College Basketball Ncaa Tournament Predictions - March 05, 2008

We went 3-3 yesterday, with a heartbreaking triple-OT loss on our +190 moneyline dog. Oh well. Today we have eight picks with another 4-unit selection.

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Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Duke at Virginia (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Virginia +5.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)

Let's set the stage for this pick. How big is the Duke vs. North Carolina game? It means everything to the fans, coaches, recruitment, and players. How distracting is it to the players knowing it is their next game on the schedule? EXTREMLY! Duke is about as dominant of a home team as there is in the country. Since the 2000-01 season, they have lost just seven games at home covering almost eight years. The seven losses have come the following ways. They have lost two to NC, one to Maryland, and get this, four to teams immediately preceding their big game against NC! The fact is that they have lost more home games in this spot than they have in over 100 other home games! That is four out of 10, to 1 out of 88 other games not involving NC! So how have they fared on the road, since they are playing this game in Charlottesville? They have dropped three of five and one of the wins was in OT, and is 1-4 ATS. Overall they are 3-12 ATS before NC! This class of SR's 0-5! They aren't just failing to cover these games, they are not coming close. In their 12 ATS losses before NC, Duke has failed to cover the spread by an average of 10.9 points per game! Virginia got off to a horrific start in ACC play, but has since covered five straight including four straight as a dog. Remember, they lost to NC by just one during this rejuvenated stretch. Overall, Duke has been struggling on the road. They escaped with a one point, come-from-behind win at NC State, lost at Miami and were blown out by Wake Forest. Think at the very least Virginia comes close here, if not getting the outright win.

La Salle's upgraded out-of-conference schedule is paying road dividends in A-10 play. Early losses to lowly Howard and Morgan State have changed, as this team begins to gel. The Explorers have more road wins (9), than any other team in the A-10, and are a perfect 7-0 ATS on the A-10 road, and at 11-0-1 has not gone down ATS on the road all season! The Explorers are connecting on 53-115 from beyond the arc in their last five A-10 games, good for a sizzling 46.1%! UMASS has had trouble against the top of the conference. They are just 2-4 SU against teams that are .500+, in the A-10 and of the two wins none have come by more than seven points. UMASS is also just 2-8 ATS vs. teams with a winning road record. Too many points here, we will ride the road hot Explorers to hang tough.

The Cajun Cats are on the improve after dropping their first five games in SEC play. LSU has now won three straight, while also on a 7-2 ATS run. LSU began the season searching for answers bankrupting backers to the tune of 2-12 ATS along the way. The Cats dropped their first three SEC home games by an average of 15 points per game. They lost at home to Tennessee by just two and a hot Kentucky team by four points while winning impressively at Florida, and Ole Miss at home. A net scoring deficit of -72 in the first half of SEC play has become a +14 over the second half (seven games each). The Tide started 10-3, but has since been just 5-11, and has broken through on the road just once all season. They are just 2-6 ATS on the road, and it took scoring 19 points in the last two minutes against Ole Miss to squeeze out a cover, in a game that was never in doubt on the scoreboard. They also eked out a 1.5-point cover at Mississippi State. These teams are heading in different directions, so we like the Cats at home.

The Bulls have been dreadful on the road since becoming a member of the Big East. They have just a 2-22 SU mark, but have treaded water ATS standing at 12-12. There are significant signs that this is changing, and part of that 12-12 ATS mark is due to the fact the Bulls have now been money on the Big East road where they are 4-1 ATS in their last five. They went through the doldrums of losing nine of 10 on the Big East road by more than 10 points, but have since turned it completely around. The Bulls have since gone six straight on the Big East road not losing by more than 10. Their last four Big East games have been decided by four points or less. This is a line based on what the Bulls didn't do in the past, not what they are doing now. Nova has lost three Big East games at home and in their five wins, four of them have come by 2, 2, 7, and 1 point. The Bulls hang tough here, so we will grab the points.

Georgia has dropped 10 of 11 while Auburn has lost two straight and three of four. Both teams have really struggled in SEC play with seven wins and 21 losses between them. But someone has to win here. We like Georgia's chances here with the better defense. Auburn has given up over 80 ppg over their last five games and 78.4 per game in conference play. Georgia's numbers are much better than that by nine points per game. We like the Bulldogs for the rare road win and upset here.

The Bulldogs have the type of defense that could stop Vanderbilt once and for all at home. The Bulldogs allow just 36.7% shooting, and more importantly, do as good a job as anyone stepping out and defending the 3-pointers, as they allow just 31%. With four double-digit scorers, they also have enough scoring to win this game as well. The upperclassmen also have a bad taste to erase, as their only other trip here resulted in a 28-point loss. Vandy hasn't taken a hit in the win column at home all year, but have had some close calls with four of their SEC games being decided by seven points or less. We think Mississippi State presents the right type of team to put an end to the home winning streak, or at least be right there at the end of this one.

TCU has just one road win this season. Their problem has been offense as they average just 60.1 ppg on the road. They have a decent defense. They are getting an Air Force club here that also has a terrible offense - actually worse than TCU's! The Falcons are averaging 69.6 per game on the season and just 55.9 since conference play began. That's seven points per game less than TCU. Their defense has been slipping of late. TCU is actually the hotter team having won two of their last three and three of their last six. This is obviously going to be a low-scoring affair and that gives anyone the chance to win. The Falcons are just 2-7 SU the past two seasons when the total is under 120. We like TCU's chances here, especially at +230.

These two teams are so different we should have a double-digit spread here. Pacific is 10-5 in the Big West, 20-9 overall and coming off three straight wins. Riverside is 7-19 overall and has lost four of six games. They are just 3-11 in conference games, scoring only 59 ppg. Pacific is 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS against Riverside lifetime. Riverside is 7-20 ATS in their last 27 home games coming off a road loss while Pacific is 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games with a total under 130.

Results: 3-4

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Take a look at our NCAA basketball sportsbook reviews here.
• Don't forget to read our NCAA basketball handicapping philosophy here.
• View our updated ncaa basketball tournament picks.
• View our updated 2007 season NCAA basketball handicapping preview.
• Don't forget to read our college basketball Game-of-Day Analysis here.
• Don't forget to visit our 2007 college basketball pick season results.
• Hop over to our ncaa tournament picks here.
• Updated today: college basketball against-the-spread standings.
• Hop over to our NCAA basketball picks blog here.
• View college basketball pick here.
• Hop over to our NCAA basketball prior predictions here.
• Here we show our NCAA basketball lines and odds.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-04-2008
It's hard to ignore what the Broncos have done this season. After a slow start, they have now won eight of nine, but haven't been a particularly good road team all season where they have ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-03-2008
If you've faded Fresno State this season, your putting funds in your account on a regular basis. The Bulldogs are on a nine game ATS losing streak, and 11 of 12 as well. Utah State has been one of...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-02-2008
Providence has dropped eight of nine and sit at 4-10 on the road this year. They are facing a team that is 10-5 at home. Yet, they are a small dog. That tells us what we already believed - the od...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-01-2008
After a 13-0 start the Rebels have fallen hard and this is a must win game if they have any NCAA tourney aspirations. They still have an RPI hovering in the mid 40s and they have to close with some wi...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-29-2008
The Big Red have a three-game lead atop the Ivy League standings, so why get up for this game against lowly Dartmouth? They have won 12 straight and are perfect in conference games. They are coming of...