Free March Madness Predictions - March 08, 2008

We posted a breakeven night as we went 3-3 and covered the juice thanks to 2-1 on our 4-unit plays. Today we have five plays including a 4-unit selection in the big North Carolina vs. Duke matchup!

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Wisconsin at Northwestern (3:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Wisconsin -13.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The Mildcats haven't done much purring in Big Ten play. They have been beaten at home by double-digits in six of eight conference games, and have basically been non-competitive. The Badgers have destroyed the weak teams in the league, even on the road, winning at Illinois by 14, at Penn St by 25, and at Michigan by 16. Wildcats are playing no defense at all, allowing 49% from the field and over 40% from three-point range. The bigger problem is off the glass. They have had six conference games where they finished with 18 rebounds or less and seven where they have gotten four offensive rebounds or less, and have been out-rebounded by 10+ a game. Wisconsin in a blow out!

The Orange need a win to entertain hopes of making it to the Dance. But, we don't think they'll get it today vs. #21 Marquette. The Orange lost three straight before beating Seton Hall on Wednesday. If you feel the "must-win" nature of this game favors Syracuse, what happened when they had to win vs. Louisville, Notre Dame and Pittsburgh? Granted, the Louisville and Irish games were tough tasks. But they were at home and favored by 2.5 over Pitt in a critical game and couldn't win. Marquette has held their last five opponents to just 58.8 per game, winning those games by an average of 16 points. Syracuse' defense is much, much worse. The Cuse has never been a good team at home vs. very good opponents. They ahve dropped 33 of their last 50 ATS here vs. teams that outscore their opponents by 4+ ppg. Marquette on the other hand is 27-14 ATS the past three seasons in the favorite role and 6-0 ATs when coming off a 30+ point blowut win. Syracuse is 1-7 ATS this season after scoring 85 points last game. Yes, Cuse needs this. But they won't get it.

UNLV is coming off a horrible 45 point performance vs. Mexico while Utah is off a confidence-boosting 82-61 smack down of Colorado State. When playing the better teams in the Mountain West this season, UNLV has really struggled offensively. Utah should be very motivated here as they are tied for fifth place with Air Force and this game will end up being important. The Utes have a defense nearly as good as UNLV's and their offense is better, so they have a decent shot here. Over their last five games, Utah has averaged 67.4 while UNLV has averaged just 61.6. Utah has won 11 of their last 12 games following a 20+ point blowout win over a conference rival. On the flip side, Lon Kruger coached teams are 4-11 coming off a road loss in which they scored under 60 points. We'll go with Utah here at the very nice payout.

South Florida certainly has played better down the stretch. But with a UConn loss and a chance to capture the #3 seed in the Big East tournament, and the motivation to avoid a tough #4 vs #5 match-up, the Irish will take this game seriously. The Bulls have struggled against the Big East teams that knock down a lot of three pointers, and the Irish are about as good as it gets at 41.4%. This is also an important game to the Irish for NCAA seeding. They are looking at a #3 seed, with an opportunity in the Big East tourney to perhaps sneak up to a #2 spot if they run the table. Irish by double-digits here.

We are really looking forward to watching the latest installment in one of the best rivalries in all of sports. The #6 Blue Devils host the top-ranked Tar Heels. Both teams are 13-2 in the ACC. This game will decide the conference title and the seeding for the upcoming tournament. NC is getting more press thanks to possible player of the year Tyler Hansbrough and a seven game winning streak. But, we think that has forced this line to be off, as we think Duke should be favored by more. Cameron will be rocking beyond belief here and we think that gives Duke a distinct advantage. The Blue Devils are perfect (15-0) at home this season. They have already proven they can beat the Heels, taking care of business in Chapel Hill on February 6th. That game wasn't even close as Duke won by 11 on the road. Duke has the better defense, averaging 64.7 ppg allowed at home this season vs. NC's 74.0 allowed on the road. That's over 13 p oints of difference! Another way to look at the strength of these defenses is to compare how they affect their opponents' offenses. This season, all Tar Heel opponents have averaged 72.1 ppg yet they have averaged 72.9 vs. North Carolina. So, NC is allowing their foes to score more than they normal average! Duke on the other hand is holding foes to 68.8 overall, 3 points less than their overall average. Big difference. And the offensive edge? Goes to Duke too! They are getting 89.2 per game here while the Tar Heels average 85.6 per game on the road. NC has revenge motivativation you say? Well, yes. But is it a revenge avantage? No. Teams revenging a loss as a favorite facing an opponent off a road win, scoring 85+ points are just 15-45 ATS the past five seasons. In other words, revenge doesn't necessarily work, especially if the team that one the first game is VERY good. The Blue Devils are that good. They are 6-0 ATS this season at home vs. college basketball's elite (those teams outscoring opponents by 4+ ppg). They are 10-3 ATS overall at home. This is a team that gets up for big games. Under Coach K, they are 58-40 ATS in Saturday games and 11-3 ATS at home vs. explosive offensive teams (those averaging 84+ ppg). It doesn't get much bigger than this and in Duke we have the better team statistically on both sides of the ball. They have proven they can beat the Heels and they don't crumble under pressure. Finally, they are at home which gives this team a huge edge and we have to lay a very small number. Dukies here.

Results: 1-4

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Read our sports betting NCAA basketball here.
• Don't forget to read our NCAA basketball betting approach here.
• Here we show our ncaa march madness.
• Don't forget to visit our 2007 college basketball gambling preivew.
• Updated today: college basketball Game Preview.
• View 2007 NCAA basketball season picks here.
• Don't forget to read our ncaa tournament picks here.
• Check out NCAA basketball ATS records here.
• Don't forget to visit our blog NCAA basketball picks.
• Don't forget to visit our college basketball free picks.
• Don't forget to visit our NCAA basketball picks.
• View NCAA basketball lines here.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-07-2008
No. 8 and No. 9 do battle this afternoon in the first round of the Southern Conference tourney. The winner gets the privelege of facing Davidson tomorrow. We think it will be Wofford that advances. We...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-06-2008
Saint Bonaventure has won just eight games all season, and the teams they beat are pretty much at the bottom of the barrel. The reason we mention this, is George Washington has played 12 road games an...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-05-2008
Let's set the stage for this pick. How big is the Duke vs. North Carolina game? It means everything to the fans, coaches, recruitment, and players. How distracting is it to the players knowing it ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-04-2008
It's hard to ignore what the Broncos have done this season. After a slow start, they have now won eight of nine, but haven't been a particularly good road team all season where they have ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-03-2008
If you've faded Fresno State this season, your putting funds in your account on a regular basis. The Bulldogs are on a nine game ATS losing streak, and 11 of 12 as well. Utah State has been one of...