Final Four Bracket - March 06, 2010

After an 8-4 start to conference tournament play, we faltered yesterday.  We look to bounce back today and build on our three month record of 187-168 for +13.1 units.  Today we have six premium picks including a couple early game selections and a 4 unit play.

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Texas A & M at Oklahoma (12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Texas A & M -3.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The Sooners have found life without Blake Griffin grabbing every rebound and scoring every big basket not very cozy. The Sooners are having their worst season in a long time and at 13-16 simply are not a Big-12 caliber team this season. They have seemed to regress and have now dropped their last seven games. Texas A&M used to be the doormat in the Big-12, but that has changed over the last several years. The Aggies have put together another 20+ win season and that includes 9-3 in their last 12 in conference play, losing only to Oklahoma St., Baylor and Kansas.  They certainly are taking care of the lesser teams and I like them to pick up the road win and cover here.

Maryland has to be a bit down emotionally after breaking a six game losing streak to Duke with a huge home win over the Blue Devils. The Cavs have really struggled being short on talent and experience and it has led them to one choice, to play slow, manage the clock and shorten the game. The Cavs consequently have scored just over 56ppg in their last nine, with eight of their last ten  having failed to reach the total. The Cavs are now an amazing 31-10 to the under in their last 41 posted as a dog of 6.5 or less. I'll go for this one to stay UNDER the total.

The Boise St. Broncos have proven one thing over the last two years, and that is they are a team that can score. Last year it was good for a 19 win season, but that hasn't translated into this season as they have too many defensive breakdowns. After a cupcake early season schedule, they have struggled and in their last 17 games they own just five wins. One of them was not against the Spartans who beat them by two points in the only meeting. The Broncos are showing a disastrous 2-8 ATS mark at home vs a road team with a losing road record. To many points here in a close game, I'll go with San Jose in this one.

The Cornell Big Red had one hiccup in the Ivy, but otherwise they have dominated. They are not the typical Ivy team and are considered a high scoring team, and off of scoring 95 this total gets bumped a bit. The reality is this team has played 9-5 to the under in their last 14 games. Yale knows they have to slow this team down or they have no chance, and over their last three games Yale has really slowed the tempo with all three failing to reach the total.  I would expect more of the same here tonight. The Big Red is 17-8 to the under in their last 25 games and I look for this one to stay UNDER the total.

The SMU Mustangs have played Houston in a shootout a couple games ago, but by and large that doesn't happen much with this team. The Mustangs have played their other ten games in the last 11 to 70 or less. Equally important, 15 of their last 17 opponents have scored 70 or less, so to get this total over something unlikely will have to occur and I see a lot of value here. The Thundering Herd are 8-2 to the under as a road favorite of 6.5 or less and also 11-3 in their last 14 on the road to the under. SMU is 8-1 to the under in their last nine posted as a dog and nine of their last 11 in conference play have failed to top the total. I'll play the UNDER here.

The Ragin Cajuns dropped their last six in regular season play ATS and appear to be on a negative momentum trail. The Warhawks finished up the season with four straight in the loss column and have not been playing any better, so it comes down to the better team, which is UL Lafayette. The Cajuns have bounced back off a poor offensive showing scoring 50 or less with a 5-1 ATS mark and they have also own a 7-2 ATS neutral site mark in their last nine. The Warhawks have really struggled away from their own arena, posting just a 3-12 mark on the season. I will go with UL Lafayette in this one.

Results: 2-4

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Here we show our NCAA basketball picks.
• View NCAA basketball prior predictions here.
• Take a look at our ncaa march madness brackets here.
• Updated today: NCAA basketball betting approach.
• View college basketball odds and lines here.
• View our updated blog college basketball picks .
• Check out our updated sportsbook reviews college basketball.
• Take a look at our NCAA basketball Game-of-Day-Preview here.
• View our updated ncaa march madness pick .
• View 2009 college basketball season prior picks here.
• Don't forget to visit our 2009 NCAA basketball preview.
• View our college basketball ATS recrds here.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-05-2010
This is a matchup of teams that have each lost 20 or more games, with an opportunity to extend their season. It should present an intensity that translates to defense. These teams did play a game in W...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-04-2010
These teams played twice in the regular season, with both games going over the total. The MVC has had a long history of tight, low-scoring games in their championship rounds, despite what might have h...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-03-2010
The Navy Midshipmen have not done much on the road all season with just three wins. They have, for the most part, been uncompetitive with a scoring margin on the road of just about -11 points per game...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-02-2010
When these teams first met this season in February, Coastal Carolina cruised to a 30 point home win. There's a very good chance that they will take VMI a bit lightly here. After all, VMI is just 2...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-01-2010
There is not much of a gap between these two Southern Conference bottom dwellers that come into tonight's game with a combined 15-43 record on the season. NC Greensboro has found the win column ju...