March Madness Pool - March 10, 2010

Our 5 unit picks in the NHL, NBA and CBB are hitting 64% (100-56) on the season.  We continue the Championship week in CBB with nine picks today including another two 5 unit. Over the past three months our CBB picks are 200-181 for +7.6 units.

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: East Carolina vs. Houston (1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 151.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The Houston Cougars certainly draw attention from oddsmakers as they like to run up and down the floor. The problem is this team carries totals it can't achieve and, despite the big offense, the under has gotten the money in 12 of their last 17 games and is just 2-8 when the total is posted at 150+ to the over. These teams played to 129 points in their only meeting of the season and I don't expect ECU is going to game plan getting into a running game here, which has been the case when they have been a solid dog. ECU has played to a 9-2 mark to the UNDER in their last 11 posted as a 7-12.5 point dog and nine of their last ten at a neutral site overall. I'll go with the UNDER here.

The last time these clubs met at the Garden the St. John's Red Storm extended Marquette into overtime before dropping a tough two point decision. Despite the overtime these teams ground out a defensive struggle that produced just 122 total points. I would expect a lot of the same in this one. St. John's has now played to a 34-16-1 mark to the UNDER in their last 51 Big East games. They have also played UNDER to a 17-8-1 mark vs teams over .600. The Golden Eagles enter here with five straight UNDERS in their last five in the role of a favorite. UNDER gets the call in this one.

The Green Wave have mustered just two wins in their final 13 games and one of those took overtime. This is a team that has absolutely no offense and has spent six games not able to break the 50 mark. They have also had 15 games on the season where they were in the 50s or less. Southern Miss has held an amazing 21 of their last 27 opponents to 60 or less, but have failed to get out of the 50s in 12 of their last 21 themselves. Points will be at a premium in this one. Southern Miss after a straight up win has seen nine of their last ten fail to top the total, and I like the UNDER in this one.

Air Force had its run, but they are back to being a below average team that plays a methodical offense. This is a team that has not gotten out of the 40s in six of their last seven games with 12 of their last 17 failing to reach the total. There isn't a single team on the Air Force div-1 schedule that has topped 75 points this year, so Wyoming getting in the 70s isn't a likely candidate here as they have averaged 60.5ppg in the two meetings this season. The Cowboys are also 14-3 to the UNDER following an ATS win. I like this one to stay UNDER the total.

It has been a long season for the Rice Owls with just eight wins, but not so unexpected. The Owls took a lot of losses from the offense and it has showed as this team struggles with long droughts on the offensive end, especially against a good defensive team like the Tulsa team they will face here. They managed just 58 in their only meeting this season. Tulsa has kept 13 teams in the 50s or worse and a lot of those teams are poor offensive teams like Rice. It has led to Tulsa playing UNDER to a 9-2-1 mark vs teams with a winning percentage of under .400. Rice has also played to a 37-15-1 mark to the UNDER vs teams with a winning percentage of over .600. I'll go UNDER in this one.

The Irish are 7-4 UNDER on the road this season, 11-7 UNDER in conference games and 4-0 UNDER in their last four games. THey have held their last four opponents to just 56.8 points per game. This Seton Hall offense will present a big challenge for Notre Dame but I think they will step up to it. The Pirates are 12-2 UNDER the past three seasons when coming off three straight wins. They are also 11-2 UNDER in their last 13 games after scoring 75+ in three straight games. Notre Dame is 21-11 UNDER the past two seasons as a favorite. They are also 14-3 UNDER in all neutral-court games and 10-1 UNDER in March! I like this one to go UNDER the total.

The CS Fullerton Titans have played five of their last 12 games into overtime as they become college basketball's version of the cardiac kids. That has also inflated their total numbers on the high side. It has added 164 points to the last 12 game totals or close to 14 a game, and their 113-112 OT game with Northridge raises the stakes onto this total. Northridge has played to unreasonably high totals and when they have played to a total in the 140s or higher, with no overtime, seven of the last eight have stayed UNDER. This one is set beyond what is reasonable with a lot of value on the UNDER, which is my call here.

Central Florida, aside from a crazy overtime game vs Marshall, has struggled down the stretch offensively. Their other 11 games show them averaging under 60ppg. These teams are evenly matched and even in the won-loss column, both are entering at 14-16. SMU has had its own struggles scoring points. The Mustangs had one shootout with Houston, but otherwise over their last ten they are also under 60 points a game. This one certainly looks to play in the 50s. These teams have combined to go UNDER in 21 of their last 27 C-USA games, and I don't see anything changing here. I'll go with the UNDER.

The Anteaters played OT in their last game and managed 91 points, so this has moved the total here up. The fact is they reached even 80 just one time in their previous 17 games and on the season have topped the 70 mark just seven times in their last 22 games without the benefit of overtime, so clearly this is posted on the high side. They have played to just three totals all season of 140 plus, without overtime, with all three going UNDER. Cal Poly has been historically an UNDER team when the game venue moves to a neutral site, where they are 11-3 to the UNDER in their last 14. I'll play this one to stay UNDER the total.

Results: 5-4

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Check out our updated free college basketball picks.
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• Hop over to our ncaa march madness brackets here.
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• Take a look at our NCAA basketball sportsbook reviews here.
• View our updated college basketball Game-of-Day-Preview.
• Check out march madness pick here.
• Check out 2009 college basketball prior pick season results here.
• Check out 2009 season NCAA basketball handicapping preview here.
• Updated today: college basketball against-the-spread standings.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-09-2010
Bethune Cookman is barely over .500, and Florida A & M well below. Regardless of the outcome here the winner is playing in the play-in game come tournament time. Bethune Cookman, for those that do...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-08-2010
The Siena Saints have been the kingpin in the MAAC for the past three years, and they are playing this one at home where they have now won 37 straight games. This is a talent-laden Saints team that is...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-07-2010
N. Iowa is 13-4 SU and 11-5 ATS at home this season. Their defense simply dismantles teams here. And, their defense has been getting better. Over the last five games they have allowed just 50 points p...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-06-2010
The Sooners have found life without Blake Griffin grabbing every rebound and scoring every big basket not very cozy. The Sooners are having their worst season in a long time and at 13-16 simply are no...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-05-2010
This is a matchup of teams that have each lost 20 or more games, with an opportunity to extend their season. It should present an intensity that translates to defense. These teams did play a game in W...