Basketball Free Picks - March 07, 2010

After a very good start to the conference tournaments, we have struggled the past two days. Today is the day we turn it back around with eleven picks.

WUNDERDOG 2010 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
NFL	46-29 last 75 picks	61%	+$4060
CFB	25-10 last 35 picks	71%	+$6040
MLB	265-219 last 484 picks	55%	+$8370
CBB	189-172 last 361 picks	52%	+$560
NHL	258-184 last 442 picks	58%	+$14690
WNBA	121-90 last 211 picks	57%	+$5490
TOTAL			+$39210

 

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Wichita State vs. N. Iowa (2:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on N. Iowa -3 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 114 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

N. Iowa is 13-4 SU and 11-5 ATS at home this season. Their defense simply dismantles teams here. And, their defense has been getting better. Over the last five games they have allowed just 50 points per game! The differences in these teams is actually much bigger than it appears on the surface. Look at the results vs. the common opponents this season. While Wichita State went 14-5 straight-up in these games compared to 16-2 for N. Iowa, the ATS results tell the real story. In these games, Wichita went just 10-9 ATS while N. Iowa went 13-5 ATS. Take the better team here - N. Iowa and the UNDER.

Siena has been their best on the road. While going just 5-6 ATS at home this season, on the road they are 11-5 ATS. Their defense has been great since conference play began, especially of late. They have held four of their last five opponents to 61 points or less. Only Butler put up more. In conference games this season, Rider has been below .500 ATS. Siena is 18-1 in conference games and 11-6 ATS. When facing the cream of the crop (teams that outscore their opponents by 4+ ppg), Rider wilts as they have gone just 1-7 ATS vs. such teams this season. The Broncs are also just 4-11 ATS this season after a win. Meanwhile Siena is 15-8 ATS as a favorite and 8-1 ATS on the road vs. conference foes. Siena gets the call here.

These teams seem pretty even but I like Stony Brook here. In a conference tournament game, experience matters. This team has four returning starters from last year while Boston has just one. Stony Brook has won 11 of their last 12 games, even winning last game by NINE points despite shooting just 36% from the field. I will go with the more experienced team here.

Clemson should not be close to a pick 'em here. Clemson is 14-2 at home but just barely over .500 on the road. Wake is 12-2 at home, winning by over ten points per game. When facing a winning team on the road, the Tigers are awful, having gone just 1-9 ATS! Under Oliver Purnell, the Tigers are also awful on the road after a high-scoring game. After games in which 165+ points were scored, they are 2-11 ATS under Purnell. If both teams scored 80+, they are 0-7 ATS. Meanwhile, under Dino Gaudio, the Deacons are 21-11 ATS at home and 11-2 straight-up as a small favorite. Clemson gets exposed here.

Wofford looks to revenge a road loss in December to the Catamounts. While W. Carolina won that game, they are just 8-8 on the season on the road, with a losing ATS mark. In stark contrast, the Terriers are 12-7 SU and 10-5 ATS on the road. Wofford owns the much better defense to the tune of ten points per game allowed on the road this season. When facing winning teams on the road, the Catamounts own a 40% ATS mark over the past decade. They are just 15-25 ATS in conference games since last year. Wofford and the UNDER gets the call here. 

Mount St. Mary's is just 6-11 on the road this season, getting outscored by three points per game. Yet, they are expected to be virtually even against a team that is 11-3 at home? Yes! This is a trap line and I'm not biting. They have an excellent defense that is peaking right now. They have held their last five opponents to an average of just 53 points per game. That's a lot better than Robert Morris is playing. Against common opponents this season, St. Mary's gave up a full five points per game less. I like the hotter team here getting points.

The Hilltoppers' offense has been off the hook of late. They have scored 78+ in five straight games, averaging 85 per game. Compare that to Arkansas State who has scored 63, 57 and 54 in the last six games. When facing a winning team over the past three seasons, W. Kentucky is 35-18 ATS. That includes a 14-5 mark during late-season play. In neutral-court games, they are 10-1 ATS as a favorite over that same span including 8-0 ATS in Conference tournament games! They are a perfect 6-0 ATS after scoring 75+ in three straight games and 7-0 ATS after five straight wins. Take W. Kentucky here.

S. Alabama has really struggled offensively of late. They have scored 54 or less in three straight games. Against weaker foes, this team can score. But against good teams, they don't. This team is just 11-22 ATS the past two seasons vs. winning teams. Granted, Troy doesn't have a great defense, but it will be good enough considering their offense averages 77 points per game. I like Troy to get it done here.

This total is set sky-high and I like the game to come in UNDER. While Charleston started off as a big-time OVER team, they have gone UNDER in three of their last five games as inflated lines have come into play. In games with a line in the 150s, Appalachian head coach Buzz Peterson is a perfect 8-0 UNDER. With tournament pressure in place, defensive intensity picks up. I like the UNDER here.

Results: 5-5

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Don't forget to visit our college basketball free picks.
• View our updated NCAA basketball previous picks.
• Check out ncaa bracket picks here.
• Don't forget to visit our betting NCAA basketball.
• Don't forget to read our college basketball odds lines and spreads here.
• Check out blog college basketball here.
• View our updated college basketball sports book.
• Here we show our NCAA basketball Game Preview.
• View march madness pick here.
• Check out our updated 2009 college basketball picks results.
• View 2009 NCAA basketball handicapping preview here.
• View our updated NCAA basketball against-the-spread records.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-06-2010
The Sooners have found life without Blake Griffin grabbing every rebound and scoring every big basket not very cozy. The Sooners are having their worst season in a long time and at 13-16 simply are no...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-05-2010
This is a matchup of teams that have each lost 20 or more games, with an opportunity to extend their season. It should present an intensity that translates to defense. These teams did play a game in W...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-04-2010
These teams played twice in the regular season, with both games going over the total. The MVC has had a long history of tight, low-scoring games in their championship rounds, despite what might have h...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-03-2010
The Navy Midshipmen have not done much on the road all season with just three wins. They have, for the most part, been uncompetitive with a scoring margin on the road of just about -11 points per game...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-02-2010
When these teams first met this season in February, Coastal Carolina cruised to a 30 point home win. There's a very good chance that they will take VMI a bit lightly here. After all, VMI is just 2...