Free Basketball Pick - March 04, 2008

Swept our picks yesterday 3-0, good for +6.5 units. Tonight we have six plays...

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: W. Michigan at C. Michigan (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on C. Michigan +3 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

It's hard to ignore what the Broncos have done this season. After a slow start, they have now won eight of nine, but haven't been a particularly good road team all season where they have a losing record. Most of what they have done has been on the defensive end of the floor, as the offense is shooting just 43% on the season and ranked #221 in the country. Defense does not translate as well on the road, and Central Michigan has only lost to conference leader Kent State at home, where they are difficult to play. The Chipewas have cashed in at home vs teams with a losing road record to the tune of 8-3-1 ATS last 12 and we will ride them in this one.

Horizon Tourney action begins tonight with Detroit travelling to the Nutter Center to face Wright State. The Titans haven't put many in the win column, but they have been competitive within the conference. Their conference season is book-marked by an opening 16 point loss at Wisconsin Green Bay and a 34 point loss to end the season at Butler. The Titans were solid in their other 16 league games, as no other losses were by more than 10 points, and they finished covering five of their last seven, and went 3-1 ATS overall as a double-digit dog. Wright State should be named the cardiac kids. They completed an excellent season winning 20 games, but an amazing six of them were by 1 point and 13 were by 5 or less. The only two games all season that would cover this pointspread were a 16 point win vs two-win Presbyterian, and an opening game win vs lowly Coastal Carolina. This team has won just one game by double-digits all season, and barely, by 11. This line is the product of a 20-win team vs a 7-win team, but by reading the above, you can see they are much closer than that. We will ride the overlay here and back the Titans.

Akron comes in off a 20 point blowout win while Ohio is off a 24 point loss. If that were not enough to make Ohio the hungrier team here, the Bobcats are looking for revenge for a 1-point loss to Akron in January. We expect a top effort here from Ohio. This team has been unbeatable at home this season (11-0), winning by 12 ppg on average. Their defense is awesome as they have held opponents to 60.5 ppg here this season and their average in 14 conference games has been 58.1 ppg on 40.8% shooting! The Bobcats are riding a 39-16 ATS streak at home vs. winning teams and a 87-62 ATS run as a favorite. This season they are 8-2 ATS at home. They are also 11-2 ATS the past two seasons revenging a loss.

Wake isn't feeling it right now. Since beatingn Duke on Feburary 17th, they have lost three straight including their last game in OT, getting outscored in the extra quarter by 8 points. That win over Duke was very impressive, but that came at home where the Deacons are 14-2. On the road this season they are a horrible 2-9. Virginia Tech is 12-2 at home and 7-4 ATS. They have held opponents here to 59.4 ppg. Compare that to Wake's defensive average of 76.5 on the road (78.6 their last five games overall). Wake is on a 30-48 ATS run as a road dog while Virginia Tech is 7-1 ATS this season at home off a win. We like the Hokies to roll here.

The Ohio Valley Conference tournament kicks off with a #4 vs. #5 matchup. We like the dog to advance here. Samford won three of their last four games. UTM holds an 0-5 all time record in this tourney. Add in the fact that they were crushed in their regular season finale, losing by 39 points, and you have a weak psyche for the home team here. This is a classic matchup of offense vs. defense. Samford averageed just 58.6 ppg on the season but did it because they wanted to slow things down (they shot 46% from the field). The Bulldogs were great on the defensive end, holding foes to 60.5 ppg (conference opponents managed just 59 per game). UTM scored 76.8 ppg but allowed 76.7 (over 80 in their last five). In a high-intensity tournament game, we think the team with a nearly 20 ppg defensive advantage has a great shot to win the game. The Skyhawks are just 4-13 SU the past two seasons vs. slow-down teams like Samford (those taking under 54 shots per game). Samford is 7-5 this season on the road and 7-5 in the underdog role. They lost to UTM as a favorite at home earlier and they are 8-2 the past three seasons revenging a home favorite loss. We like the dog to win outright here.

This is a crucial game for both teams, but in particular, Ole Miss. The Rebels sit squarely on the bubble and a loss here could seal their fate, keeping them on the outside looking in. The Rebels have dropped just two games at home all season, and we certainly don't see them picking up a third to a Razorback team that has struggled on the road all season. The Razorbacks have managed road wins at LSU, and Auburn, which happen to be the two worst home teams in the SEC this season. The Razorbacks sport just a 1-7 ATS mark on the road this season. They gave up 73 to Vandy at home which is the most points they have yielded at home in their last 13, where they allow just 61.2 ppg. The road has been much different, where they have been torched for 80+ in four of eight games. That makes this a tough chore, as Ole Miss is averaging 80 ppg in SEC home games. There's simply too much offense here and we will back the Rebels.

Results: 3-3

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• View our updated NCAA basketball sportsbook.
• Check out our updated college basketball handicapping philosophy.
• Don't forget to read our ncaa tournament picks here.
• Here we show our 2007 college basketball gambling preivew.
• View our updated NCAA basketball Game-of-Day Analysis.
• Here we show our 2007 college basketball picks results.
• View ncaa march madness brackets here.
• View college basketball ATS recrds here.
• Check out our updated blog college basketball.
• Check out our updated college basketball pick.
• Don't forget to visit our NCAA basketball picks.
• Don't forget to visit our college basketball odds and lines.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-03-2008
If you've faded Fresno State this season, your putting funds in your account on a regular basis. The Bulldogs are on a nine game ATS losing streak, and 11 of 12 as well. Utah State has been one of...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-02-2008
Providence has dropped eight of nine and sit at 4-10 on the road this year. They are facing a team that is 10-5 at home. Yet, they are a small dog. That tells us what we already believed - the od...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-01-2008
After a 13-0 start the Rebels have fallen hard and this is a must win game if they have any NCAA tourney aspirations. They still have an RPI hovering in the mid 40s and they have to close with some wi...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-29-2008
The Big Red have a three-game lead atop the Ivy League standings, so why get up for this game against lowly Dartmouth? They have won 12 straight and are perfect in conference games. They are coming of...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-28-2008
Notre Dame has been unbeatable at home, but the road has been a different story especially against the top of the conference. They were humiliated at Georgetown by 19 points and at Marquette by 26. As...