March Madness Bracket Predictions - March 04, 2009
Over the last three months our college hoops picks are 83-67. Today we roll with five premium CBB picks today...
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Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:
Game: North Carolina at Virginia Tech (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Virginia Tech +9 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)
The Tar Heels’ offense continues to put up points in bunches, but the team refuses to play defense, relying on out-scoring everyone. They are atop of the ACC with an 11-3 record, but they are just 6-9 ATS, so despite their good offense, the defense is allowing a bunch on the other end for teams to stay within the number. Virginia Tech is another tournament bubble team. A win tonight makes a loud statement and puts a prize on the resume, so their "A" game is likely. Tar Heels are now 0-7 ATS following an ATS win, while the Hokies have shined in this big home dog role going a spotless 5-0 ATS their last five as a dog of 7-12.5. The Hokies hang around in this one for the cover.
Game: Miami at Georgia Tech (7:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Miami -2.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Miami is in desperation mode right now. They sit firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble. They have a very healthy RPI which will help them, but at 17-10, and just 6-8 in the ACC, there is much work to be done. A loss tonight and they might kiss their hopes good-bye. It has been a bad year for Georgia Tech as they stand at just 1-13 in the ACC and their season is a bust regardless of what happens tonight. The Hurricanes have competed well, losing five of their eight losses in the ACC by five points or less - three of those five were OT losses. Tech has now dropped seven straight in the ACC. They have also lost four straight ATS and are just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games, so they have been as bad as they look. I like Miami to win this one convincingly, and a win vs. North Carolina Sate in their ACC finale could see the ‘Canes climb to 19-10, and 8-8 in the conference, and be looking good for the tournament.
Game: B Y U at Wyoming (8:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 2 units on Wyoming +8 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)
BYU has not been a strong road team over the years, and this line is a bit inflated. The Cougars were just an 11-point chalk at Pepperdine, who has won all of eight games this season in a lesser conference. They were posted at -10 at Idaho State who has won 12 games all season. The Cowboys have won 18, but more importantly they have been 15-1 at home. They have also been on a roll winning four straight and covering their last five. They already own straight-up wins vs. UNLV and San Diego State - two teams with NCAA Tourney potential from the Mountain West. The Cowboys have gotten up for the big games at home where they are now 6-0 ATS against teams with a .600 winning percentage or higher. There are simply too many points here, so I'm backing Wyoming.
Game: New Orleans at South Alabama (8:20 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on New Orleans +12 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
The Jaguars are 17-12 but that did not meet the expectations this team had coming into the season as they have under-achieved all season long. A testament to that is their horrible 8-18 ATS mark for the year, and they are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven as a double-digit favorite. One of those ATS losses as a big favorite was a narrow escape vs. New Orleans by three at home. New Orleans is in a down year, and teams like this have slipped the attention span of this Jaguar team all season. They are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine on their home court, while New Orleans has bounced back from an ATS loss by following it up with a 6-1 ATS mark and are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning record. New Orleans hangs tough and gets the call.
Game: Texas A & M at Colorado (9:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Colorado +7 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
While the Aggies have been solid in conference play at home at 5-2, the reverse is true when they hit the road where they are just 2-5. The two wins have been by just two points at Nebraska and by six points at Texas Tech. The only two other times they have won on the road all season was in OT at Alabama and on the road vs. Rice. The Buffalos are just bad, sitting at 1-13 in their last 14 games, but the measuring we are looking at here is how they have fared against the line. Despite having just one win, they are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games. That means the points have mattered in seven of the 12 games. I believe the points will matter tonight as well, as the Aggies have not beaten anyone on the road by more than six. I'll go with Colorado to get the cover here.
Results: 3-2
NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-03-2009
The higher seed, playing at home, is getting points here in the opening round of hte Horizon League Tournament. It doesn't make sense and I'm jumping on the home dog. Illinois-Chicago posted a...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-01-2009
The regular season finale for both of these teams features the Gaels favored by 7.5 points. Are they worthy of that? Given their 7-10 mark in conference play, and 3-5 ATS record at home, I don't t...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-28-2009
Notre Dame has certainly displayed the firepower to put up a lot of points, but the Huskies have one of the top defenses in the country, and that has been personified at home. The Huskies have played ...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-27-2009
Brown opened the season with promise as they dropped a two-point decision on the road at 21-8 Rhode Island, and it has been a battle ever since. They currently sit at 1-9 in the Ivy League. That may s...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-26-2009
This is a most difficult spot for Pepperdine as they will face a very good St. Mary's team that is fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives. The Waves just have no talent and have lost their last ...
