March Madness Point Spread - March 08, 2009

We went 4-3 yesterday for a winning day in college hoops (boosting us to 94-73 over the past two months). Combined with a 3-0 performance in NBA and NHL yesterday, it was a great day. In March we are now 35-18 (66%) for +54 units across all sports! Today we have five college picks...

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
CBB	94-73 last 167 picks	56%	+$1770
NBA	196-142 last 338 picks	58%	+$11650
NFL	72-44 last 116 picks	62%	+$7320
NHL	19-11 last 30 picks	63%	+$3700
TOTAL			+$24440

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Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Arkansas at Vanderbilt (2:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Vanderbilt -8.5 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)

Arkansas is 2-13 this season in SEC play and they are 2-8 on the road. Their defense allows 78 points per game on the road while Vanderbilt holds foes to 63 points per game at home - that's a massive 15 points per game difference. And given that these offenses are equal, that means a lot. Over the past two seasons, the Hogs are just 4-14 ATS on the road! I like the Commodores to roll here.

Western Michigan has title hopes in the MAAC West Division and that motivation should carry them here. Central Michigan is just 2-12 on the road this season where they average under 60 points per game while allowing near 70. Western Michigan has been terrible on the road (3-13) but decent at home where they sport a winning record. The difference between these teams is defense as the Broncos allow just 60.6 points per game at home. The Chippewas coverd the spread last game but that's a bad omen for them as they are just 7-16 ATS over the past two seasons in that situation. They are also just 2-11 ATS under coach Ernie Zeigler coming off a home conference win. I like the home team here.

A win here gives the victor a ticket to the Colonial title game tomorrow night. Both of these teams got here by way of defense. ODU allows just 60.8 points per game and over their last five games, that has dipped to 57.8. VCU allows 64 points per game and over their last five, that has dropped to 56.4 ppg. This season the Monarchs are 7-1 UNDER on the road vs. good defensive opponents (those holding foes to 42% or less from the field). They are also 8-2 UNDER on the road vs. conference opponents. The Rams are a perfect 8-0 UNDER the past three seasons as a neutral-court favorite. I like the UNDER here.

We get a nice treat on CBS today as No. 7 Duke visits No. 2 North Carolina. After losing back-to-back games to UNC and BC, Duke has won five in a row. Unfortunately, they are in for a rough go of it today I think. The reality is, the Blue Devils are very good, but not great. And very good doesn't cut it vs. the Tar Heels at the Smith Center. After losing their first two conference games, Carolina has won 12 of 13 games. UNC has dominated this series lately having won five of the last six. The last time they met, Carolina won by 14 points. And Duke had the home crowd support in that one. This place will be rocking this afternoon and the fact remains that Duke is 9-4 on the road. They score about 10 points less per game away from home, averaging 72 per game. That won't be enough to keep up with UNC who averages 93 per game at home. Duke is just 31-51 ATS the past decade in March games and I again expect an underperformance here.

The No. 11 seed Towson Tigers knocked off Northeastern last night in a huge upset. Now they get to face the No. 2 seed. Towson beat Drexel in the first round as a seven-point dog. They were a 10-point underdog last night against Northeastern. How are they doing it? Defense! They held Drexel to 62 points on 33% shooting and they held Northeastern to just 54 points. Towson is 8-2 UNDER this season coming off a win. George Mason is also playing great defense as they have held their last three opponents to under 60 points. George Mason has been a defensive stalwart all season long. In 19 conference games, they allowed just 58.3 on average, going 13-5 to the UNDER. So I expect more great defene in this game. The UNDER gets the call.

Results: 3-1

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Check out our updated 2008 NCAA basketball gambling preview.
• Don't forget to visit our college basketball betting.
• Here we show our 2008 college basketball pick season results.
• View college basketball handicapping philosophy here.
• Updated today: college basketball Game-of-Day Analysis.
• View our blog college basketball here.
• View our college basketball handicapping here.
• Don't forget to visit our college basketball odds and lines.
• Read our ncaa bracket picks here.
• Hop over to our college basketball ATS standings here.
• Read our march madness pick here.
• Take a look at our NCAA basketball prior predictions here.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-07-2009
Georgia St. has really come on strong late in the season. They posted just five wins against div-1 teams all year, but suddenly have won five of their last six. They have been a very methodical team t...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-06-2009
It took awhile for Georgia St. to come together as a team, but they were tough down the stretch. They opened the season at 5-16 and could have packed it in, but to their credit, hung in there and bega...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-05-2009
The Matadors are 10-4 in league play and the Aggies are just 5-7 at home. So, laying a tiny price on this one looks good. Cal Davis is coming off a loss to UCSB, but they covered the spread in that ga...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-04-2009
The Tar Heels’ offense continues to put up points in bunches, but the team refuses to play defense, relying on out-scoring everyone. They are atop of the ACC with an 11-3 record, but they are ju...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-03-2009
The higher seed, playing at home, is getting points here in the opening round of hte Horizon League Tournament. It doesn't make sense and I'm jumping on the home dog. Illinois-Chicago posted a...