Ncaa College Basketball Predictions - March 07, 2008
It's Conference Tournament Friday. We went 2-2 last night. Back today with six picks including two afternoon games from the Horizon League and Southern Conference tournament.
Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:
Game: W. Carolina vs. Wofford (3:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Wofford -2.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
No. 8 and No. 9 do battle this afternoon in the first round of the Southern Conference tourney. The winner gets the privelege of facing Davidson tomorrow. We think it will be Wofford that advances. Western Caronlina has a 2-14 mark away from home this season, yet the oddsmakers have them as nearly a pick'em here. The Catamounts are averaging just 59.6 ppg away from home while allowing 70.9. Wofford started out strong but ended the season on a 1-6 run. But, they have the edge here. They hit 38.8% from beyond the arc and W. Carolina is 0-6 ATS this season vs. teams that hit 37% or better. The past two seasons, Wofford is 11-2 ATS after having lost 4+ of their last five games. We like them to win and cover this one.
Game: Bradley vs. Creighton (3:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Bradley +1.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Braves will have the services of Ruffin for this game and that has proved to be the difference maker in their games. The Braves have been 2-7 without Ruffin and 15-7 with him. The Braves have covered 10 of the last 11 Ruffin has played. Creighton has not been a good team defending the three-pointers this season giving up nearly 37%. The Braves have been the best 3-point shooting team in the MVC, as they have connected on 143-350 for 41% in conference play and have been even better against Creighton hitting 27-56 for 48.2%. The Braves are a unique team as even though they shoot a lot of three pointers, they still get to the line 21 times per game and hit 75% of their free throws. Bradley gets the win here.
Game: Drexel vs. Delaware (6:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Delaware -1 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
Drexel tied for the worst record in the Colonial at 5-13. They squeaked in here as the 10th seed via tie-breaker over James Madison and Georgia State. Delaware is the much better team. Sure, they don't have the recognizable name, but they had their second-best finish in seven years in the CAA. They come in off three straight 74+ point performances to face a team that averaging just 57 ppg on the road. Drexel just isn't very good this season (3-11 ATS vs. losing teams) and their scoring will be the problem. They come in off a 48 point performance vs. Hofstra and they are 2-11 ATS this season after scoring 60 or fewer points. Home team in this one.
Game: Valparaiso vs. Wright State (6:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Wright State -1.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
These teams met in the regular-season finale in a barn-burner that Valpo won at home in OT. That was even with Wright State coming off an emotional loss to Butler on the road by just five points. It tells us that on a neutral court Wright State is the better team. Wright State is 19-6 in their last 25, covering four straight. This is Valpo's first experience in the Horizon Tournament and they may come out a bit nervous. Wright won this tournament last year and has the talent to do it again. We will ride the better team - Wright State to come away with the win.
Game: Columbia at Princeton (7:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 113 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Still believe the books are living in the past, or at least think the public is. Either way the value on Princeton and low totals is now on the OVER. Princeton used to hold Ivy teams in the 30s and 40s as a rule. Princeton has now allowed no less than 64 points in their last seven games and is averaging 60 points per game on the season in Ivy play. Columbia's 12 Ivy games have averaged 124 ppg total and this low total certainly isn't a reflection of what they have been doing. Hard for the odds-makers to move the Princeton totals too far upward where they belong, or the action becomes lopsided and Princeton has now played five-straight OVERS and tonight will be number six.
Game: Portland vs. Pepperdine (11:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Portland -1.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
Portland is a very low-scoring team. During the season they had just one double-digit scorer in Nik Raivio. But, Robiin Smeulders has really come on of late, adding some punch. With a 4-13 road record, why are they favored? Because they should win this game! Pepperdine's defense is horrendous, allowing 81.7 ppg on the road this season. They allowed opponents 41 rebounds per game (7 more than their opponents averages). Portland put up an average of of 74 ppg in the two prior meetings this season and they will score here vs. Pepperdine and get the win.
Results: 3-3
NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
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