Ncaa Picks - March 04, 2010

We missed on our two picks last night and hit the CBB floor with five more premium selections. 

WUNDERDOG 2010 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
NFL	46-29 last 75 picks	61%	+$4060
CFB	25-10 last 35 picks	71%	+$6040
MLB	265-219 last 484 picks	55%	+$8370
CBB	181-161 last 342 picks	53%	+$2280
NHL	255-182 last 437 picks	58%	+$14220
WNBA	121-90 last 211 picks	57%	+$5490
TOTAL			+$40460

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Southern Illinois vs. Drake (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Drake +3.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 134.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

These teams played twice in the regular season, with both games going over the total. The MVC has had a long history of tight, low-scoring games in their championship rounds, despite what might have happened in the regular season. Southern Illinois has led the way with a 10-3 mark to the UNDER at neutral site games in their last 13, and Drake has been 5-2 in their last seven as a neutral site underdog. I'll go with the UNDER in this one. Southern Illinois is not the team they have been in the past. And although they are always tough at home, they are now 1-7 ATS in their last eight at a neutral site. Drake stands in with a 7-2 ATS mark as a dog of 6.5 or less. I'll go with Drake here, along with the UNDER.

Toledo has had an absolutely miserable season, coming in at 4-26, but an even worse road mark of 0-14. That looks pretty grim, but there is another story here. This was a team that couldn't cover anything they were given, beginning the season at 3-8 ATS when being given doubles. They have improved to the point of turning those ugly numbers around by going 5-2 ATS when given 10+ since. Northern Illinois has struggled down the stretch with just a single win in their last 12 games, and the margin of victory in that game was a slim 2 points. They have also been just 1-5 ATS facing a team with a winning percentage of less than .400. The dog has only failed to cover in two of the last nine in this series. I will go with Toledo here.

These teams played twice during the regular season, with both games exceeding the total, but the conference tournament has had a long history of games being played a lot lower. Missouri State has played each of their last four at a neutral site to the UNDER and they are 9-3 to the UNDER in their last 12 MVC Tournament games. These teams have met twice in this tournament over the last seven years, scoring 115, and 116 in the two games. I'll play this one UNDER the total.

The Arizona Wildcats have lost their offense. After going nine Pac-10 games averaging 75.8 points per, the Wildcats have dropped off dramatically. Their last six has seen the average dip to 66 ppg. That is a loss of 10 ppg over a solid three week period. The defense has kept them in games as their last five at home has shown them allowing 66 ppg as well. That alone trends value on the UNDER. Also, when you add in UCLA's last six as a dog of 6.5 or less, showing none surpassing the total things look even better. The Bruins haven't exactly been lighting it up either as they have averaged just 64.6 ppg in their last 13 Pac-10 games. This one is set too high, so I'll go with the UNDER here.

Results: 4-1

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Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-03-2010
The Navy Midshipmen have not done much on the road all season with just three wins. They have, for the most part, been uncompetitive with a scoring margin on the road of just about -11 points per game...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-02-2010
When these teams first met this season in February, Coastal Carolina cruised to a 30 point home win. There's a very good chance that they will take VMI a bit lightly here. After all, VMI is just 2...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-01-2010
There is not much of a gap between these two Southern Conference bottom dwellers that come into tonight's game with a combined 15-43 record on the season. NC Greensboro has found the win column ju...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-28-2010
The Wildcats are just 4-6 straight-up on the road, but they cover the number, having gone 8-2 ATS this season. Meanwhile, Penn State is just 3-9 ATS at home and they are really struggling to score sin...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-27-2010
The UAB Blazers have positioned themselves at 22-5 to get an at-large bid even if they don't win their conference tournament. They are not the type of team however to take down big numbers and thi...