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Game: U C O N N vs. Syracuse (2:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Syracuse -3.5

This UCONN team continues to be respected, yet their level of play this season has not warranted it. This team has played eight games as an underdog, and has not come close to covering one yet. There are several reasons why. When UCONN plays at home, they are a bad shooting team. When they move out of their building and play against the good teams, they are about the worst shooting team in the country. The last seven games against this level of competition away from their building (Georgetown, Syracuse, Georgia Tech, DePaul, St. Louis, Pitt, and LSU), they have shot 34.2%. These numbers aren't because of a couple bad games. The highest they shot in any of them is 37.9%! When they get pushed out beyond the arc, it is even worse. They shoot just 23-103 or 22.3%. They are last in the Big East Conference in FT percentage, and equally horrible in the types of games mentioned above, as they hit just 51.2%. They shoot an equal amount of free throws as their opponents in these games, but get outscored from the line by 6.5 points a game. So basically they are giving up nearly seven points a game at the foul line every game. They have taken more shots than their opponents in these games nearly half the time, yet have never out-scored them from the line! They beat Syracuse at home by seven. Syracuse had five players in foul trouble in that game, which will not be the case here. They bottled up Adrien inside with their zone, as he was able to generate just six points. Jerome Dyson was on fire from behind the arc, at one point hitting five in a row, yet the Huskies still lose by 10 points. UCONN averages just 54.2-points per game (PPG), against these teams out of their own building. Syracuse has been steadily improving. They have won five of their last six, and have had four different leading scorers in the past five games. This game should be an easy 10+ point win for Syracuse.

This game will be a contrast in styles as Duquense loves to push it up and down the floor. St. Louis prefers a half-court game. The team that ends up dictating tempo here is the likely winner. Duquense has faired well against St. Louis winning this year, and holding a 4-1 series advantage. They have been able to get the pace up in virtually every game. There has been lots of bad news over the years for this program, and this game may be like the run they had earlier in the season, winning five in a row, as they dedicate their performance to fallen teammates. We would not be surprised if Duquense wins this game, but we certainly are confident they keep it close.

East Carolina has managed just five wins on the season. Three of those came to opponents that are not even Div-1A. The other two are both teams rated over 200 in the RPI. Tulsa is rated 110, and for measuring sake, and perspective, UCONN is 103. East Carolina has lost 15 games by more than this line, and against teams in the top 125 in RPI has managed just a single game within this point-spread. Tulsa has averaged winning by 19-ppg vs. RPI 240+ teams, and E. Carolina is at 316. They already own an 18-point win over E. Carolina, and this game should be in that same range.