed to get out of the 40s themselves. This one looks ugly, will play slow, so points will be hard to come by. I'll go with the UNDER here.

The Cornhuskers worked their plan perfectly upsetting Missouri handily in the tournament opener. After allowing the Tigers 70+ in both regular season games, they slowed them down holding them to 60. A&M has really worked hard on the defensive end after some early-season shortcomings as they have held the last seven opponents to 60 points per game. That has led to six of the last seven failing to reach the total. Nebraska has come back defensive after a win where they are 19-7 to the UNDER after posting a win. These teams have also played four of the last five under, so I like UNDER in this one as well.

The Wildcats’ longest streak of consecutive NCAA appearances is likely coming to an end - unless they can run the table in the Pac-10 Tournament. UCLA has really dropped back after a several-year run at the top. This is a team that laid 100 points on New Mexico State early in the season, but failed to top 77 points in any other game, so they truly have struggled offensively. The Bruins don't have the offense to win this one, so they have to win it on the defensive end, that strategy has produced a 5-1-1 mark to the UNDER in their last seven as a dog of 6.5 or less. The Wildcats are 13-6 as a neutral-court favorite in their last 19. I'll play the UNDER in this one.

The LSU Tigers fell hard and fast. This wasn't supposed to be a banner year for the Bayou Bengals, but they fell off the face of the Earth, generating just a pair of conference wins. They never got out of the 60s in 16 conference games, except one time at home vs. Auburn. Away from the comforts of home, this team reached 60 points just one time without the benefit of overtime, covering 11 games. That means it is likely that Tennessee is going to have to be in the 80s here and that has happened just five times against LSU all season. This one looks low, but it isn't low enough, so I'm playing UNDER here.

The Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles play one of the slowest games in C-USA. When they get into the tournament, those numbers are going down with just 104 points scored in their opener. It is nothing new for a team that is 17-6 to the UNDER over their last 23 games. They are genuinely the Princeton of the Midwest. Both regular season games vs. UAB would have failed to top this total, and with the stakes higher that means the defensive intensity will be higher as well. Southern Miss has played to a 10-1 UNDER mark after a straight-up win. UAB is no stranger to the UNDER either vs. a good team, cashing the UNDER in 11 of their last 15 vs. teams with a winning percentage of over .600. UNDER is the call here.

I wouldn't be fooled by the pair of high-scoring games these clubs played during the regular season as there is suddenly so much at stake in this one. This game will be played much tighter. The Alabama State Hornets have come up with some big defensive efforts this season, and 10 of their last 13 opponents have scored 64 points or less. Alabama A&M has seen each of its last five neutral site games all fail to reach the total, so I don't see this one changing that streak. I'll go with the UNDER in this one.

The San Diego State Aztecs could all but put a lock-up an NCAA bid with a win here. They have been a force, locking down opponents offenses this season. Colorado State has averaged just 53.5 points per game against them this season in the two games played. They aren't alone as only the conference's elite have scored against this team. Colorado State has really been slowed offensively by the top tier of the conference. San Diego has played to a 38-18-1 mark to the UNDER in their last 57 as a favorite, including their last four at a neutral site. I'll go with the UNDER in this one.

It has been a surprising year for the Tar Heels, not that they have fallen off from last year, but just how far they fell. This team has apparently regressed from the onset of the season as offensively, they have really struggled. This is a team that was in the 70s or higher in 15 of their first 16 games, with 11 games at 80+. They never touched 80 again the rest of the season, hitting the 70s on six occasions - quite a decline. They scored just 51 on this Tech team, so looking at the 140s here is simply way too high. The Heels are now under in 17 of their last 22, so I'll go UNDER here.

The Pittsburgh Panthers have always been known for their defensive toughness, and that has carried them through the last decade as a top team. Their last six games have produced just 62 points per game for opponents. While Notre Dame was trying to up-tempo everyone, they started winning when their focus shifted to the defensive end, where over their last five games, all wins, they have allowed just 56.6 ppg. Notre Dame has also played seven straight UNDERs at neutral sites, and Pitt is 7-3 to the UNDER in their last 10 as a neutral-site favorite. UNDER gets the call.

Central Florida may have some "Jordan" blood on the roster with Marcus Jordan, but it is translating better on the defensive end. The Golden Knights have no players averaging more than 10 points per game, and gets it done on the defensive end, now at 9-5 to the UNDER in their last 14. The Miners come in here at 24-5 and like to get up and down, but I don't see that being the case in this one. This is a team that scored in the 50s just four times all season, and two of those have been in the last four games. The pressure mounts as this team is no guarantee for the dance without a win here. I'll go with the UNDER in this one.

Results: 7-4

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Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-10-2010
The Houston Cougars certainly draw attention from oddsmakers as they like to run up and down the floor. The problem is this team carries totals it can't achieve and, despite the big offense, the u...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-09-2010
Bethune Cookman is barely over .500, and Florida A & M well below. Regardless of the outcome here the winner is playing in the play-in game come tournament time. Bethune Cookman, for those that do...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-08-2010
The Siena Saints have been the kingpin in the MAAC for the past three years, and they are playing this one at home where they have now won 37 straight games. This is a talent-laden Saints team that is...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-07-2010
N. Iowa is 13-4 SU and 11-5 ATS at home this season. Their defense simply dismantles teams here. And, their defense has been getting better. Over the last five games they have allowed just 50 points p...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-06-2010
The Sooners have found life without Blake Griffin grabbing every rebound and scoring every big basket not very cozy. The Sooners are having their worst season in a long time and at 13-16 simply are no...