Free March Madness Picks - March 11, 2008
We dropped our pick yesterday as San Diego upset Gonzaga. Three plays today including a 4-unit pick from the Ivy League final.
Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:
Game: Indiana - Purdue at Oral Roberts (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Indiana - Purdue +3 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
These teams are about as even as it gets. Especially since Indiana-Purdue won by three points at home then and lost at Oral Roberts by one. There is one big difference. Caleb Green was the best player on the court last year for Oral Roberts. He did everything including scoring 28 in the final last year. They are missing the guy that can take over a big game. This year it is Ind-Purdue and George Hill. Hill averaged 19 points per game as a sophomore, but was limited to just five games last season. He has come back to be the best player in the conference this season. He is averaging 21.4 ppg, with 6.8 rebounds per game and 4.4 assists per game, as well as 1.5 steals a game. He shoots over 55% from the floor and 45% from behind the arc. Ind-Purdue is the second-best shooting team in the country hitting 50.6% and second in the country in knocking down 3's at 42.4%. This should be a close game and we like the idea of having the player on the floor that can take a game over down the stretch or knock down a big shot on our side, especially getting points.
Game: Penn at Princeton (7:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Game Total OVER 130 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)
The oddsmakers have still not caught up to Princeton totals. They are stuck between the public perception and reality, which is the reason that seven straight Princeton totals have gone over. Is this the famed "Princeton offense" being employed by the Tigers this season? Not even close! Here is the evidence. Last year Princeton Ivy games averaged 80.6 shots per game and if you toss out a 121 possession OT game, the number is 77.5. This season their games are averaging 96.5 shots per game. The next place to look is, maybe that there are more free throws attempted last year that cut down on the total number of shots? The answer? This year there is not only nearly 20 more shots going up in Princeton games, but on average, nine more free throws as well! There is also a difference in the quality of the 3's being taken as they are averaging almost three made three-point shots a game in their games over a year ago. We are seeing 7.5 points per game in additional made 3's, seven more points a game on free throws, and 20 points a game on the additional shots being taken. That means we are looking at an average of 34.5 points a game. Princeton is allowing 68.1 ppg in their last nine Ivy games. To put that in perspective, not a single team scored over 68 points in Ivy competition against Princeton last year! Last year Princeton did not top 56 points in any Ivy game, except for an OT game with Harvard. This season they have reached or exceeded that number in 11 of 13 games. Penn is averaging 71 ppg in Ivy play and giving up over 72. This game has all the markings of a game being played at, or just over 70. Plenty of value here, and we will play the OVER.
Game: Idaho State at Portland State (11:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Portland State -13.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
This game will be played at the Rose Garden in Portland, and for Portland State it is an opportunity for them to reach their first-ever Big Sky title game. Idaho State is 4-13 in road and neutral court games this season. The four wins are over the RPI's worst teams. They have come at the expense of Idaho (No. 302), N. Colorado (No. 275), Montana (No. 235) and Sacramento State (No. 335). Portland State is ranked No. 97 in the RPI. On the road or a neutral court against RPI top 100 Idaho State is 0-4, losing by an average margin of 30.5 ppg! They have played seven games overall against the RPI top 100 and is 0-7 with an average losing margin of 26.9 ppg while losing them all by double-digits. This should easily be a 20-point win for the Vikings and we will give the points.
NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-10-2008
Yes, this is a home game for San Diego. But, it won't matter. The Toreros upset St. Mary's last night to advance to this title game. After a blowout win over Pepperdine and last night's wi...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-09-2008
Florida has the record at 21-9, but where have the wins come from? The Gators are 18-1 vs teams with an RPI of over 100! They are 3-9 vs the top 100. The Gators are also 2-7 ATS in their last nine. Wi...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-08-2008
The Mildcats haven't done much purring in Big Ten play. They have been beaten at home by double-digits in six of eight conference games, and have basically been non-competitive. The Badgers h...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-07-2008
No. 8 and No. 9 do battle this afternoon in the first round of the Southern Conference tourney. The winner gets the privelege of facing Davidson tomorrow. We think it will be Wofford that advances. We...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-06-2008
Saint Bonaventure has won just eight games all season, and the teams they beat are pretty much at the bottom of the barrel. The reason we mention this, is George Washington has played 12 road games an...
